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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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Beware of the HRRR. It's overdone on the precip. to our SW. Where is all the heavy precip. it's showing now from Baltimore and DC south into central Virginia? Radar shows only light to moderate showers east of BWI/DC heading almost due east.

The NAM is starting wake up from it's long nap

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This is just cruel here, 0C 850 line right over Westchester, probably snow in the northern hills but rain here...Nam at 30:

As much as i have ribbed you in the pms..........the nam is horrible, does not have a clue, joined the party at the last minute and throws its usual mega amped qpf bomb, shove that by about 50 miles east and its closer to reality. Still dont think mt zucker sees and significant accums, but snow will def be in the air on and off mixed with rain the next 48 hrs.

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As much as i have ribbed you in the pms..........the nam is horrible, does not have a clue, joined the party at the last minute and throws its usual mega amped qpf bomb, shove that by about 50 miles east and its closer to reality. Still dont think mt zucker sees and significant accums, but snow will def be in the air on and off mixed with rain the next 48 hrs.

I'd go with 1-3" here but I've been wrong before. 50 miles one direction I am golden, 50 miles the other way and it is all a cold rain.

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It's almost impossible to get excited for a winter storm this late in the season until it's here. This will probably crush the Poconos, Catskills, and then on north though. Great late season skiing.

I just warned my friend in the Catskills that he should expect a lot of snow.:sun:

Something we should discuss is if this could still signal an el nino for next winter..... April 1982 and April 1997 were precursor storms to el ninos the following winters.

The Nina is weakening. I wonder if this is just temporary or if it is going to continue to weaken as we head into Spring. I hope next winter is a weak El Nino. I wouldn't mind a strong El Nino with a -AO,-NAO and +PNA :snowman:

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The precip over PA is weakening quickly as it moves east. I doubt we see anything outside of a coating tonight.

I think we'll see some light rain, with a few snowflakes in some spots.

A coating would require a period of higher intensity precipitation to cool surface temps significantly. But a few obs in Pa, as others have noted, are encouraging.

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of course the yankees won't play friday...they don't have a game scheduled.....

You missed my point-- if tomorrow is rained out, Friday is the back up option. Im saying that there will probably be no game tomorrow and the back up option will be rained out also.

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