Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I only see one storm for the first 78 hrs.......so i thought that was the first....there is alot of spacing between shortwaves.....so the nam might have some thing for us post 84 hrs with that energy coming down.... The high pressure to the north is now weak, but temperatures at all levels on the 00Z NAM are ridiculously cold. If it is correct, this could get incredibly interesting. I would half expect there to be more of a HP building to our n and w and future runs. If correct, the 500mb map at 84 hours is getting to look almost perfect for us to end up getting nailed. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 84 hr nam has a boat load of energy dropping down - about to round the base, slower evolution and i would bet this run is a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Not offering up an 18z NAM/DGEX type solution, that's for sure. It's way less amplified thanks both to the first shortwave de-amplifying the height field over the east coast, and the shortwave coming into the Plains doing so much weaker. This run would likely, extrapolated, be a good bit east of 18z DGEX and probably would be a miss. Just my analysis, though. The baroclinic zone is also being pulled offshore between 72 and 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You can compare the two maps for yourself, if you'd like. 00z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_0z/f78.gif 18z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_18z/f84.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The high pressure to the north is now weak, but temperatures at all levels on the 00Z NAM are ridiculously cold. If it is correct, this could get incredibly interesting. I would half expect there to be more of a HP building to our n and w and future runs. If correct, the 500mb map at 84 hours is getting to look almost perfect for us to end up getting nailed. WX/PT Thanks for the input......its has been pretty fustrating following these models and getting diff types of solutions. I would hope we find some type consensus in the next 24-48 hrs.....rain or snow, i would like to see a real powerhouse of a storm........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You can compare the two maps for yourself, if you'd like. 00z http://www.meteo.psu.../WRF_0z/f78.gif 18z http://www.meteo.psu...WRF_18z/f84.gif seems like hgts are also lower along the east coast....a bit more progressive flow out in front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 seems like hgts are also lower along the east coast....a bit more progressive flow out in front... Way more progressive. The height field has adjusted southeast by hundreds of miles. Not worth much at this range, but this run isn't really getting me excited at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You can compare the two maps for yourself, if you'd like. 00z http://www.meteo.psu.../WRF_0z/f78.gif 18z http://www.meteo.psu...WRF_18z/f84.gif i guess it works to compare it to the last run.. it has that euro look to it..Broader trough and lower heights out ahead of it by a lot, nothing will really get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 i guess it works to compare it to the last run.. it has that euro look to it..Broader trough and lower heights out ahead of it by a lot, nothing will really get going. Well it's never really good to get ideas solely based on the last run comparison, but it can give you a look into what the model may be saying. You can put the pieces together--and here it's saying that it won't be nearly as amplified as the earlier 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Way more progressive. The height field has adjusted southeast by hundreds of miles. Not worth much at this range, but this run isn't really getting me excited at all. Have to agree with this statement. Trends are a bit discouraging. We'll have to see how things play out. 2 part systems with a pattern change play havoc with he models. Some of the ops and ensembles disagree with each other. With some of the ensembles being more wrapped up. Not sure if it's the product of a few members skewing the mean, but interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 i guess it works to compare it to the last run.. it has that euro look to it..Broader trough and lower heights out ahead of it by a lot, nothing will really get going. I imagine that because of time of year, the wave lengths becoming longer can be suspected here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I imagine that because of time of year, the wave lengths becoming longer can be suspected here? The wavelengths actually get shorter this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Liking the looks of the gfs, shortwave is digging more thru hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Liking the looks of the gfs, shortwave is digging more thru hr 60 This early? That will bring the first storm even further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This early? That will bring the first storm even further west im dazed and confused is that a 985mb over DC, where is this coming from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Lol, State College PA buried for weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Lol, State College PA buried for weeks Yeah, really. I guess that is what I get for choosing to study meteo at PSU. over a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yeah, really. I guess that is what I get for choosing to study meteo at PSU. over a foot of snow Northern NJ higher elevations are also slammed this run...the cold air wedging is impressive..the WAA just stops as the surface low goes nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 NZucker may be passed out on his 952 acres of property Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 850 and 700 lows literally rot over Eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS has a 980mb low over us, NAM at the same time has nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Not too sure I buy the sfc low cutting so far west, since the H500 trough goes insanely negative, but again, it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUmetstudent Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yeah, really. I guess that is what I get for choosing to study meteo at PSU. over a foot of snow more like a foot and a half or more, i wouldn't count on that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS going all in on that first wave, with no second wave. This would be sweet if this happens off the coast and not up the I-95 corridor. 980mb with that H5 setup will be a snowstorm for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS going all in on that first wave, with no second wave. This would be sweet if this happens off the coast and not up the I-95 corridor. 980mb with that H5 setup will be a snowstorm for most I dont see a reason for the stall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I dont see a reason for the stall if this run is true there will be a major slow down if not a stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Man, the 84 hr GFS ensembles are beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 1.62" all snow for MGJ.. lol Yeah keep dreamin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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