eduggs Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's funny how everyone is obsessed with the 850mb 0C isotherm on the GFS surface charts. The surface low track has barely changed over the past few days but the board consensus switched from blizzard in the City to all rain based on this one line moving 50 miles. I can only remember one or two GFS runs that would have actually brought plowable snow to the NYC terminals anyway. Almost everything else has indicated mostly rain. That being said, there's still a decent chance parts of the City receive some snow from this storm, with even a small chance they receive amounts that would be historic for this time of the year. An interpolated line on a map, produced in 3 or 6 hour snapshots does not determine rain vs. snow. In reality, it can snow 100miles south of the continuous 850mb 0C line. Pockets of subfreezing air at this level can, and likely will form in areas of high UVVs and heavy precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 In the last 24hrs the GFS has cut our precip total in half up here.. But thats expected for the 2010-2011 season.. smh In reality the gap between relative QPF maxima to our west and NE will likely fill in, producing a widespread 1-1.25"+ liquid. I'm more concerned about temps than QPF. With a robust 300mb jet structure and a storm this size... mid-levels cutting off overhead, and the SLP slowing near the Cape, it's almost impossible to predict QPF. Could be .6" and it could be 2.5". It doesn't really matter what a global model prints out. We just have to get lucky with the development and evolution of precip and banding features. I just hope that whatever falls is mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 In reality the gap between relative QPF maxima to our west and NE will likely fill in, producing a widespread 1-1.25"+ liquid. I'm more concerned about temps than QPF. With a robust 300mb jet structure and a storm this size... mid-levels cutting off overhead, and the SLP slowing near the Cape, it's almost impossible to predict QPF. Could be .6" and it could be 2.5". It doesn't really matter what a global model prints out. We just have to get lucky with the development and evolution of precip and banding features. I just hope that whatever falls is mostly snow. Well I think we all agree that this most likely will be a elevation storm. What elevation do you feel substancial accumulating snow will take place? I would also think longitude plays a factor here as well. Do you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well I think we all agree that this most likely will be a elevation storm. What elevation do you feel substancial accumulating snow will take place? I would also think longitude plays a factor here as well. Do you agree? Yeah, I do agree. Lat and lon will help, just to escape the 850mb (and nearby layer) warming. But I'd much rather be on the top of Schunemunk than in Saugerties or Port Jervis. In my area of Putnam County, 500ft seems to be the magic number for serious accumulations during typical Spring snowstorms. But I think substantial accumulations will be above 1000ft (and most likely to our north). It's difficult to say because the model soundings suggest snow accumulations at even lower elevations, especially by Friday morning. But I think we will lose a lot of QPF to rain and poor ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah, I do agree. Lat and lon will help, just to escape the 850mb (and nearby layer) warming. But I'd much rather be on the top of Schunemunk than in Saugerties or Port Jervis. In my area of Putnam County, 500ft seems to be the magic number for serious accumulations during typical Spring snowstorms. But I think substantial accumulations will be above 1000ft (and most likely to our north). It's difficult to say because the model soundings suggest snow accumulations at even lower elevations, especially by Friday morning. But I think we will lose a lot of QPF to rain and poor ratios. Ughh Schunemunk .. I used to live on the east facing slope of that mountain. I can see poor ratios but rain? I just dont see rain for this part of the HV. Maybe at the onset but once it gets going I think we are in the clear out here. Once again I think the further east you are the longer you stay liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The GFS indicates snow or snow showers for all on Friday morning. Sub 528dm 500mb heights and surface temps in the low to mid 30s. So that backend of 1-2 inches might verify on the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 So that backend of 1-2 inches might verify on the coastal plain. Snow showers at those temps will not give u 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Snow showers at those temps will not give u 1-2" It looks like what Upton was going with on their last graphic, which showed anywhere from 0.5 to 1.9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS means FWIW NOGAPS takes essentially same track and keeps 850s cold enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ughh Schunemunk .. I used to live on the east facing slope of that mountain. I can see poor ratios but rain? I just dont see rain for this part of the HV. Maybe at the onset but once it gets going I think we are in the clear out here. Once again I think the further east you are the longer you stay liquid. At KSWF and KFWN on the GFS, everything below 850-800mb warms to near 0C by 06z tomorrow night into Friday morning. And the surface is just above freezing. If that's right, or worse, a little too cold, it could definitely rain at least for periods. With mid-level warming, it just cannot be ruled out, at least until you get well up into Ulster or Sullivan. If the low-mid levels