IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The NAM still wants to bring everything together a tad too late.....nothing to get excited about for the NYC metro. The areas currently under the warnings would do well with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The posts about east and colder really mean nothing if there is absolutely no precip when its cold enough to snow. Area supposed to get snow still get it on the nam and it lines up well with uptons map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The NAM still wants to bring everything together a tad too late.....nothing to get excited about for the NYC metro. The areas currently under the warnings would do well with this run. Not really. Its very dry for 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Not really. Its very dry for 2nd storm. classic NAM cutting back before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The posts about east and colder really mean nothing if there is absolutely no precip when its cold enough to snow. I wouldn't say there is no precip, especially west of the city. Usually wrap around moisture is overdone by the models so I wouldn't count on much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The SREF came in drier than its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Not really. Its very dry for 2nd storm. If this was January, you would have been salvating at 0.75" QPF....that's not really dry. All of the models have cut back since Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I wouldn't say there is no precip, especially west of the city. Usually wrap around moisture is overdone by the models so I wouldn't count on much. Everything thru hour 12, is from today's 1st storm, which is not going to be accumulating snow. After hour 12, is from the coastal "storm", This is all that falls for the coastal. Look at PA. Barely .25" of qpf in eastern PA and almost nothing west. Very dry for our area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's very difficult to trust the NAM when its the last one to the party. Look for the GFS to give it a swift kick in the **** during its next run with a massive snow bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 If this was January, you would have been salvating at 0.75" QPF....that's not really dry. All of the models have cut back since Monday. Its not .75" of precip. .25" of it is from todays system. You need to look at precip AFTER hour 12. Look at map I posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's very difficult to trust the NAM when its the last one to the party. Look for the GFS to give it a swift kick in the **** during its next run with a massive snow bomb foot+ in the park, book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The glacial peaks of Mt Zucker may indeed be sprinkled with dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The glacial peaks of Mt Zucker may indeed be sprinkled with dendrites. I look forward to seeing their peaks glisten on the horizon in the 50 degree temperatures on Saturday as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I look forward to seeing their peaks glisten on the horizon in the 50 degree temperatures on Saturday as well are we going to warm up next week? I was hoping for some 60's ahead of the cutter, some tstorms too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Storvista snowfall map has from, Trenton to Sandy Hook north as 4-8 inches including NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 are we going to warm up next week? I was hoping for some 60's ahead of the cutter, some tstorms too We could see some severe weather on Tuesday, although much more likely south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Storvista snowfall map has from, Trenton to Sandy Hook north as 4-8 inches including NYC Those maps are awful with borderline boundary layer conditions..even the 06z run was apparently giving 4-8 further south than Philly. The bufkit and even the clown maps show nothing like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 If you use the stormvista snowfall maps, the 00z NAM apparently gave NYC 12 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 850 line never gets west of NYC on the NAM. So any precip that does fall, could be snow. We need it to be much heavier though to have any chance, this time of year. 8pm tonight - 11pm tonight. Pretty good precip with 850's and 540 line fine: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's less about east versus west and more about north versus south. and by north versus south, I mean the latitude at where the cyclogenesis occurs and the cold conveyor belt precipitation can rapidly develop. that's going to start the dynamic cooling process and would give us our snow. but it's happening too late. this storm could track further east but it wouldn't give the city snow with this type of thermal profile. But to be fair under the current nam/gfs forecasts, even if the ccb develops in time, it' would be over nw NJ and the Poconos and then swings north through albany. So it is a matter of east vs. west too as that ccb wouldnt swing east in time according to the nam/gfs to clip NYC because of the low's northward track. the new nam develops things wayyyyy too late...messes up Albany for christ sake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 see that dotted red line on the 700 mb maps? kiss of death for snow hopes east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 At one point, the models were bombing this low near the bechmark. Now they are bombing it in NE. What changed on the models? Is it because of the limited blocking up north? That and the next set of runs that came in warmer were within the 60 hr window for the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 That and the next set of runs that came in warmer were within the 60 hr window for the models. lmao, they didn't come in warmer for any reason other than that they stopped showing the low closing off south of LI. The only reason we were cold enough for snow was through dynamic cooling caused by an intense CCB. Take that away, and you have surface temps in the mid 30's at best outside of the higher eleveations. Even with 850 temps below zero, mid 30's is not going to cut it. It snowed moderatly here in Ramsey last week for about 6 hrs and it added up to about an inch of slush with nothing on the pavement. This is about as close to a non-event noreaster as you can get for anyone close to the city or east of it. This is close to a lost cause.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lmao, they didn't come in warmer for any reason other than that they stopped showing the low closing off south of LI. The only reason we were cold enough for snow was through dynamic colling caused by an intense CCB. Take that away, and you hve surface temps in the mid 30's at best outside of the higher eleveations. Even with 850 temps below zero, mid 30's is not going to cut it. It snowed moderatly here in Ramsey last week for about 6 hrs and it added up to about an inch of slush with nothing on the pavement. This is about as close to a non-event noreaster as you can get for anyone close to the city or east of it. That's because once inside 60 hrs the models could see that happening. Even in the earlier runs ,the closing off always looked too late for the colder solutions being shown.Without a good high to the north, I always want to see a nice bowling ball roll through.The change to heavy wet snow back on 4/5/06 had a really strong closed low come through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 if we had a strong cold high locked in over Canada, we wouldn't have to worry about when the low closed off. This was a marginal setup from the very beginning and needed a perfect scenario to bring heavy snow to NY metro. The 3/29 12z runs were about as close as we were going to get for that to happen. But as it goes alot of times in sports, we peaked too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 After the GFS & NAM cut precip for my area Upton rasies my snow to 8-9"...lol smh http://www.erh.noaa....totalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 FWIW, virtually none of the analogs from last night support a weak OTS brush. They almost all support big interior snows for PA and NY with coastal huggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Stuff is starting to fire up in north-central NJ already. Would love to know if some of that is snow around Randolph, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 After the GFS & NAM cut precip for my area Upton rasies my snow to 8-9"...lol smh http://www.erh.noaa....totalprecip.php I don't agree with that map at all and for multiple reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I don't agree with that map at all and for multiple reasons. What dont you agree with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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