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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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He said it in preparation of the Mets winning on opening day (like they ALWAYS do) and then realize that the team is still terrible.

heh.... just like the Yanks used to do in the late 80s and early 90s-- win on opening day and then lose like 5 in a row.

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well, if we are talking about the mets, they are about 800 milllion ++ off according to the madoff trustee, lol

lol great point-- hmmmm, so if my calculations are correct, they should be fine if they collect $16000 from each fan on opening day (800 M / 50 K)

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They will be lucky if 16,000 people show up on opening day, HAHAHAH

Haha, they'll probably be trying to give tickets away for free this season. Their little promo didn't even work (they were trying to promote meeting the players to sell tickets.)

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AT 19Z A 1002 HPA LOW WAS CENTERED EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES...AND

A 1003 HPA LOW WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. ALOFT A 500 HPA

TROUGH WAS CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

VALLEY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO SHARPEN...AND EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE 500

MB TROUGH AHEAD OF IT TO DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS

NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE

RESULT OF THIS WILL BE THE MERGING OF THE TWO LOWS INTO A LOW

AROUND 990 HPA NEAR THE 70/40 BENCH MARK BY FRIDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SE CANADA

PROVIDING A SOURCE FOR LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ON NE-N LOW LEVEL FLOW.

THIS SOLUTION IS A WEAKER/FURTHER EAST SOLUTION THAN PREVIOUS

FORECASTS...AND AS A RESULT LESS QPF AND WIND IS EXPECTED. WITH

THE WEAKER WIND AND LESS QPF...THE COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS

WILL NOT PENETRATE AS FAR TO THE S AND W AS PREVIOUSLY

EXPECTED...AND AS A RESULT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN

REDUCED...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1000 FT.

ACCORDINGLY HAVE DOWNGRADED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY...AND CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR

EASTERN PASSAIC...AND WESTERN UNION AND ESSEX COUNTIES.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS

NW ZONES...WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE HEAVIEST

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...CORRESPONDING TO THE STRONGEST

LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND ISENTROPIC FORCING.

SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SW OF ORANGE/PUTNAM/WESTERN

PASSAIC...EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CHANGING TO MAINLY SNOW ACROSS

NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...FAIRFIELD AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...AS WELL

AS MOST OF ROCKLAND AND WESTERN BERGEN COUNTY...HAVE THUS

CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE COULD

BE SOME SLEET MIXED IN AT THE START...BEFORE LOWER LEVELS WARM UP

THIS EVENING.

FURTHER EAST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH ELEVATED (SHOWALTER

TO AROUND 0) AND SLANTWISE CONVECTION OVER THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG

ISLAND OVERNIGHT...AND INTO FAR SE CT LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE PUT

IN ISOLATED THUNDER THERE.

WITH THE WEAKER LOW...WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY

LEVELS...WITH GUSTS UP TO AT MOST 25 TO 30 MPH.

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Hmm.. 3-5 inches in Rockland??..... Maybe extreme northern rockland from bear mountain through Harriman state park.. Down by me.. No way it's gonna happen... I think rockland needs to be split into 2 zones.... Seriously... I know it's the smallest county in new York state.. But still.... Good time to apply the "southern rockland snow hole formula" (SRSHF)... 4 inches X .25 = 1 inch... I guarantee that's all I will be getting by me.

Based on my snow hole formula.. I'm downgrading my 1 inch total to 1/4 inch

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Upton still expecting enough QPF for NW areas to get near 8", interesting. They don't seem to be believing that the track will be too far east.

with ratios pretty low, there better be a hell of a lot of QPF to reach those totals.. I'd be shocked if they got that much, but hey, nothing would suprise me at this point. It's just been that kind of winter... but no matter what the winter brings, I know that I wil guaranteed always be in a snow hole. :whistle:

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Not saying this will happen, but models have slashed precip many times before an event.

Classic one was Jan.26-27.

Models had over 1" of qpf for days. Right before the event, the euro and every other model cut NYC to only .50"-.75" QPF.

And we all know how that ended. 18" of snow.

This is pretty similar with qpf outputs from model to model.

Of course synoptics are different.

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Upton still expecting enough QPF for NW areas to get near 8", interesting. They don't seem to be believing that the track will be too far east.

Yeah that 7.8" they have there is just to my west but that area also has elevations of 1300'+. Looks like 5-7" for MBY as per Upton ( Highly doubt it).. Ill take it though ;)

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The gfs and euro have been awfull for this event. The king has took alot of lumps this season.

They must have done something with it when they upgraded it.

The NAM destroyed models for this event. Except for 2 runs yesterday, it always had this weak and east for our area.

The funny thing is that a lot of people doubted the Nam.,

60 degrees on Tuesday per the Euro

It's baseball time.:thumbsup:

R.I.P Winter

There were model runs that had this storm sub 985 at New Jersey's latitude. Crazy how long ago that now seems.

Most of the models had this storm bombing out on the benchmark. A lot of people thought this was going to be a big storm for our area with rain changing to heavy snow.

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