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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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I wouldn't say there is no precip, especially west of the city. Usually wrap around moisture is overdone by the models so I wouldn't count on much.

Everything thru hour 12, is from today's 1st storm, which is not going to be accumulating snow.

After hour 12, is from the coastal "storm",

This is all that falls for the coastal. Look at PA. Barely .25" of qpf in eastern PA and almost nothing west. Very dry for our area as well.

12znamp24_NE036.gif

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If this was January, you would have been salvating at 0.75" QPF....that's not really dry. All of the models have cut back since Monday.

Its not .75" of precip. .25" of it is from todays system. You need to look at precip AFTER hour 12. Look at map I posted above.

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Storvista snowfall map has from, Trenton to Sandy Hook north as 4-8 inches including NYC

Those maps are awful with borderline boundary layer conditions..even the 06z run was apparently giving 4-8 further south than Philly. The bufkit and even the clown maps show nothing like that.

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850 line never gets west of NYC on the NAM. So any precip that does fall, could be snow. We need it to be much heavier though to have any chance, this time of year.

8pm tonight - 11pm tonight. Pretty good precip with 850's and 540 line fine:

f15.gif

f18.gif

f21.gif

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It's less about east versus west and more about north versus south. and by north versus south, I mean the latitude at where the cyclogenesis occurs and the cold conveyor belt precipitation can rapidly develop. that's going to start the dynamic cooling process and would give us our snow. but it's happening too late. this storm could track further east but it wouldn't give the city snow with this type of thermal profile.

But to be fair under the current nam/gfs forecasts, even if the ccb develops in time, it' would be over nw NJ and the Poconos and then swings north through albany. So it is a matter of east vs. west too as that ccb wouldnt swing east in time according to the nam/gfs to clip NYC because of the low's northward track.

the new nam develops things wayyyyy too late...messes up Albany for christ sake

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At one point, the models were bombing this low near the bechmark. Now they are bombing it in NE. What changed on the models? Is it because of the limited blocking up north?

That and the next set of runs that came in warmer were within the 60 hr window for the models.

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That and the next set of runs that came in warmer were within the 60 hr window for the models.

lmao, they didn't come in warmer for any reason other than that they stopped showing the low closing off south of LI. The only reason we were cold enough for snow was through dynamic cooling caused by an intense CCB. Take that away, and you have surface temps in the mid 30's at best outside of the higher eleveations. Even with 850 temps below zero, mid 30's is not going to cut it. It snowed moderatly here in Ramsey last week for about 6 hrs and it added up to about an inch of slush with nothing on the pavement. This is about as close to a non-event noreaster as you can get for anyone close to the city or east of it. This is close to a lost cause..

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lmao, they didn't come in warmer for any reason other than that they stopped showing the low closing off south of LI. The only reason we were cold enough for snow was through dynamic colling caused by an intense CCB. Take that away, and you hve surface temps in the mid 30's at best outside of the higher eleveations. Even with 850 temps below zero, mid 30's is not going to cut it. It snowed moderatly here in Ramsey last week for about 6 hrs and it added up to about an inch of slush with nothing on the pavement. This is about as close to a non-event noreaster as you can get for anyone close to the city or east of it.

That's because once inside 60 hrs the models could see that happening.

Even in the earlier runs ,the closing off always looked too late for the

colder solutions being shown.Without a good high to the north, I always

want to see a nice bowling ball roll through.The change to heavy wet

snow back on 4/5/06 had a really strong closed low come through

the area.

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if we had a strong cold high locked in over Canada, we wouldn't have to worry about when the low closed off. This was a marginal setup from the very beginning and needed a perfect scenario to bring heavy snow to NY metro. The 3/29 12z runs were about as close as we were going to get for that to happen. But as it goes alot of times in sports, we peaked too soon.

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