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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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The lead system is really producing out in OH and western PA - lots of reports of visibility 1/2 mile or less in snow. This year has had a history of overrunning systems out ahead of the main system overperforming and producing "surprise" snowfall - Jan 26 and Mar 23 stand out as good examples. This lead system should be watched carefully. Although the system will be running into dry air aloft, GOES soundings show the air mass is not as dry forecast by the GFS:

http://www.osdpd.noa...t/html/nyc.html

No model is really catching the extent of moderate to heavy precip. over western and central PA and northern MD right now, though the 18z runs are starting to get the right idea.

even with the RUC initializing relatively dry compared to verification, it shows the first low winding up and heading towards ACK tomorrow morning, plenty of precip from NYC on northeastward.

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Can a met chime in about the wind potential with this system? 984 is nothing to sneeze at....

1+ of rain for the city

I just examined the 18Z GFS BUFKIT for New Brunswick. At around 09Z on Friday there is a 45kt wind maxima around 2,000 feet above the surface. The mixed layer will reach up to right around that area, and the momentum transfer spits out 25-30kts at the time. So windy, but nothing insane.

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it's been an odd week tracking this first wave...

initially it looked like there would only be one wave, late wed/early thu. then it looked like two waves, then it looked like one wave missing south, then a second hit. then today a last-minute jog north. Even mets like Craig Allen were calling for all precip to stay well south of NYC up until maybe 12 hours ago...

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it's been an odd week tracking this first wave...

initially it looked like there would only be one wave, late wed/early thu. then it looked like two waves, then it looked like one wave missing south, then a second hit. then today a last-minute jog north. Even mets like Craig Allen were calling for all precip to stay well south of NYC up until maybe 12 hours ago...

Kind of makes you wonder if the NAM is correct with s/w interference galore. :lol:

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even with the RUC initializing relatively dry compared to verification, it shows the first low winding up and heading towards ACK tomorrow morning, plenty of precip from NYC on northeastward.

RUC is known for being a bit too amplified and too far north, but still, this should set off some alarm bells:

post-88-0-86606200-1301526300.png

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I just examined the 18Z GFS BUFKIT for New Brunswick. At around 09Z on Friday there is a 45kt wind maxima around 2,000 feet above the surface. The mixed layer will reach up to right around that area, and the momentum transfer spits out 25-30kts at the time. So windy, but nothing insane.

Thanks jake......

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Any words on the gefs? saw in the sne thread its pretty amp up....

the mean takes the same track as the op it looks like. Low goes right over boston and the eastern tip of long island. It takes a beautiful track (like the last 3 noreasters) just inside the BM, no suprise there... and would crush us if we were in the heart of winter,but the cold air is just to stale for the coast.

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Looks like JB thinks that the rain/snow line should be the I-95 Corridor.

Screen-shot-2011-03-30-at-3.39.37-PM.png

JB's dark blue line looks like it goes straight from Trenton to Perth Amboy and since I'm about 5 miles NW of Perth Amboy, I guess that means I'm in the heavy snow! Assuming dark blue means heavy snow and assuming JB is right, that is...

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I dont see a lot of wrap around the gefs. By the time its cold enough, most of the precip is gone. If you look at the individual gefs, you can see it better.

I saw the HPN soundings somewhere and they had almost an inch of precip as snow there after an initial shot of rain. That was the OP and the GEFS are a hair better. Keep the faith alive! :thumbsup:

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I saw the HPN soundings somewhere and they had almost an inch of precip as snow there after an initial shot of rain. That was the OP and the GEFS are a hair better. Keep the faith alive! :thumbsup:

Peoples tune will change tonight or tomorrow 12z when the models shift 50-100 miles southeast.

sarcasm....

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JB's dark blue line looks like it goes straight from Trenton to Perth Amboy and since I'm about 5 miles NW of Perth Amboy, I guess that means I'm in the heavy snow! Assuming dark blue means heavy snow and assuming JB is right, that is...

btw, the light blue area is 3-6," dark blue 6-12" and red >12."

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Somethings wrong when the NAM is showing accumulating snow for all of us for TONIGHT and we're all acting like it's not even there.

Short range models are picking up on it also now.

New HRRR simulated radar for 4am tonight is very nice.

I'm on phone, so can't post.

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