CooL Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 NAM wasn't a lost cause after all I love how only bergen county is in that little area of pink which is 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Radar is looking impressive. Hopefully we all wake up to a nice surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Tulip-twistin', hyacinth harrasin', daffodil disaster on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Short range models are picking up on it also now. New HRRR simulated radar for 4am tonight is very nice. I'm on phone, so can't post. let me help you out with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 There u go Trials. That should wake up people. Event though HRRR is a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I would put the epicenter in the Berkshires and Southern Greens, someone there above 2000 feet is going to jackpot over 20 inches. I think the cold water here at the coast might give some surprises ala 1995 someone with some elevation NE Nassau could squeak out a couple slush inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 John, step away from the computer....or at least your favorites menu. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 John, step away from the computer....or at least your favorites menu. Jesus. I needed to lighten the mood in this thread...everybody seemed uptight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I have 71 feet elevation. Do you guys think I'll see more snow than my neighbors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I have 71 feet elevation. Do you guys think I'll see more snow than my neighbors? Mt. Zucker said "every foot matters", so u should see more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I have 71 feet elevation. Do you guys think I'll see more snow than my neighbors? Hahaha nice. Yeah more then me at 7 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The 10" we got up this way last week is finally gone on the south slops but still 50% coverage on the north facing slopes. Just in time for another 5-10"? OK if it must but then please let spring arrive for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 I have 71 feet elevation. Do you guys think I'll see more snow than my neighbors? I'm elevated by roughly 150 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I have 71 feet elevation. Do you guys think I'll see more snow than my neighbors? Not even close to zuckerland, you should stay in the 40's and all rain in pazzoville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 According to that, I get 6-12" about 15 miles NW of Philly while the airport gets a couple inches or nothing. The SE-NW gradient seems way too steep. Tell that to JB. I think the inference is that he intended that there be some transistion zone of 0-3" in the white area adjacent to the edge of the light blue area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Not even close to zuckerland, you should stay in the 40's and all rain in pazzoville If it's not 350' and close to Dobbs Ferry, you're sol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Going to be a close situation folks....lower levels both at 925 and the surface are very warm fuelded by a southerly flow... No closed low at H925 as well, and being so late in the year, the true cold pool of air is too far north to reach. SPC Mesoanalysis for 925: Notice the cold pocket with northerly winds over PA and Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It'll be interesting to see whether tonight actually becomes something for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 They busted low in NE NJ/ LI and high in Westchester in the 3/24 storm. They have every reason to hug the Euro, it's the best model and killed the GFS on the last storm. Remember how it tracked the low off NJ on 3/24? They busted low here also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm elevated by roughly 150 feet If you're near any tall buildings, you should see some interesting "action" on the roof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Maybe I have the advantage over NYC metro this time given the longitude dependency of the storm. Here in Villanova NW of Philly I'm at 480ft, at an even more oxygen deprived environment than Nate. Heh, in a weird way this storm reminds me of December 2002-- you remember that, where we were waiting for the rain/snow line to move east. Most of us should be good for at least an inch if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Somethings wrong when the NAM is showing accumulating snow for all of us for TONIGHT and we're all acting like it's not even there. Actually some of the local forecasts have snow mixing in tonight (News12 even said up to inch by tomorrow and more accumulations possible Friday)..... but we're all focused on the second threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 OKX sounding is out. I'm thinking mostly rain below 500 ft tonight aside from flakes mixing in in some heavier bursts. The banded nature of the precip., and the fact that it is weakening as it heads east, will make it difficult to get enough dynamic cooling to change to snow. *If* we can get a decent band of precip. associated with the coastal low toward dawn, that would be the best chance for accumulating snow. I'm skeptical of the RUC and HRRR, because they are already a good bit too far west with the precip. they show over SE VA. 72501 OKX Upton Observations at 00Z 31 Mar 2011 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1014.0 20 5.0 -1.0 65 3.52 235 3 277.1 286.9 277.6 1000.0 137 3.8 -3.2 60 3.03 215 11 276.9 285.5 277.5 989.0 227 3.2 -4.8 56 2.72 218 15 277.2 285.0 277.7 979.5 305 3.6 -5.1 53 2.69 220 19 278.4 286.1 278.9 975.0 342 3.8 -5.2 52 2.67 217 18 279.0 286.6 279.4 949.0 561 3.2 -4.8 56 2.83 199 10 280.5 288.7 281.0 943.3 610 3.2 -5.2 54 2.76 195 8 281.0 289.0 281.5 926.0 760 3.4 -6.6 48 2.53 101 4 282.7 290.1 283.1 925.0 769 3.4 -6.6 48 2.53 95 4 282.8 290.2 283.2 908.5 914 2.3 -7.1 50 2.48 30 1 283.1 290.4 283.5 874.6 1219 -0.1 -8.1 55 2.38 20 9 283.7 290.7 284.1 850.0 1448 -1.9 -8.9 59 2.31 350 7 284.1 291.0 284.5 844.0 1504 -2.3 -9.3 59 2.25 332 6 284.3 291.0 284.7 810.0 1829 -3.8 -16.0 38 1.36 230 3 286.1 290.2 286.3 799.0 1938 -4.3 -18.3 33 1.14 230 4 286.6 290.2 286.9 779.2 2134 -5.5 -19.1 33 1.09 230 6 287.4 290.9 287.6 749.5 2438 -7.3 -20.4 34 1.01 225 8 288.7 291.9 288.9 743.0 2506 -7.7 -20.7 34 1.00 229 8 289.0 292.1 289.1 734.0 2601 -7.3 -29.3 15 0.46 236 7 290.4 292.0 290.5 729.0 2655 -7.3 -24.3 24 0.74 239 7 291.0 293.4 291.1 720.8 2743 -7.7 -24.2 25 0.75 245 6 291.5 293.9 291.6 713.0 2827 -8.1 -24.1 26 0.77 249 7 291.9 294.5 292.1 705.0 2915 -8.1 -28.1 18 0.54 253 8 292.9 294.7 293.0 700.0 2970 -7.7 -33.7 10 0.32 255 9 293.9 295.0 294.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Radar is looking impressive. Hopefully we all wake up to a nice surprise After the way people have trashed the NAM, it would actually end up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 After the way people have trashed the NAM, it would actually end up being right. That sounding shows the freezing level at 900mb. Lot of warm air to eat through for snow to make it to the ground for the Island. We don't have much help from dry dewpoints either to wetbulb down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 New OBS thread is up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 That sounding shows the freezing level at 900mb. Lot of warm air to eat through for snow to make it to the ground for the Island. We don't have much help from dry dewpoints either to wetbulb down. The culprit is likely the southerly flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Beware of the HRRR. It's overdone on the precip. to our SW. Where is all the heavy precip. it's showing now from Baltimore and DC south into central Virginia? Radar shows only light to moderate showers east of BWI/DC heading almost due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 NAM finally realized there's a storm tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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