Diego Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looking better at Upton. ALL ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEEPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLY SPRING WINTER STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW PASSING NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK...BUT STILL SOME VERY IMPORTANT DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT. THE 00Z NAM IS FASTER AND SUBSEQUENTLY FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE GFS IS BACK TO BEING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A RESULT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 18Z/29 GFS...UKMET AND CMC...SO THIS SOLN WAS USED. THESE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE COULD CAUSE MAJOR SHIFT IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. H85 TEMPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES ARE OF CONCERN AS THEY ARE BETWEEN -3 AND -5C MODERATE PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EVAP COOLING AND INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW COULD AID IN COLDER TEMPS AND MORE SNOW THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. SINCE CURRENTLY HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOW BEING REACHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR ZONES...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH. NOT SURE WHERE THE BOUNDARY OF WARMER AIR AND RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE IN THIS COMPLEX SITUATION...AND THE WATCH MOST DEFINITELY COULD BE EXPANDED LATER TODAY. SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAIN FRI MORNING AND WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING WHERE SNOW FALLS LEADING TO A HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND OUTAGES. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM FRI. POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVSY DOES EXIST...BUT WILL BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looking better at Upton. ALL ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEEPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLY SPRING WINTER STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW PASSING NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK...BUT STILL SOME VERY IMPORTANT DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT. THE 00Z NAM IS FASTER AND SUBSEQUENTLY FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE GFS IS BACK TO BEING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A RESULT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 18Z/29 GFS...UKMET AND CMC...SO THIS SOLN WAS USED. THESE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE COULD CAUSE MAJOR SHIFT IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. H85 TEMPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES ARE OF CONCERN AS THEY ARE BETWEEN -3 AND -5C MODERATE PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EVAP COOLING AND INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW COULD AID IN COLDER TEMPS AND MORE SNOW THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. SINCE CURRENTLY HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOW BEING REACHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR ZONES...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH. NOT SURE WHERE THE BOUNDARY OF WARMER AIR AND RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE IN THIS COMPLEX SITUATION...AND THE WATCH MOST DEFINITELY COULD BE EXPANDED LATER TODAY. SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAIN FRI MORNING AND WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING WHERE SNOW FALLS LEADING TO A HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND OUTAGES. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM FRI. POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVSY DOES EXIST...BUT WILL BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. Old discussion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looking better at Upton. ALL ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEEPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLY SPRING WINTER STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW PASSING NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK...BUT STILL SOME VERY IMPORTANT DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT. THE 00Z NAM IS FASTER AND SUBSEQUENTLY FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE GFS IS BACK TO BEING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A RESULT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 18Z/29 GFS...UKMET AND CMC...SO THIS SOLN WAS USED. THESE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE COULD CAUSE MAJOR SHIFT IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. H85 TEMPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES ARE OF CONCERN AS THEY ARE BETWEEN -3 AND -5C MODERATE PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EVAP COOLING AND INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW COULD AID IN COLDER TEMPS AND MORE SNOW THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. SINCE CURRENTLY HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOW BEING REACHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR ZONES...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH. NOT SURE WHERE THE BOUNDARY OF WARMER AIR AND RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE IN THIS COMPLEX SITUATION...AND THE WATCH MOST DEFINITELY COULD BE EXPANDED LATER TODAY. SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAIN FRI MORNING AND WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING WHERE SNOW FALLS LEADING TO A HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND OUTAGES. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM FRI. POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVSY DOES EXIST...BUT WILL BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. Oddly, though, this text hasn't changed since 5:35 am this morning - not sure what's wrong and have no idea if the Upton folks even know. I can't imagine them not having changed the wording for the short term forecast. See the link... