A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 John, can you do one for MPO..... curious to see what the output is for the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 John, can you do one for MPO..... curious to see what the output is for the Poconos. THU 06Z 31-MAR 1.3 -4.3 1014 90 100 0.05 549 538 THU 12Z 31-MAR 0.8 -3.8 1012 93 91 0.03 547 537 THU 18Z 31-MAR 3.0 -2.9 1011 85 67 0.03 546 537 FRI 00Z 01-APR 1.3 -1.5 1008 97 89 0.05 544 537 FRI 06Z 01-APR 0.8 -0.5 1003 98 90 0.19 541 538 FRI 12Z 01-APR 0.8 -1.7 997 97 90 0.16 534 536 FRI 18Z 01-APR 2.2 -3.7 995 89 92 0.20 529 533 SAT 00Z 02-APR 2.1 -3.0 997 86 90 0.06 529 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Thanks A Town! Looks like the storm is trending a bit colder because it's bombing out sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Thanks A Town! Looks like the storm is trending a bit colder because it's bombing out sooner? Its actually warmer here in Allentown at the surface then it is in NYC ... I think its do to little QPF because of developing to late.... Seems like 00z is less precip and warmer... 12 Z is more precip & colder on the ECM... ( In Allentown referring) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Thanks A-town.... is the track similar to the earlier run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Thanks A-town.... is the track similar to the earlier run? Well, I do not have the 6 hr images yet because ACCU PRO does not update for about another 30 minutes (only text) However..judging by Raleighs images I would say the track is fairly similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What time do the Euro ensembles come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Since someone off-forum requested a forecast from me for an area in this thread's range... I'm thinking 3-6 inches for northern Passaic. Figured I'd share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What time do the Euro ensembles come out? Between 4 and 4:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 you think its a red flag that its colder than the gfs at this range? like the last storm... or should we just give up any hope for accumulating snow in NE jersey? The GFS is probably way too warm/west, given how excessively amplified it was with the 3/24 storm. However, even the 0z ECM sounds like a marginal event for NYC, which could be trouble on April 1st. The most discouraging trend for the storm is that the mid-levels don't really close off and bomb the coastal until much too late; you can see this on the 0z GFS, where the CCB finally develops to its full extent over Maine, dryslotting the BOS area and screwing NYC. Then it starts to print out the heavy QPF in the cold sector of the storm, but until then precip is limited on the good side of the 850 line. 0z GFS does look to be having some feedback issues...looks like a QPF bomb at 30 hours south of LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 6z NAM tries to snow bomb NYC, especially the northern suburbs, at 30: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 6z NAM tries to snow bomb NYC, especially the northern suburbs, at 30: Yea, Euro ensembles look close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yea, Euro ensembles look close. Link? It's a really close call for NYC, especially for those in the suburbs. The 6z NAM at 36 hours has the 700mb low over Waterbury, CT with the 850mb low over the CT/RI border, that's not a terrible track. I think everyone should watch this carefully, one more tick east means the City sees accumulations and the burbs are mostly snow. GFS is alone with the warmer thermal profile in contrast to NAM/ECM/ECM ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 6z NAM tries to snow bomb NYC, especially the northern suburbs, at 30: That precip falls before temps. cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Link? It's a really close call for NYC, especially for those in the suburbs. The 6z NAM at 36 hours has the 700mb low over Waterbury, CT with the 850mb low over the CT/RI border, that's not a terrible track. I think everyone should watch this carefully, one more tick east means the City sees accumulations and the burbs are mostly snow. GFS is alone with the warmer thermal profile in contrast to NAM/ECM/ECM ENS. 24 hr 48hr Would like to see in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 That precip falls before temps. cool off. It cools off somewhere between 24-30...another .1" or so falls after 30 as snow. You'd probably get like .2-.3" QPF as snow in NYC and perhaps .5" in the north suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 24 hr 48hr Would like to see in between. Man that is just the definition of nailbiter. Probably rain for NYC proper in April, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 6z NAM tries to snow bomb NYC, especially the northern suburbs, at 30: IDK if I'd call that a snow bomb considering that this is the sounding at the beginning of that period. In the middle of that period its just going over to snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm mostly talking about the northern suburbs when I say snowbomb. Can you do HPN and CDW at 27, Ray? Looks like the changeover would occur around 25-26 hours on the 6z NAM for the NW suburbs and maybe 28 hours for NYC. Close call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm mostly talking about the northern suburbs when I say snowbomb. Can you do HPN and CDW at 27, Ray? Looks like the changeover would occur around 25-26 hours on the 6z NAM for the NW suburbs and maybe 28 hours for NYC. Close call... CDW goes over first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm mostly talking about the northern suburbs when I say snowbomb. Can you do HPN and CDW at 27, Ray? Looks like the changeover would occur around 25-26 hours on the 6z NAM for the NW suburbs and maybe 28 hours for NYC. Close call... Curious too see KSWF. We are to the north but at a lower elevation (100-400'). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Wow, thanks Ray. Hammertime for NNJ and Northern Westchester on the 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Curious too see KSWF. We are to the north but at a lower elevation (100-400'). You look fine at 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 A 27 degree Celsius change in 850 mb temperature between Minneapolis and Wichita, KS at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 You look fine at 27. Thanks a bunch Ray, looks like some shovling will be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looks like the 6z GFS shifted east and is colder than previous runs. I wouldn't be shocked to see a period of snow for coastal regions. The Nam also shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 This snowfall map seems very reasonable http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/prometweatherblogs/12/2/4508/Snow-Map-For-Thursday-Night-and-Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Euro soundings are better for NYC. It shows .43" after 850's are below zero and .65" before. Surface is 36-38 though. Another tick east, and even NYC will be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 HPN soundings show .50-.60" as snow. 850 goes above only for a short time to 1.0 but then .50-.60" falls after. Surface 34-36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Fwiw, JB mentioned about a couple of hours of heavy snow with possible thunderstorms for the metro area . He said don't be shocked to see that happen. He is calling for 1-3 in the. city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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