am19psu Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The monsoon trough is active due to the MJO and a Kelvin wave moving eastward from the Maritime Continent could be the trigger for the first TC of the year in the West Pac. Join kush, aslkahuna and me discussing the West Pacific here through the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The monsoon trough is active due to the MJO and a Kelvin wave moving eastward from the Maritime Continent could be the trigger for the first TC of the year in the West Pac. Join kush, aslkahuna and me discussing the West Pacific here through the season. Images? I like to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Images? I like to watch. Here is the Kelvin wave forecast (looks like it is too fast though): Strong divergence aloft already at 140E. That's where genesis has the best chance this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Hey, nice new thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 WPAC averages about 1 warned system every two years in March with a typhoon about once in every 5 years. In April, the WPAC averages 0.8 warned systems and 0.4 Typhoons. Steve Interestingly, I got an email last week that showed 80% of calendar years have had a TC prior to today's date. However, there are some big years that were late starters, such as 1964 and 1966, so all hope is not lost for kush. As far as the WPAC potential goes, the area highlighted yesterday is now Invest 95W. It's going to be a race between development and interaction with a mid-latitude trough over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 95W looks like it is going to end up more like a Slopgyre (TM U_Thant) than anything else before getting yanked northeast by the mid-latitude trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Interestingly, I got an email last week that showed 80% of calendar years have had a TC prior to today's date. However, there are some big years that were late starters, such as 1964 and 1966, so all hope is not lost for kush. As far as the WPAC potential goes, the area highlighted yesterday is now Invest 95W. It's going to be a race between development and interaction with a mid-latitude trough over the weekend. That may be but the TC prior to March 31st in any given year is most likely to have occurred in January or late March since January has the same averages as March and between the two we have more than 1 TC on average per year. February is the low point of the year. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 oh come on!! i was contemplating on making this thread today!... kidding! that invest has been on the models for about a week now, and also piers corbyn made a "forecast" about a ts hitting the philippines during this period... obviously it doesn't look that interesting at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Invest 96W (near Vietnam) is now Tropical Depression 01... 25 kts accdg. to JTWC and probably won't strengthen that much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Invest 96W (near Vietnam) is now Tropical Depression 01... 25 kts accdg. to JTWC and probably won't strengthen that much... Wow, that's some weaksauce right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Half a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Half a storm. Also in an unusual position for a March Storm since the environment is usually still hostile for TC formation there in March and early April. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Half a storm. where do you get these types of images..?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 where do you get these types of images..?? I'm not Ed but.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I'm not Ed but.... http://www.ssd.noaa..../trop-epac.html thanks! btw.. TCFA issued for the invest east of the Philippines... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Invest 95W was such a tease. Looks like it will be quiet for the next week or two across the West Pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 JMA is already classifying it as a TD, why the difference with JTWC?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Well, we have TD Two in the West Pac, but it's pretty lame already. It's getting sheared strongly from the SW and there is already a moisture gradient, if not a temperature gradient across the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Back in the days when JTWC was at Guam and also the warning agency for the Pacific and we had aircraft flying recon, I seriously doubt that either one of these two systems would have made it even to the Formation Alert stage. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Back in the days when JTWC was at Guam and also the warning agency for the Pacific and we had aircraft flying recon, I seriously doubt that either one of these two systems would have made it even to the Formation Alert stage. Steve Yeah, they were both complete garbage. In other news, 97W is in the extreme southern South China Sea, but it looks like shear will prohibit development. Nothing else is on the radar screen for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Back in the days when JTWC was at Guam and also the warning agency for the Pacific and we had aircraft flying recon, I seriously doubt that either one of these two systems would have made it even to the Formation Alert stage. Steve speaking of recon... do you think they will have that ITOP again this year?? that was really helpful especially during STY Megi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 There isn't going to be much happening for at least the next week in the West Pac. Nary even a Kelvin wave in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 could this be the future "Aere"...?? from NRLMRY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 could this be the future "Aere"...?? from NRLMRY Both the ECMWF ant the UKMET send it to the Philippines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 4, 2011 Author Share Posted May 4, 2011 Was just coming into post about this. Fast transition of the MJO FTW. It should be noted that the GFS was picking up on this storm over a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Not a fast mover per GFS. Floods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 4, 2011 Author Share Posted May 4, 2011 Not a fast mover per GFS. Floods? If it even gets onshore. Tricky forecast nearly parallel to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 If it even gets onshore. Tricky forecast nearly parallel to the coast. Actually storm tracks east and nearly parallel to the coast in the Philippines can result in some industrial grade rainfall due to the intensification of the SW flow feeding into the storm across the islands Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 If it even gets onshore. Tricky forecast nearly parallel to the coast. I have a feeling that the cyclone will track more equatorial than forecast, on par for cyclones in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Actually storm tracks east and nearly parallel to the coast in the Philippines can result in some industrial grade rainfall due to the intensification of the SW flow feeding into the storm across the islands Steve Yeah, that's a good point, Steve. I'd imagine the topography of Luzon enhances that effect. Models trended left and weaker overnight with 93W. Won't be much more than a rain event for the Philippines. The GFS is putting down 8"+ across the central islands, with 2-4" expected across the mountains of Luzon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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