pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 wrong storm, wrong thread do you ever stop? The NWS bashing here is unwarranted and inappropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 They had a forecast of 1 inch of snow and a high of 51 with rain that day a few days ago. We had 9 inches of snow and a high of 31. The NWS bashing here is unwarranted and inappropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Lets see what the gfs has, hr 60 1008mb over new orleans, with tremendous backside energy..We'll be interesting to see what happens here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Well, at 81 hrs it is clear this will be a massive hit, be it rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Guys, stop arguing, enough is enough. This thread is for the April 1-2 Nor'easter, not the NWS performance on the 3/24 storm. Let's try to keep it on topic. 18z NAM looks very phased at 84 hours, and the DGEX confirms that it wants to bring a storm up the coast. Thicknesses are warm so it may have a hard time accumulating in areas very near the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Guys, stop arguing, enough is enough. This thread is for the April 1-2 Nor'easter, not the NWS performance on the 3/24 storm. Let's try to keep it on topic. 18z NAM looks very phased at 84 hours, and the DGEX confirms that it wants to bring a storm up the coast. Thicknesses are warm so it may have a hard time accumulating in areas very near the ocean. Stop wasting your time. Climo says it's not happening. We should lock the thread and save everyone some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 At 87 hrs NYC and Nothern NJ get killed, should be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 at 90 hrs NYC goes over to rain supposedly. The jackpot would be NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 at 90 hrs NYC goes over to rain supposedly. The jackpot would be NW NJ. NW jersey gets creamed..well timed at night as well..However H5 differences from run to run are pretty large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Guys, stop arguing, enough is enough. This thread is for the April 1-2 Nor'easter, not the NWS performance on the 3/24 storm. Let's try to keep it on topic. 18z NAM looks very phased at 84 hours, and the DGEX confirms that it wants to bring a storm up the coast. Thicknesses are warm so it may have a hard time accumulating in areas very near the ocean. Thicknesses cool down rapidly between hours 114-120. So some of that 1"+ is snow. And then hours 120-126, .50"+ falls as for sure snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Thicknesses cool down rapidly between hours 114-120. So some of that 1"+ is snow. And then hours 120-126, .50"+ falls as for sure snow. So its snow to rain to snow for us? Im guessing the daytime part is rain and the night time part is snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The run focuses on the leadoff wave and no second storm, on 12z, there are 2 waves of low pressure...Models clearly having issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The run focuses on the leadoff wave and no second storm, on 12z, there are 2 waves of low pressure...Models clearly having issues I don't think we will have 2 waves of low pressure. Me thinks it will be one and it will be the earlier timing as well. But, lets see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Luckily enough warm air appears to get in to keep it rain. The good thing is that there would need to be an overwhelming amount of cold air to keep it frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Luckily enough warm air appears to get in to keep it rain. The good thing is that there would need to be an overwhelming amount of cold air to keep it frozen. LOL. I guess you don't remember April 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 So its snow to rain to snow for us? Im guessing the daytime part is rain and the night time part is snow? Dgex yes. GFS appears to be mostly rain for coast. Maybe a little during heavy CCB. Shift it 50-100 miles SE and then we're talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 LOL. I guess you don't remember April 1997. I remember april 2010 which was beatiful, warm, and delightful. Maybe we will catch a break again this year especially with the nao going positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I remember april 2010 which was beatiful, warm, and delightful. Maybe we will catch a break again this year especially with the nao going positive. What does this have to do with the April 1-2nd storm system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I remember april 2010 which was beatiful, warm, and delightful. Maybe we will catch a break again this year especially with the nao going positive. +NAO isn't going to help, we need the PNA and EPO block to breakdown. anyway, off topic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 What does this have to do with the April 1-2nd storm system? That's his MO. Every damned post is exactly the same no matter where it's posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 +NAO isn't going to help, we need the PNA and EPO block to breakdown. anyway, off topic... LOL this whole "argument" is getting ridiculous. "Hoping" doesn't make the weather what it is anyway haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The GFS doesn't close the 500 low off in a favorable spot, and it also happens a bit late on the 18z GFS: All of the features, surface and upper levels, are a bit too far west for NYC. Looks to be mostly a Putnam/Orange County and NNJ/Poconos storm. 50 miles and the City would be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Stop wasting your time. Climo says it's not happening. We should lock the thread and save everyone some time. Climo also said that I wasn't supposed to get 2.5" of snow last Wednesday. Good thing I listened to climo and didn't waste my time tracking the event. Oh, wait... (Not to Sundog, but to the people that many posters are having issues with): It's not just the opinion that you think it's going to rain--it's the tone that you come across with that makes it appear that that's the only possible scenario because of climo, and that we are all idiots wasting our time tracking the storm and wanting snow. Clearly, we are inferior and need to bow down to the climo robots. And for the record, I think it's going to rain, too! And most likely, I'll be correct. However, there is certainly the outside shot of snow, and I'm tracking the potential because weather is my passion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 GFS is vastly different from the other models with its handling of the shortwaves which results in its much earlier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 18Z GFS says snowstorm NYC metro http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnow096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Climo also said that I wasn't supposed to get 2.5" of snow last Wednesday. Good thing I listened to climo and didn't waste my time tracking the event. Oh, wait... It's not just the opinion that you think it's going to rain--it's the tone that you come across with that makes it appear that that's the only possible scenario because of climo, and that we are all idiots wasting our time tracking the storm and wanting snow. Clearly, we are inferior and need to bow down to the climo robots. And for the record, I think it's going to rain, too! And most likely, I'll be correct. However, there is certainly the outside shot of snow, and I'm tracking the potential because weather is my passion. You should mention what your professor thinks of "climo." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 What hurts NYC via this run is mainly the 850s at 12 Z Friday FRI 06Z 01-APR 2.3 -2.5 1002 97 98 0.32 545 544 FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.4 1.3 995 99 78 0.97 539 544 FRI 18Z 01-APR 1.0 -0.8 993 99 83 0.08 534 539 SAT 00Z 02-APR 0.8 -4.6 996 97 100 0.04 530 533 Thats when the bulk of your QPF falls... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 What hurts NYC via this run is mainly the 850s at 12 Z Friday FRI 06Z 01-APR 2.3 -2.5 1002 97 98 0.32 545 544 FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.4 1.3 995 99 78 0.97 539 544 FRI 18Z 01-APR 1.0 -0.8 993 99 83 0.08 534 539 SAT 00Z 02-APR 0.8 -4.6 996 97 100 0.04 530 533 Thats when the bulk of your QPF falls... That's the prior 6 hours of Precip though. So at that time, 1.25"+ has already fallen. I'm surprised soundings have surface only 34 degrees though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 For the record, I was being sarcastic about the climo stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 LOL. DGEX is like April 1997, just 100 miles south. Not much support in ensembles for the upper low closing off that early and slowing down so much. Guys, stop arguing, enough is enough. This thread is for the April 1-2 Nor'easter, not the NWS performance on the 3/24 storm. Let's try to keep it on topic. 18z NAM looks very phased at 84 hours, and the DGEX confirms that it wants to bring a storm up the coast. Thicknesses are warm so it may have a hard time accumulating in areas very near the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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