turn out favorable, then it's just a matter of precip intensity and how easily we cool the surface to 33 or 34F. Like you, I expect mostly frozen ptypes beginning tomorrow late evening for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 So that backend of 1-2 inches might verify on the coastal plain. Can't be ruled out with deepening upper level low moving right overhead Friday morning. By the time it reaches Boston, they could see sub 520dm, which are heights otherwise confined to northern Canada. We'd need to get lucky with some heavier snowbands lingering on the backside of the 700mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Heres UK 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Can't be ruled out with deepening upper level low moving right overhead Friday morning. By the time it reaches Boston, they could see sub 520dm, which are heights otherwise confined to northern Canada. We'd need to get lucky with some heavier snowbands lingering on the backside of the 700mb low. How much are you thinking for Boston? Im thinking 3-6 inches up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I drew up this nice illustration of the past 2 days of 00z Euro runs at Nzuckers house for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I drew up this nice illustration of the past 2 days of 00z Euro runs at Nzuckers house for you guys Though to be fair, those two images are not valid for the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Euro still looking way colder than the gfs with 0c 850s east of the big cities by hr 36, and then 0.25 -0.50 more thru hr 42.. So there is definately some snow involved here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Euro still looking way colder than the gfs with 0c 850s east of the big cities by hr 36, and then 0.25 -0.50 more thru hr 42.. So there is definately some snow involved here. By the time this storm actually comes to fruition, the trauma of all these disparate model runs will fragment Zucker's mind into about 10 different personalities (two of which John has illustrated above).... there will be a different personality for each model and each ensemble mean also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Euro is a hair colder again...looks like 0.25-0.50" at least QPF as snow west of NYC after the initial WAA push...if this solution verified there would be a few inches west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Euro is a hair colder again...looks like 0.25-0.50" at least QPF as snow west of NYC after the initial WAA push...if this solution verified there would be a few inches west of the city. John, in terms of track, is it identical to the 12z run or a few miles (10 maybe?) east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Euro is a hair colder again...looks like 0.25-0.50" at least QPF as snow west of NYC after the initial WAA push...if this solution verified there would be a few inches west of the city. you think its a red flag that its colder than the gfs at this range? like the last storm... or should we just give up any hope for accumulating snow in NE jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 How is NE PA...NW NJ... SE NY lookin on the Euro? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 How is NE PA...NW NJ... SE NY lookin on the Euro? Thanks in advance What's your closest reporting station? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What's your closest reporting station? MGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What's your closest reporting station? Would you mind doing KAVP? My 8 year old's birthday party is Saturday morning and I need to pick her up Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 MGJ In order: Day/time/date/2mtemp/850temp/pressure/rh/700rh/6hrqpf/500height/1000-500thk FRI 06Z 01-APR 1.5 -0.4 1003 98 91 0.18 542 539 FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.0 -1.5 997 96 97 0.39 535 538 FRI 18Z 01-APR 1.6 -4.2 994 89 94 0.46 529 534 SAT 00Z 02-APR 2.2 -3.2 995 89 93 0.16 528 532 SAT 06Z 02-APR 0.5 -3.2 996 83 73 0.01 527 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Would you mind doing KAVP? My 8 year old's birthday party is Saturday morning and I need to pick her up Friday night. Looks snowy to me THU 18Z 31-MAR 3.1 -3.4 1010 81 57 0.03 545 537 FRI 00Z 01-APR 1.4 -2.1 1008 96 77 0.03 543 536 FRI 06Z 01-APR 0.6 -0.9 1003 98 94 0.13 540 537 FRI 12Z 01-APR 0.5 -2.3 998 98 86 0.16 534 535 FRI 18Z 01-APR 2.1 -3.8 996 87 93 0.16 530 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 How much are you thinking for Boston? Im thinking 3-6 inches up that way. I'd lean toward the low end of that range, and conservative in general. It's even possible the east end gets very little. The track looks to go right over or near Boston. I don't like frontside snows in Spring, and it's even worse with that track. So they'll be battling the mid-levels and the surface temps. By the time they're into the wraparound it's Friday afternoon. But I haven't looked at New England much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'd lean toward the low end of that range, and conservative in general. It's even possible the east end gets very little. The track looks to go right over or near Boston. I don't like frontside snows in Spring, and it's even worse with that track. So they'll be battling the mid-levels and the surface temps. By the time they're into the wraparound it's Friday afternoon. But I haven't looked at New England much. Interior/Elevation event.... might be a foot plus from the Poconos through Worcester. My sister lives in Carbon County, which is NW of Allentown and about 2000 ft elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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