RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 LOL at Francesa trying to forecast the weather on WFAN. He interviewed Jeter and asked him if he would like it to snow on Opening Day and Jeter described 1996. And then Francesa was trying to read the forecast and it went something like this-- It looks like the high temp is going to be in the upper 20s to around 50 and where it's in the upper 20s it will snow and where it's around 50 it will rain. It looks like the snow will happen to the south of the area (?) so there will be a weird rain/snow line where it's snowing to the south and raining to the north. I LOL'ed through that entire forecast. i cant take a guy seriously who cant pronounce his own name correctly. ok ok Long Island guys.....low blow i know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 New srerfs show a pretty potent piece of energy diving and rounding trough at hour 87: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Here is the 12z FIM. It has a coastal with temps in the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 wow at some of these, the interior gets absolutly burried. Some have borderline MECS for NJ. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf144.html http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf150.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Analogs still honking at hr 72. Most of them showing that the current setup is much more late Feb early March esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 So just to be clear, I have to think it will snow to post in this thread? We're discussing this "potential." I don't think it will snow in NYC. Where is the controversy? no its true, you have to want it to snow with the next system to post in this thread, otherwise they will tell you banter or call you a troll. Its a double standard for sure. Models may honk snow but climatology says no but shh climatology is not supposed to be given much consideration for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 no its true, you have to want it to snow with the next system to post in this thread, otherwise they will tell you banter or call you a troll. Its a double standard for sure. Models may honk snow but climatology says no but shh climatology is not supposed to be given much consideration for snow lovers. When your entire argument is based on climo alone your going to get criticized. If he had given scientific reasoning to support his thoughts nobody would have said anything. It's just like saying it's going to snow in January because in January climo supports snow instead of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 climo says be very hesitant with these types of systems, of course no one bases forecasts just on climo but it makes forecasters take pause. The same model outputs for a storm in January and April are not the same because of this. We all know it can snow in April but these have to be perfect events to widespread hit the area not to mention the city. sometimes this board becomes all about snow, heat lovers are abused on the board, its a weather board, but everyone is not treated the same, thats the problem and thus fighting goes on and a gang mentality. Its sort of hypocritical that Pazzo gets attacked for posting his stuff when the pro snow guys can do whatever they want. People should be objective at times and respect peoples thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 no its true, you have to want it to snow with the next system to post in this thread, otherwise they will tell you banter or call you a troll. Its a double standard for sure. Models may honk snow but climatology says no but shh climatology is not supposed to be given much consideration for snow lovers. if it happened before it can happen again...A large wet snowstorm is possible well into April climo wise...But the number of times that happened is very small....We are in a pattern that might produce at least some snow flakes in the area...So the chances are higher...I think there is a chance but I'm not holding my breath... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It looks like the 12z GGEM ensembles are mostly clustered near the BM. http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm hmmm, the bm is 40/70, most of those are pretty much just off the coast of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Once again, nobody is saying that the chances of getting a MECS out of this are high, in fact the exact opposite....but Pazzo is indeed dismissing this entirely based off of climo. Please stop with the posts regarding how unlikely this is to occur, most of us realize this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 no its true, you have to want it to snow with the next system to post in this thread, otherwise they will tell you banter or call you a troll. Its a double standard for sure. Models may honk snow but climatology says no but shh climatology is not supposed to be given much consideration for snow lovers. We are talking roughly 10 days past winter. It's not like we are in the middle or late April. The past two years we have had records in a lot of places. Have these last two years lived up to most of the previous years as far as performance? Climo is based on many years and because snow doesn't happen every year doesn't mean it can't happened. While the chances may be smaller, ignoring a strong, closed off low at or near BM with cold air in place just because it's a week after winter ended is just silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 hmmm, the bm is 40/70, most of those are pretty much just off the coast of NJ yeah, alot of the ensemble members track so close to the coast that the CCB sets up too far west. We need a track just inside the BM here to have a legit shot. A track like Boxing Day is probably too close if we want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The map doesn't support that. Even if it did, it would be wrong. The area of 6"+ snow in NNJ was geographically and elevationally limited. I'm not saying it was