CooL Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 That third piece of energy dropping in is really screwing us..........something in which I don't understand is why its not completely phasing in. It looks like it wants too but it just never does. Edit: It does, just way way too late which causes the low to bomb over northern New England the chances for snow have been at about 3% for nearly 48 hrs now, its over, and so is winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 We went from 2"+ qpf to less than a .25" in 36hrs on the GFS! lol.. Its actually pretty sad that this is being used to "assist" in forecasting weather in 2011.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I wouldn't turn my back on the storm next week, but this one is on life support and fading quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 We went from 2"+ qpf to less than a .25" in 36hrs on the GFS! lol.. Its actually pretty sad that this is being used to "assist" in forecasting weather in 2011.. Emergency Management folks love it........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 So we get .25 instead of 1 inch..It's rain..tomorrow will be a gloomy damp April day, no surprise.ummm lets move on to spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS says my 3-6 forecast for northern Passaic may go up in smoke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Here's a loop of the past several days showing the trough amplification currently occurring..worth noting the 160+kt 250mb jet streak diving into the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 So we get .25 instead of 1 inch..It's rain..tomorrow will be a gloomy damp April day, no surprise.ummm lets move on to spring! at this point im rooting for no precip at all...Luckily we have the RUC http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=ruc7t:&runTime=2011033114&plotName=3hap_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUCModelFields&maxFcstLen=24&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1 however i doubt it goes that far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Either the models are very wrong, or there are going to be some major busts....At least it hurts less in April than it would in January or February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The 12z GFS really weakens the leading vort and splits it into two...before it was the amplification and closing off of that vort over land that was bringing the rainy solution. Now the GFS is opting for more a NAM like solution, with a weaker, more divergent vort that does not close off till NNE. Precip is obviously reduced, but thats what we want in this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I wouldn't turn my back on the storm next week, but this one is on life support and fading quickly Today was our last shot of wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I wonder if the models are suffering from convective feedback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think so, but I'm not sure how much of an effect its having Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Either the models are very wrong, or there are going to be some major busts....At least it hurts less in April than it would in January or February I would have cried if this happened in December or January. Lets see what happens with this storm. I remember the models cut back the precip for the Jan event. The area ended up with close to 20 inches. Who knows, maybe the models will be wrong this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I wonder if the models are suffering from convective feedback? I wonder if the models are suffering from "they suck." Sorry, just had to write that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 This winter the models have been Putrid. There is something with the 12Z models and 72 -78 hrs out where it seemed like whatever they show was completely opposite of what happened. They also held onto a similar solution for several days only to completely go in a different direction within 66 hrs or so. Luckily we had it go in our favor mostly this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well its stupid to completely write off an event before it happens but if I worked for the NWS, I would be very worried about my chances of seeing warning criteria snows anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 HPC thinks the new guidance with the weaker and easterly solution is correct: ...CYCLONE LIFTING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 1... PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF NAM AND GFS THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM REGIONAL HAVE ALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE...AND LESS INTENSE WITH THE ULTIMATE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE NAM...GFS...GEM REGIONAL...AND UKMET ARE SLOWER THAN THE 00Z/31 ECMWF TO PHASE THE ENERGY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE INITIAL WAVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH DELAYS THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE AND THE CHANCE FOR A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TO CLOSE OFF AND HOVER NEAR LONG ISLAND. THE 00Z/31 ECENS MEAN WAS ALSO SKEWED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE SHEARED SOLUTIONS...AND PERHAPS MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE 00Z/31 UKMET BROKE DRAMATICALLY WITH THE SLOWER...INTENSE SOLUTION IT HAD LOCKED ONTO FOR MANY DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL RECOMMEND A SOLUTION ALONG THE LINES OF NEW NAM AND GFS. THE DETAILS OF THOSE MODELS ARE DIFFERENT...SO HOPEFULLY ONE OF THE OTHER NEW RUNS WILL OFFER A MORE SOLID FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 This winter the models have been Putrid. There is something with the 12Z models and 72 -78 hrs out where it seemed like whatever they show was completely opposite of what happened. They also held onto a similar solution for several days only to completely go in a different direction within 66 hrs or so. Luckily we had it go in our favor mostly this year. Most of the storms this past winter busted in our favor( boxing day storm , end of January storm . I don't know what the hell is up with the models. All of them have sucked. I think they need to upgrade all of them lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The models have been having problems with all the pieces of energy in this trough from the beginning with the broad nature of this trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What is funny is that we were all making fun of the NAM all along and now it turns out it may have been correct all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What is funny is that we were all making fun of the NAM all along and now it turns out it may have been correct all along. The trick is figuring out when the NAM will end up being wrong or right ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 oh come on,was hoping for a decent rain storm at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 12 Z GFS means 12 Z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The NWS has the LV under 5-10, just like they did for the storm last week that netted about an inch. I don't undertstand their call last time, and don't understand this one either. 5-10 was a long shot from the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The NWS has the LV under 5-10, just like they did for the storm last week that netted about an inch. I don't undertstand their call last time, and don't understand this one either. 5-10 was a long shot from the beginning. Last time (the 23rd) ABE had 2.6 inches ..3 inches here in center city and then Northampton area (granted thats not lehigh county) had 5.5 inches so it was very well warranted.. Guidance was suggesting that everything was coming together good for a late season spring snow nor easter ..but now guidance is falling apart instead of keeping with what they were suggesting. Its weather & its always changing and evolving so it does indeed happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I am completely content with the idea of not seeing any snow as long as Boston doesn't see any either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I am completely content with the idea of not seeing any snow as long as Boston doesn't see any either. times 1 million, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I am completely content with the idea of not seeing any snow as long as Boston doesn't see any either. Especially due to the fact I'm tuned in on YES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 12 Z GFS means It's much stronger than the op run. The ensembles have been really good of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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