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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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I only see one storm for the first 78 hrs.......so i thought that was the first....there is alot of spacing between shortwaves.....so the nam might have some thing for us post 84 hrs with that energy coming down....

The high pressure to the north is now weak, but temperatures at all levels on the 00Z NAM are ridiculously cold. If it is correct, this could get incredibly interesting. I would half expect there to be more of a HP building to our n and w and future runs. If correct, the 500mb map at 84 hours is getting to look almost perfect for us to end up getting nailed.

WX/PT

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Not offering up an 18z NAM/DGEX type solution, that's for sure. It's way less amplified thanks both to the first shortwave de-amplifying the height field over the east coast, and the shortwave coming into the Plains doing so much weaker. This run would likely, extrapolated, be a good bit east of 18z DGEX and probably would be a miss. Just my analysis, though. The baroclinic zone is also being pulled offshore between 72 and 84 hrs.

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The high pressure to the north is now weak, but temperatures at all levels on the 00Z NAM are ridiculously cold. If it is correct, this could get incredibly interesting. I would half expect there to be more of a HP building to our n and w and future runs. If correct, the 500mb map at 84 hours is getting to look almost perfect for us to end up getting nailed.

WX/PT

Thanks for the input......its has been pretty fustrating following these models and getting diff types of solutions. I would hope we find some type consensus in the next 24-48 hrs.....rain or snow, i would like to see a real powerhouse of a storm........

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i guess it works to compare it to the last run.. it has that euro look to it..Broader trough and lower heights out ahead of it by a lot, nothing will really get going.

Well it's never really good to get ideas solely based on the last run comparison, but it can give you a look into what the model may be saying. You can put the pieces together--and here it's saying that it won't be nearly as amplified as the earlier 18z run.

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Way more progressive. The height field has adjusted southeast by hundreds of miles. Not worth much at this range, but this run isn't really getting me excited at all.

Have to agree with this statement. Trends are a bit discouraging. We'll have to see how things play out. 2 part systems with a pattern change play havoc with he models. Some of the ops and ensembles disagree with each other. With some of the ensembles being more wrapped up. Not sure if it's the product of a few members skewing the mean, but interesting nonetheless.

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i guess it works to compare it to the last run.. it has that euro look to it..Broader trough and lower heights out ahead of it by a lot, nothing will really get going.

I imagine that because of time of year, the wave lengths becoming longer can be suspected here?

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