confined to a single hilltop, but the use of the word "widespread" is inappropriate. If you're talking Pa, then sure, the coverage was more extensive across the northern tier and in the Poconos. But even there the lower and mid elevations were mostly 3"-6" Sorry, i will respectfully disagree because he said there was no widespread 6 inch totals "ANYWHERE" and that map proved him wrong. He did not say NYC or NYC metro but "anywhere".... As far as this system ..I am not on the snow boat as of yet..too much needs to be resolved hopefully the answer clears up within the next 24 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Man people really need to lighten up, it is evident some posters (I won't mention names) need to get laid. Relax, I promise life isn't all that bad. You don't need to argue that it is going to snow in this thread in order to be accepted, you just need to offer some credible evidence to support your case, whatever that may be. The reality is that yes it is hard to get snow in April, but not unheard of. Clearly the majority of posters here are attempting to show that this might be one of those rare patterns that could produce an April snowfall. I don't think there is anything wrong with that, considering we are here to discuss the weather and upcoming pattern. To simply dismiss the possibility of snow, based only on the fact that it will be April, is not a reasonable approach. No one can discount the fact that snow in April is rare and getting it to happen requires the perfect setup. But I also cannot ignore that most of the models are showing a relatively supportive pattern and to be honest some models have a beautiful setup at H5. I agree with the general consensus that there is at least an outside chance for snow. I think if the mid-week low remains flat, progressive and south it can help displace the gradient further south and prevent the hgts from rising on the EC. The large ridge out west will really force the trough to dig, and all the energy in the base of that trough results in a very volatile situation. If we can get a shortwave to dig, phase, and amplify this just might be one of those rare instances when some areas in the northeast see snow. I think heavier precipitation rates and a stronger low pressure will be pivotal if we are to see snow. As others have mentioned these transition NAO phases are usually indicative of storm potential. Will have to monitor future models runs to see how this all will play out. We are currently in the time frame when models seem to struggle the most and often lose the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 This is going to be a 100 % rain event for NYC Metro - winter is over ....... http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 This is going to be a 100 % rain event for NYC Metro - winter is over ....... http://kamala.cod.ed...pus51.KOKX.html Oh no... not this again. This is the same exact link that you used to claim it wouldn't snow in NYC during the last storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Oh no... not this again. This is the same exact link that you used to claim it wouldn't snow in NYC during the last storm.... and your point ? Its my opinion they are correct - ok ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 and your point ? Its my opinion they are correct - ok ? they only have degrees in this stuff, what do they know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 and your point ? Its my opinion they are correct - ok ? Climo is a great way to forecast storms- just as we observed last time, when they said rain, and 1-2" of snow fell in NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeInNJ Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 yeah, alot of the ensemble members track so close to the coast that the CCB sets up too far west. We need a track just inside the BM here to have a legit shot. A track like Boxing Day is probably too close if we want snow. Can someone tell me what "BM" stands for? Edit: Does this board not have moderators? There is so much off-topic crap in this thread its ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Can someone tell me what "BM" stands for? Benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 why is this turning into a forecast thread? nobody is talking about the storm which is still not even close to a final solution. Rain/snow whatever, i like big noreasters and this 84 hr nam map shows some love 84 nam 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Climo is a great way to forecast storms- just as we observed last time, when they said rain, and 1-2" of snow fell in NYC... They called for an inch, and, uh, it snowed an inch. Pretty good forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 They called for an inch, and, uh, it snowed an inch. Pretty good forecast. They called it as the inch was already falling. Not a "pretty good forecast," IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Dgex has another snow weenies fantasy. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Can someone tell me what "BM" stands for? Edit: Does this board not have moderators? There is so much off-topic crap in this thread its ridiculous. BM benchmark 40 degrees north, 70 degrees west. Ideal track for a NY Metro snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I`m hoping for at least 1 more snowstorm before the warmth begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 They called it as the inch was already falling. Not a "pretty good forecast," IMO. Wrong. By the wee hours of Tuesday morning (330am) they started to call for a light accumulation around an inch. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=ZFPOKX&e=201103220758 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Wrong. By the wee hours of Tuesday morning (330am) they started to call for a light accumulation around an inch. http://mesonet.agron...&e=201103220758 wrong storm, wrong thread do you ever stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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