IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 looks like our trough has already gone negative http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Stuff is starting to fire up in north-central NJ already. Would love to know if some of that is snow around Randolph, NJ lab94 is reporting lgt snow in the obs thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What dont you agree with? It's too high in some places and too low in others, I'll just leave it at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What dont you agree with? He isn't from Orange County and doesn't realize how quickly things go wet to white up there. I could see Orange County cleaning up nice overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeInNJ Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's too high in some places and too low in others, I'll just leave it at that What do you think of Mt. Holly's map for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 If there is some good news to be found, this looks encouraging. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=thck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lab94 is reporting lgt snow in the obs thread.. snow rain mix here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 12z RGEM hour 24: Well east and still very warm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What do you think of Mt. Holly's map for our area? If it verifies, I will be pleasantly suprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 He isn't from Orange County and doesn't realize how quickly things go wet to white up there. I could see Orange County cleaning up nice overnight. lol... I know but its ok. I can see a general 6-8 up here with the highest amounts being above 700' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 12z RGEM hour 24: Well east and still very warm: Seems to be the trend this morning.. This time of yr an eastern track isnt gonna guarantee a colder outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lol... I know but its ok. I can see a general 6-8 up here with the highest amounts being above 700' Yeah, in your yard You have me by about 5.5" on the season and you'll extend that lead later tonight as my 385' is going to produce like your 850' will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Seems to be the trend this morning.. This time of yr an eastern track isnt gonna guarantee a colder outcome. NWNJ and points north and west of there fo pretty well on RGEM. Coast appears all rain until the very end, when its too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's quite simple....you either need an artic air mass locked in to the north with good blocking, or you need an intense system which for a lack of a better phrase "produces its own cold air" through dynamics. It looked for a few runs like we would get the ladder of the two but that time has since gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 We shall see, the final book on this one has yet to be written. We still have two big runs coming in the GFS and the EC. The EC means has done quite well this year and would make alot of us very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah, in your yard You have me by about 5.5" on the season and you'll extend that lead later tonight as my 385' is going to produce like your 850' will. lol.. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 NWNJ and points north and west of there fo pretty well on RGEM. Coast appears all rain until the very end, when its too late. What are qpf amounts for up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Very intense convection right now along Rt 4 in Florida with multiple tornado warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What are qpf amounts for up here? Tough to tell on those maps but it appears about 22mm or .85" of total qpf. NYC is also about 18mm ot .70". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The GFS is looking very interesting....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The GFS is looking very interesting....... Why? Its warmer then NAM thru 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Why? Its warmer then NAM thru 15. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS is even drier then NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS is even drier then NAM. lol.. wow what a yr it has been for these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 not because of the temps, because it popped another coastal off the GA coast. It actually has multiple lows popping near that convection once it clears FL, I wonder if its having feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 gfs is east weaker drier but colder here and does give western ct some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Total precip, not including this morning's stuff: Barely .25" into NYC. NJ is .10"-.25" PA gets almost zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 not because of the temps, because it popped another coastal off the GA coast. It actually has multiple lows popping near that convection once it clears FL, I wonder if its having feedback issues. Its either that or that convection is gonna rob us of moisture.. Im sure most remember last week right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 That third piece of energy dropping in is really screwing us..........something in which I don't understand is why its not completely phasing in. It looks like it wants too but it just never does. Edit: It does, just way way too late which causes the low to bomb over northern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 props to the NAM, storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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