Quincy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The lead system is really producing out in OH and western PA - lots of reports of visibility 1/2 mile or less in snow. This year has had a history of overrunning systems out ahead of the main system overperforming and producing "surprise" snowfall - Jan 26 and Mar 23 stand out as good examples. This lead system should be watched carefully. Although the system will be running into dry air aloft, GOES soundings show the air mass is not as dry forecast by the GFS: http://www.osdpd.noa...t/html/nyc.html No model is really catching the extent of moderate to heavy precip. over western and central PA and northern MD right now, though the 18z runs are starting to get the right idea. even with the RUC initializing relatively dry compared to verification, it shows the first low winding up and heading towards ACK tomorrow morning, plenty of precip from NYC on northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Interesting Jconsor. Also, DC area has temps in the mid to upper 30's. And lots are reporting snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Can a met chime in about the wind potential with this system? 984 is nothing to sneeze at.... 1+ of rain for the city I just examined the 18Z GFS BUFKIT for New Brunswick. At around 09Z on Friday there is a 45kt wind maxima around 2,000 feet above the surface. The mixed layer will reach up to right around that area, and the momentum transfer spits out 25-30kts at the time. So windy, but nothing insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If the trends are colder on tonight's runs, then the city will be on the fringe of snow and rain for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 hrrr brings accumulating snows into nyc metro later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 it's been an odd week tracking this first wave... initially it looked like there would only be one wave, late wed/early thu. then it looked like two waves, then it looked like one wave missing south, then a second hit. then today a last-minute jog north. Even mets like Craig Allen were calling for all precip to stay well south of NYC up until maybe 12 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm surprised there are no winter wx advisories out for OH/PA. METAR KCLE 302251Z 02010KT 1/2SM SN FZFG BKN005 OVC009 M01/M02 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP153 SNINCR 1/3 P0006 T10111022 $ 3" of snow accumulation in 3 hours at Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 it's been an odd week tracking this first wave... initially it looked like there would only be one wave, late wed/early thu. then it looked like two waves, then it looked like one wave missing south, then a second hit. then today a last-minute jog north. Even mets like Craig Allen were calling for all precip to stay well south of NYC up until maybe 12 hours ago... Kind of makes you wonder if the NAM is correct with s/w interference galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 even with the RUC initializing relatively dry compared to verification, it shows the first low winding up and heading towards ACK tomorrow morning, plenty of precip from NYC on northeastward. RUC is known for being a bit too amplified and too far north, but still, this should set off some alarm bells: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I just examined the 18Z GFS BUFKIT for New Brunswick. At around 09Z on Friday there is a 45kt wind maxima around 2,000 feet above the surface. The mixed layer will reach up to right around that area, and the momentum transfer spits out 25-30kts at the time. So windy, but nothing insane. Thanks jake...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Any words on the gefs? saw in the sne thread its pretty amp up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Any words on the gefs? saw in the sne thread its pretty amp up.... the mean takes the same track as the op it looks like. Low goes right over boston and the eastern tip of long island. It takes a beautiful track (like the last 3 noreasters) just inside the BM, no suprise there... and would crush us if we were in the heart of winter,but the cold air is just to stale for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Any words on the gefs? saw in the sne thread its pretty amp up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Thanks doug....going to get my umbrella now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You may need a plow with that umbrella. Thanks doug....going to get my umbrella now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Thanks doug....going to get my umbrella now.... There's some good backend snows in there for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looks like JB thinks that the rain/snow line should be the I-95 Corridor. JB's dark blue line looks like it goes straight from Trenton to Perth Amboy and since I'm about 5 miles NW of Perth Amboy, I guess that means I'm in the heavy snow! Assuming dark blue means heavy snow and assuming JB is right, that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The 850 0 line at 42 hours on the GEFS runs through NYC, and almost due south--slightly east of south, from there. It's barely grazing eastern Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I dont see a lot of wrap around the gefs. By the time its cold enough, most of the precip is gone. If you look at the individual gefs, you can see it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 sneaky snows tonight, obs from se pa west of philly are promising, and so is radar, sneaky sneaky snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I dont see a lot of wrap around the gefs. By the time its cold enough, most of the precip is gone. If you look at the individual gefs, you can see it better. I saw the HPN soundings somewhere and they had almost an inch of precip as snow there after an initial shot of rain. That was the OP and the GEFS are a hair better. Keep the faith alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I saw the HPN soundings somewhere and they had almost an inch of precip as snow there after an initial shot of rain. That was the OP and the GEFS are a hair better. Keep the faith alive! Peoples tune will change tonight or tomorrow 12z when the models shift 50-100 miles southeast. sarcasm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 But in reality, that's all it would take. 50-100 miles southeast of the current euro position and more of us will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 JB's dark blue line looks like it goes straight from Trenton to Perth Amboy and since I'm about 5 miles NW of Perth Amboy, I guess that means I'm in the heavy snow! Assuming dark blue means heavy snow and assuming JB is right, that is... btw, the light blue area is 3-6," dark blue 6-12" and red >12." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Maybe I have the advantage over NYC metro this time given the longitude dependency of the storm. Here in Villanova NW of Philly I'm at 480ft, at an even more oxygen deprived environment than Nate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 btw, the light blue area is 3-6," dark blue 6-12" and red >12." According to that, I get 6-12" about 15 miles NW of Philly while the airport gets a couple inches or nothing. The SE-NW gradient seems way too steep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 NAM wasn't a lost cause after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Somethings wrong when the NAM is showing accumulating snow for all of us for TONIGHT and we're all acting like it's not even there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Somethings wrong when the NAM is showing accumulating snow for all of us for TONIGHT and we're all acting like it's not even there. Short range models are picking up on it also now. New HRRR simulated radar for 4am tonight is very nice. I'm on phone, so can't post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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