Srain Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 If/when Ma-on shakes off that dry air it gulped today, it'll be off to the races... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 suddenly getting more interesting.. 92W is now a TD on JMA's analysis maps, while the JTWC has issued a TCFA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 So... What kind of scenario is Japan looking at? JTWC suggests a real threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 00Z ECMWF shows a Kyushu landfall at Day six. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 I have a feeling we're going to see explosive intensification today. The eyewall is slightly broken on the northeast side, but a poleward outflow channel appears to be developing on the satellite derived winds. Once we get the OFC and the eyewall completes, this storm is going to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Still looks like it is suffering from either a little bit of dry air or some shear from the North, or probably a bit of both. CIMMS imagery suggests it isn't perfectly aligned with its anticyclone. There is some dry air to its North, but without the 10 to 20 knots of shear, I don't think it would affect Ma-On so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 The eye cleared out nicely in the last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Still looks a little South heavy to me, but much better than just 6 hours ago. UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 14 JUL 2011 Time : 171500 UTC Lat : 20:13:29 N Lon : 143:42:46 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.9 / 941.3mb/112.4kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.9 5.6 5.6 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km Center Temp : -14.1C Cloud Region Temp : -65.2C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Ma-on 2004 Looks like Ma-on and Japan don't mix well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Any word yet on whether any Eastern Hemisphere types are planning a Japan chase? Japan itself, one of the major world economic powers, I imagine the'll be plenty of home-grown uploaders of fine videos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 JTWC up to T5.5 (102 kts) and SATCON has 114 kts at 16z. The true intensity is probably somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 The 12Z ECMWF is kind of a worst case scenario for Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 With a storm this large and intense for quite some time, plus the coastline shape of the Sern islands and S Honshu, with lots of inlets and bays, how bad would the storm surge be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 ECMWF at 120 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 It's sub 920 at 96, and probably close to that at 120...and it recurves over Japan, that would be a historic hit verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 It's sub 920 at 96, and probably close to that at 120...and it recurves over Japan, that would be a historic hit verbatim It'll probably rapidly unravel, just like cyclones usually do as they approach Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Since 1977 there have been 4 major hits (SS equivalent) from Kyushu north. All were cat 3 equivalents, the strongest being ~110kts 1 min (Flo '90, Yancy '93...the other two were Wynne '80 and Bart '99) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 It'll probably rapidly unravel, just like cyclones usually do as they approach Japan. SSTs are rather high close to the Japan SE coast (well, the whole coast)... shallow but consistent 28-29C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Day 5 12Z ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Day 5 12Z ECMWF That's the plymouth lo-res version... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 It'll probably rapidly unravel, just like cyclones usually do as they approach Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Day 5 12Z KMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 That's the plymouth lo-res version... I don't have access to the high-res version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 I don't have access to the high-res version. http://www.ecmwf.int/ Get the postscript file and zoom in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Anyone knows if/how the UK Met text products correspond to the SS scale? Ma-On should be 'Intense' at its closest approach (near miss) of Kyushu. Off to Wki 'Yaku Shima and 'Amami o Shima'... JMA 915 mb on the 17th @ 18Z... Edit- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amami_O_Shima Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Still sporting a sick moisture plume. Something also tells me that the invest to its west is not really going to matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Anyone knows if/how the UK Met text products correspond to the SS scale? Ma-On should be 'Intense' at its closest approach (near miss) of Kyushu. Off to Wki 'Yaku Shima and 'Amami o Shima'... JMA 915 mb on the 17th @ 18Z... Edit- http://en.wikipedia....i/Amami_O_Shima I think "Intense" is hurricane force winds, so it doesn't gives you much info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 More random porn...that eyewall is ever so close now to locking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 I think "Intense" is hurricane force winds, so it doesn't gives you much info. They actually use 850mb relative vorticity as a proxy for max wind speed. I've never seen what the qualitative descriptions correspond to. The messages are primarily designed to give an indication of the Met Office global model's forecast track of tropical cyclones, which are known to exhibit some skill. Explicit forecasts of maximum wind speed are not given as the model (at its current resolution) cannot resolve the wind field with sufficient detail. However, a qualitative indication of forecast wind strength is given based on the model's relative vorticity field (at the 850 hPa level). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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