Superstorm93 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 impressive. Well established outflow on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Looks stronger than 40kts in my opinion... RI already?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 Looks stronger than 40kts in my opinion... RI already?? I'd have said yes until that last AMSU pass. I honestly don't have any idea what it is going to do. Poleward outflow is still suppressed, so it's not a perfect set up for RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Wow, a prettycane. Looks really nice and might get interesting if those models pan out eh? Even if the models are being a bit aggressive, still going to be a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 nice equatorward OFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Hard to find anything that will prevent explosive intensification from Ma-On. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Seems to really be working on that core... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 yeah definitely... latest SSMI 85Ghz, looking better compared to 2 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 yeah definitely... latest SSMI 85Ghz, looking better compared to 2 hours ago btw, what do you guys think about Invest 92W east of the Philippines, could it influence Ma-On or what?? The models were showing a southerly dip in terms of Ma-On's track a few days but have since veered from that scenario, now mostly expecting an early recurvature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 The microwave looks more like developing rainbands with a loose core rather than the RI ring signature, imo. We'll see. I brought it to Cat 2 by tomorrow morning and Cat 5 by Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I think its a typhoon already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Gets interesting near the end of the loop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 I think its a typhoon already Meh, it's close. T3.5 or T4.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Looks like the eye-like feature from earlier has collapsed, so he's still at the throat-clearing stage. However, with new hot-tower development near the core, I think we see a good deal of increase in organization today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 After the hiccup over night, 12z GFS is right back to a Kyushu/Shikoku landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 65 knots per JTWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 This should be a photogenic cyclone without a doubt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 This should be a photogenic cyclone without a doubt... [kush]cinnabun[/kush] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 After the hiccup over night, 12z GFS is right back to a Kyushu/Shikoku landfall. yeah huge shift again, and CMC and NOGAPS also shifted it seems, now showing Shikoku landfall... i'm kinda liking the EURO here, very consistent... although i wouldn't want this hitting any land if it does become Cat 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 [kush]cinnabun[/kush] with a massive cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 yeah huge shift again, and CMC and NOGAPS also shifted it seems, now showing Shikoku landfall... i'm kinda liking the EURO here, very consistent... although i wouldn't want this hitting any land if it does become Cat 5... And of course the Euro is backing off the uber-bomb on this run, at least through 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 And of course the Euro is backing off the uber-bomb on this run, at least through 120 I will be super disappointed if I don't get to see something 150kts+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I will be super disappointed if I don't get to see something 150kts+ JTWC only 110 knots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I'm far more interested in the potential interaction between 92W and Ma-On.... Ma-On is likely to become a super typhoon no doubt, but depending on how fast 92W gets organized, it could have a significant impact on the track and intensity (affecting the outflow of Ma-On if it organizes fast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 JMA upgrades to a 70kt Typhoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 JMA upgrades to a 70kt Typhoon... SATCON was 83 kts (1-min) at 15z. JMA sounds about right for a 10-min average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 SATCON was 83 kts (1-min) at 15z. JMA sounds about right for a 10-min average. Whoa. SATCON up to 100kts at 17z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 And of course the Euro is backing off the uber-bomb on this run, at least through 120 lol i know! the track seems the same, although yeah it has backed down on that intensity, prolly a fluke?? EURO was certainly one of those first models that showed a very strong STY solution for S. Japan, now it's barely Cat 3 I'm far more interested in the potential interaction between 92W and Ma-On.... Ma-On is likely to become a super typhoon no doubt, but depending on how fast 92W gets organized, it could have a significant impact on the track and intensity (affecting the outflow of Ma-On if it organizes fast) good thing i'm not the only one seeing this... Whoa. SATCON up to 100kts at 17z. JTWC Dvorak up to 5.0 as of 1732z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 Since I bash them a lot, I feel like I should give JTWC credit here. They're going for RI to a high end 4, well above conventional guidance. Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Since I bash them a lot, I feel like I should give JTWC credit here. They're going for RI to a high end 4, well above conventional guidance. Good for them. I've mentioned in previous years that because of the lack of data, they are in a tough position with the number of run-to-run model changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.