patrick05 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 here's a CCTV footage, not sure how far the tornado touched down though (it should be within the area) but you can see a rapid increase in winds... the uploader also mentioned the winds came from different directions... a black out happened, he says, just before the strongest winds went by... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Other witnesses described the event as an ipo-ipo (whirlwind). Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Boomer, This thread is primarily being used for the Northwest Pacific, and not activity that might be occurring in the South Pacific. If you are interested in the activity going on in the South Pacific, I recommend that you post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 Meari crapped out in the Yellow Sea as expected. The subsident phase of the MJO is headed toward the WPAC for the next week to ten days, so I'm not expecting much activity here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 Wow, Meari had a much bigger impact than I was expecting (though it wasn't a typhoon)... http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/Typhoon-Meari_2011-06-27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 jeju island is south of the peninsula so the storm was still strong at that point?? when's the next genesis do you think?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 29, 2011 Author Share Posted June 29, 2011 when's the next genesis do you think?? Just basing it on the large scale pattern, maybe around July 15? It's the WPAC, so you don't need the MJO to get something to spin up, but it won't be something we see coming a mile away either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 ECMWF is showing this weak TC forming east of Luzon.. seen it for at least 4 runs now, although very far away about 8 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Invest 94W now rated "LOW" by JTWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 3, 2011 Author Share Posted July 3, 2011 Invest 94W is kinda meh, but it has a conducive environment ahead of it. Not expecting much out of it at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 It looks ok, but it needs time to gel and I think it might towards the middle of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 lol so many invests out there... i counted 3 all embedded in that monsoon trough... 95W is in SCS... do they (NRLMRY) have like a criteria on when to put up an invest and when not to? i'm thinking 96W will win in the end, who's your bet?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 94W is a goner. Will get sheared out tonight/tomorrow. Next shot again looks to be near Luzon in about 6 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 your July 15 prediction might turn out right... the shear is just too much out there what if there was no monsoon trough, do you think we could have had a TC by now...?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 what if there was no monsoon trough, do you think we could have had a TC by now...?? That's a tough question. Without the monsoon trough, where would the pre-existing disturbances come from? I doubt easterly waves would be able to make it all the way across from the Atlantic to the West Pac this early in the season. I mean, we're ahead of climo right now in the basin. We've already had, what, 5 TCs and a Cat 5, so I don't think we're doing too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 7, 2011 Author Share Posted July 7, 2011 Next shot again looks to be near Luzon in about 6 days or so. And maybe a kushstorm out by the Marianas late next week, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 This would be interesting if it verifies. TCHP is unimpressive South of about 25º, so I'll hotlink the more cheerful SST map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 just doesn't want to die... now a TD according to JMA (1000hpa, 30kt-winds) | i'm more interested in 90W to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 We've got TD 8 east of the Marianas. Has a shot at becoming an STY in a few days once the TUTT to the west dissipates. I agree with JTWC's intensity forecast early on, but would be more aggressive on Days 4/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 taking the high road above the marianas FTL i like the looks of it, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 oh, finally!!! we've cycled through almost 10 invests and now we get one TD... EURO runs have been pretty scary, especially for Okinawa and the Ryukyus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Damn We haven't seen a Euro beast like that since Yasi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 now upgraded to TS both by JMA and JTWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 12, 2011 Author Share Posted July 12, 2011 We haven't seen a Euro beast like that since Yasi. That was the last time we had such model convergence like this, too. The Euro ensemble is tightly clustered on a track towards Southern Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Looks like it might not have consolidated a single center yet, judging from satellite loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 12, 2011 Author Share Posted July 12, 2011 Looks like it might not have consolidated a single center yet, judging from satellite loops. It looks like there are two centers, but they are pretty close together and I'd imagine they'll merge later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Yowza... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 EURO very strong as well.. although west and makes landfall in Kyushu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 now up to 40kts by JTWC, 45kts by JMA also a recent discussion from Guam .DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGGREEMENT TODAY ABOUT THE MONSOON TAIL OF TS MA-ON BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE MARIANAS THU-FRI...AND HAVE LEFT THAT FORECAST UNCHANGED. THE OUTSTANDING FEATURE OF TODAY'S MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE LARGE FIELD OF STRONG WINDS THE GFS PRODUCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS MA-ON...PRODUCING 30 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE CENTER OF MA-ON NEARLY 700 MILES AWAY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO EXPECT SUCH A DEVELOPMENT...SO FOR NOW HAVE USED MORE REALISTIC ECMWF WINDS OUT TO DAY 5...WHICH RESULTS IN 20-25 KT WINDS FOR THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIVING THE CENTRAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF MA-ON DOWN MUCH FURTHER THAN THE MODELS NORMALLY DO: 948 MB IN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT AND 914 MB IN THE ECMWF MONDAY MORNING--THE LOWEST SLP I HAVE EVER SEEN IN A MODEL TYPHOON. THUS...PERHAPS THERE MAY BE SOMETHING UNUSUAL ABOUT MA-ON THAT WOULD RESULT IN AN EXPANDED MODEL WIND FIELD. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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