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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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John, can you do one for MPO..... curious to see what the output is for the Poconos.

THU 06Z 31-MAR 1.3 -4.3 1014 90 100 0.05 549 538

THU 12Z 31-MAR 0.8 -3.8 1012 93 91 0.03 547 537

THU 18Z 31-MAR 3.0 -2.9 1011 85 67 0.03 546 537

FRI 00Z 01-APR 1.3 -1.5 1008 97 89 0.05 544 537

FRI 06Z 01-APR 0.8 -0.5 1003 98 90 0.19 541 538

FRI 12Z 01-APR 0.8 -1.7 997 97 90 0.16 534 536

FRI 18Z 01-APR 2.2 -3.7 995 89 92 0.20 529 533

SAT 00Z 02-APR 2.1 -3.0 997 86 90 0.06 529 531

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Thanks A Town! Looks like the storm is trending a bit colder because it's bombing out sooner?

Its actually warmer here in Allentown at the surface then it is in NYC ...

I think its do to little QPF because of developing to late....

Seems like 00z is less precip and warmer...

12 Z is more precip & colder on the ECM... ( In Allentown referring)

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you think its a red flag that its colder than the gfs at this range? like the last storm... or should we just give up any hope for accumulating snow in NE jersey?

The GFS is probably way too warm/west, given how excessively amplified it was with the 3/24 storm. However, even the 0z ECM sounds like a marginal event for NYC, which could be trouble on April 1st. The most discouraging trend for the storm is that the mid-levels don't really close off and bomb the coastal until much too late; you can see this on the 0z GFS, where the CCB finally develops to its full extent over Maine, dryslotting the BOS area and screwing NYC. Then it starts to print out the heavy QPF in the cold sector of the storm, but until then precip is limited on the good side of the 850 line.

0z GFS does look to be having some feedback issues...looks like a QPF bomb at 30 hours south of LI:

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Yea, Euro ensembles look close.

Link?

It's a really close call for NYC, especially for those in the suburbs. The 6z NAM at 36 hours has the 700mb low over Waterbury, CT with the 850mb low over the CT/RI border, that's not a terrible track. I think everyone should watch this carefully, one more tick east means the City sees accumulations and the burbs are mostly snow. GFS is alone with the warmer thermal profile in contrast to NAM/ECM/ECM ENS.

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It's a really close call for NYC, especially for those in the suburbs. The 6z NAM at 36 hours has the 700mb low over Waterbury, CT with the 850mb low over the CT/RI border, that's not a terrible track. I think everyone should watch this carefully, one more tick east means the City sees accumulations and the burbs are mostly snow. GFS is alone with the warmer thermal profile in contrast to NAM/ECM/ECM ENS.

24 hr

48hr

Would like to see in between.

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I'm mostly talking about the northern suburbs when I say snowbomb. Can you do HPN and CDW at 27, Ray?

Looks like the changeover would occur around 25-26 hours on the 6z NAM for the NW suburbs and maybe 28 hours for NYC. Close call...

CDW goes over first.

post-39-0-39423000-1301562231.gif

post-39-0-70936700-1301562241.gif

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I'm mostly talking about the northern suburbs when I say snowbomb. Can you do HPN and CDW at 27, Ray?

Looks like the changeover would occur around 25-26 hours on the 6z NAM for the NW suburbs and maybe 28 hours for NYC. Close call...

Curious too see KSWF. We are to the north but at a lower elevation (100-400').

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