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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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According to that, I get 6-12" about 15 miles NW of Philly while the airport gets a couple inches or nothing. The SE-NW gradient seems way too steep.

Tell that to JB. I think the inference is that he intended that there be some transistion zone of 0-3" in the white area adjacent to the edge of the light blue area.

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Going to be a close situation folks....lower levels both at 925 and the surface are very warm fuelded by a southerly flow...

No closed low at H925 as well, and being so late in the year, the true cold pool of air is too far north to reach.

SPC Mesoanalysis for 925: Notice the cold pocket with northerly winds over PA and Ohio

post-519-0-01247700-1301532754.gif

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They busted low in NE NJ/ LI and high in Westchester in the 3/24 storm.

They have every reason to hug the Euro, it's the best model and killed the GFS on the last storm. Remember how it tracked the low off NJ on 3/24? gun_bandana.gif

They busted low here also.

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Maybe I have the advantage over NYC metro this time given the longitude dependency of the storm. Here in Villanova NW of Philly I'm at 480ft, at an even more oxygen deprived environment than Nate.

Heh, in a weird way this storm reminds me of December 2002-- you remember that, where we were waiting for the rain/snow line to move east. Most of us should be good for at least an inch if this verifies.

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Somethings wrong when the NAM is showing accumulating snow for all of us for TONIGHT and we're all acting like it's not even there.

Actually some of the local forecasts have snow mixing in tonight (News12 even said up to inch by tomorrow and more accumulations possible Friday)..... but we're all focused on the second threat.

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OKX sounding is out. I'm thinking mostly rain below 500 ft tonight aside from flakes mixing in in some heavier bursts. The banded nature of the precip., and the fact that it is weakening as it heads east, will make it difficult to get enough dynamic cooling to change to snow.

*If* we can get a decent band of precip. associated with the coastal low toward dawn, that would be the best chance for accumulating snow. I'm skeptical of the RUC and HRRR, because they are already a good bit too far west with the precip. they show over SE VA.

72501 OKX Upton Observations at 00Z 31 Mar 2011

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV

hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1014.0 20 5.0 -1.0 65 3.52 235 3 277.1 286.9 277.6

1000.0 137 3.8 -3.2 60 3.03 215 11 276.9 285.5 277.5

989.0 227 3.2 -4.8 56 2.72 218 15 277.2 285.0 277.7

979.5 305 3.6 -5.1 53 2.69 220 19 278.4 286.1 278.9

975.0 342 3.8 -5.2 52 2.67 217 18 279.0 286.6 279.4

949.0 561 3.2 -4.8 56 2.83 199 10 280.5 288.7 281.0

943.3 610 3.2 -5.2 54 2.76 195 8 281.0 289.0 281.5

926.0 760 3.4 -6.6 48 2.53 101 4 282.7 290.1 283.1

925.0 769 3.4 -6.6 48 2.53 95 4 282.8 290.2 283.2

908.5 914 2.3 -7.1 50 2.48 30 1 283.1 290.4 283.5

874.6 1219 -0.1 -8.1 55 2.38 20 9 283.7 290.7 284.1

850.0 1448 -1.9 -8.9 59 2.31 350 7 284.1 291.0 284.5

844.0 1504 -2.3 -9.3 59 2.25 332 6 284.3 291.0 284.7

810.0 1829 -3.8 -16.0 38 1.36 230 3 286.1 290.2 286.3

799.0 1938 -4.3 -18.3 33 1.14 230 4 286.6 290.2 286.9

779.2 2134 -5.5 -19.1 33 1.09 230 6 287.4 290.9 287.6

749.5 2438 -7.3 -20.4 34 1.01 225 8 288.7 291.9 288.9

743.0 2506 -7.7 -20.7 34 1.00 229 8 289.0 292.1 289.1

734.0 2601 -7.3 -29.3 15 0.46 236 7 290.4 292.0 290.5

729.0 2655 -7.3 -24.3 24 0.74 239 7 291.0 293.4 291.1

720.8 2743 -7.7 -24.2 25 0.75 245 6 291.5 293.9 291.6

713.0 2827 -8.1 -24.1 26 0.77 249 7 291.9 294.5 292.1

705.0 2915 -8.1 -28.1 18 0.54 253 8 292.9 294.7 293.0

700.0 2970 -7.7 -33.7 10 0.32 255 9 293.9 295.0 294.0

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That sounding shows the freezing level at 900mb. Lot of warm air to eat through for snow to make it to the ground for the Island. We don't have much help from dry dewpoints either to wetbulb down. :(

The culprit is likely the southerly flow :(

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