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=9&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Very bullish over Sussex County http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 it's going to be a close call, but looks very marginal for the coastal plain and even a bit inland. NW NJ and portions of NW CT and the mid/upper Hudson Valley should do well...anything that falls from 14z on during the day on Friday is going to have to come down like gangbusters to fall as accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Very bullish over Sussex County http://www.erh.noaa....lSnow/index.php Higher elevations in Sussex will get well over 9".. I can see the High Point monument in the distance to my south & I think we will get 8-12" up here EDIT: Bottomline is elevation is gonna play a big part in snow totals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Old discussion.. Oddly, though, this text hasn't changed since 5:35 am this morning - not sure what's wrong and have no idea if the Upton folks even know. I can't imagine them not having changed the wording for the short term forecast. See the link... http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off You're right, they haven't changed it. By now, they usually would have unless they're delaying it. My quote was taken from their AFD at 4:39pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_localnyc/here-we-snow-again-another-winter-storm-set-to-sock-nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This run is coming in a little colder through 30 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 at 33 hrs it is still colder. 850 line runs between the Rts. 78 and 80 corridors to just north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 http://news.yahoo.co...set-to-sock-nyc Is that you on the bicycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 850 line runs through Sussex County at 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Is that you on the bicycle? Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 39 hrs 988mb just off NJ 850 line along Rt. 287 and 78 west of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 at 42 hrs a 984mb is centered just south of the eastern tip of Long Island with the 850 line north to south along Rt. 287, deformation is through eastern PA and NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 hr 42 850 line down the center of NJ...low 988 just se the tip of LI....nw jersey and ne pa get a good dump of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 45 hrs has a 984mb centered east of the eastern tip of Long Island with deformation snows for NE PA and NW NJ. the 850 line over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 at 48 hrs a 980 is centered over Cape Cod with light snow back through northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 total qpf between 1.00 and 1.25 throughout the area and 1.25 to 1.50 for eastern Long Island and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Can a met chime in about the wind potential with this system? 984 is nothing to sneeze at.... 1+ of rain for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Took another jog east. Towards euro. Let's hope this continues right thru 0z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Still wrap-around snows in CT at 54 as the low spins in the Gulf of Maine at 976mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Finally we are getting consensus. This run looks very much like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 18z GFS is a nice snowstorm up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Can a met chime in about the wind potential with this system? 984 is nothing to sneeze at.... 1+ of rain for the city With no high pressure to speak of anywhere, the pressure gradient will not be there for any big winds to write home about..The best winds would be when the storm is strengthening rapidly. 30-35 mph gusts...I suppose 40 mph possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 With no high pressure to speak of anywhere, the pressure gradient will not be there for any big winds to write home about..The best winds would be when the storm is strengthening rapidly. 30-35 mph gusts...I suppose 40 mph possibly Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Not a bad run, but we are running out of time. However, I like how the storm is 984mb at our latitude, and the gfs just said hey to the colder euro. nam still looks way different. Sad, we are less then 48 hrs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 it's going to be a close call, but looks very marginal for the coastal plain and even a bit inland. NW NJ and portions of NW CT and the mid/upper Hudson Valley should do well...anything that falls from 14z on during the day on Friday is going to have to come down like gangbusters to fall as accumulating snow. JB doesn't think its going to be marginal inland goin for 6 -12 with the shapest cutoff seen in a while 6-12 Northern Middlesex/Union County NJ - and nothing 15 miles south of there.... http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looks like JB thinks that the rain/snow line should be the I-95 Corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The lead system is really producing out in OH and western PA - lots of reports of visibility 1/2 mile or less in snow. This year has had a history of overrunning systems out ahead of the main system overperforming and producing "surprise" snowfall - Jan 26 and Mar 23 stand out as good examples. This lead system should be watched carefully. Although the system will be running into dry air aloft, GOES soundings show the air mass is not as dry forecast by the GFS: http://www.osdpd.noa...t/html/nyc.html No model is really catching the extent of moderate to heavy precip. over western and central PA and northern MD right now, though the 18z runs are starting to get the right idea. NORTHEAST OHIO CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CLE-HOPKINS SNOW 30 29 96 N13 29.96S VSB 1/2 WCI 20 CLE-LAKEFRONT SNOW 31 29 92 N16 29.95S VSB 1/4 WCI 20 CUY CO. ARPT SNOW 32 30 93 N12 29.94S VSB 3/8 WCI 23 LORAIN-ELYRIA SNOW 30 28 92 NE8 29.95S VSB 1/2 WCI 22 ASHTABULA HVY SNOW 31 28 89 N5 29.92S VSB 1/4 WCI 26 WOOSTER SNOW 30 27 86 N12 29.90S VSB 1/2 WCI 21 MANSFIELD SNOW 28 27 96 N10 29.90S VSB 1/2 WCI 19 YOUNGSTOWN HVY SNOW 33 31 92 N5 29.87S VSB 1/4 WCI 29 WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS MEADVILLE SNOW 33 30 88 VRB5 29.89R VSB 1/2 FRANKLIN* CLOUDY 32 30 93 E7 29.90R VSB 1/2 BEAVER COUNTY SNOW 34 34 100 CALM 29.87F VSB 1/2 PITTSBURGH INT LGT SNOW 33 31 92 E9 29.83F VSB CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BRADFORD CLOUDY 35 24 64 SE9G18 29.85S DUBOIS HVY SNOW 31 29 92 E10 29.86F VSB 1/4 CLEARFIELD HVY SNOW 32 31 96 E8 29.90F VSB 1/4 JOHNSTOWN SNOW 30 28 92 SE5 29.83F VSB 1/2 ALTOONA SNOW 34 30 86 SE3 29.91F VSB 1/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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