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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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LOL. DGEX is like April 1997, just 100 miles south. Not much support in ensembles for the upper low closing off that early and slowing down so much.

Yeah the GFS doesn't close off the H5 low until 102 hours, and by that point it's late for NYC with the upper levels around the Adirondacks. Also, the 18z GFS tracks the 850 low over Tom's River and Central LI, which would probably cause NYC to change to rain.

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We don't really have a chance to get snow in the 84-96 hour timeframe. (We meaning coastal areas).

There is simply not enough cold air around. We need that 84-96 hour wave to resupply come cold air, and be weak, so that there is plenty of separation, and emphasis on the energy that is diving down the base of the trough. That energy is what may or may not give us our snow, not the leading wave at 84 hours. The NAM shunts that energy out to sea, and thus you see a beautiful amplifying trough and potent piece of energy rounding the base of the trough.

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We don't really have a chance to get snow in the 84-96 hour timeframe. (We meaning coastal areas).

There is simply not enough cold air around. We need that 84-96 hour wave to resupply come cold air, and be weak, so that there is plenty of separation, and emphasis on the energy that is diving down the base of the trough. That energy is what may or may not give us our snow, not the leading wave at 84 hours. The NAM shunts that energy out to sea, and thus you see a beautiful amplifying trough and potent piece of energy rounding the base of the trough.

Agreed! For the reasons you state, this is why the GFS has an 'earlier' solution and one that is less favorable. We need the gradient to be displaced south and reinforce the cold.

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Gefs mean also focuses on the 2nd wave, the 84-108 storm as well.

It's well SE of the operational and scrapes coastal sections.

There are 3 possible waves. The 1st one, Wednesday night that slides off the coast well south of us.

The 2nd one, which is the one the GFS and now it's ensembles develop

and

The 3rd wave, which Dgex and other models develop.

We won't have any conclusion to this until at least Wednesday 12z , IMO.

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Agreed! For the reasons you state, this is why the GFS has an 'earlier' solution and one that is less favorable. We need the gradient to be displaced south and reinforce the cold.

I disagree....850s are well below freezing so it could snow if the first wave took a decent track.

There's still a timing issue as the GFS has this storm at 96 hours and the DGEX has it at 120 hours; clearly, the GFS is emphasizing the interaction between the decaying original shortwave and the second s/w dropping into the base of the trough, while the DGEX is using the third piece of energy to create the storm.

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You can get soundings for a more exact lat/lon or for an individual station (and can even view a loop of soundings every 3 hours) at this site:

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

(Note: when entering a station on this site, you use a 3 letter code - i.e. EWR, not KEWR.)

Definitely snow at 84 hours even south of NYC where this sounding is pulled from (Somerset NJ). By 87-90 hours it may be sleeting or raining.

GFS_3_2011032818_F84_40.5000N_74.5000W.png

http://www.twisterda...0N_74.5000W.png

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Probably is initially snow on the model thanks to an incorrect solution as a result of the gridscale feedback and QPF bomb..causing strong evaporational cooling and subsidence around it

It would have to be dynamic cooling, based upon the intensity of the precip., because the surface 0 line is running well north and west of us, but does seen to nudge a little closer at 90hrs, and then recedes back north thereafter (until the low pulls out). However, at 84hrs., the 850 line does run from just west of Phil. to right over NYC and LI.

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A consolidated and potent shortwave deepening rapidly seems to be a solution that would produce snow for coastal areas, but models just have to key in on specific shortwaves instead of the very scattered solutions from each model. This is definitely an interesting scenario, and a snow to rain to snow forecast wouldn't be that far-fetched.

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A consolidated and potent shortwave deepening rapidly seems to be a solution that would produce snow for coastal areas, but models just have to key in on specific shortwaves instead of the very scattered solutions from each model. This is definitely an interesting scenario, and a snow to rain to snow forecast wouldn't be that far-fetched.

I can always count on you for the cliff notes Manny,,:weight_lift:
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You just get the feeling that within the next day or so, the rest of the guidance is going to start jumping on board with a snowstorm. Both the NAM and SREF's look good at the end of there runs and the GFS and Euro are works in progress.

Now if you can only convince Upton and Mount Holly........... :rolleyes:

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You just get the feeling that within the next day or so, the rest of the guidance is going to start jumping on board with a snowstorm. Both the NAM and SREF's look good at the end of there runs and the GFS and Euro are works in progress.

the euro is having major complications but remember how bad the models were with the 3 noreasters this year? its gotta be something with the s/w's or the -NAO and hostile setup..Models always **** up these types of east coast storms

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That's actually 2nd system that GFS focuses on.

1st system is Wednesday night.

At 78, energy is rounding base. Looks similar to 18z

I only see one storm for the first 78 hrs.......so i thought that was the first....there is alot of spacing between shortwaves.....so the nam might have some thing for us post 84 hrs with that energy coming down....

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I only see one storm for the first 78 hrs.......so i thought that was the first....there is alot of spacing between shortwaves.....so the nam might have some thing for us post 84 hrs with that energy coming down....

Too many shortwaves lol. Confusion.

Wish models would consolidate already and pick one.

It's a crapshoot to which solution will be correct right now.

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