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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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Looking better at Upton.

ALL ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEEPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY

TILTED AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN

EARLY SPRING WINTER STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE

COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW PASSING NEAR

THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK...BUT STILL SOME VERY IMPORTANT DETAILS TO

BE WORKED OUT. THE 00Z NAM IS FASTER AND SUBSEQUENTLY FURTHER EAST

WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. ON

THE FLIP SIDE...THE GFS IS BACK TO BEING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH

THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST

AS A RESULT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WHICH HAS SUPPORT

FROM THE 18Z/29 GFS...UKMET AND CMC...SO THIS SOLN WAS USED. THESE

MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASING SUN

ANGLE COULD CAUSE MAJOR SHIFT IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

H85 TEMPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES ARE OF

CONCERN AS THEY ARE BETWEEN -3 AND -5C MODERATE PRECIP IS ALSO

POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EVAP COOLING AND

INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW COULD AID IN COLDER TEMPS AND MORE SNOW

THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. SINCE CURRENTLY HAVE MODERATE

CONFIDENCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOW BEING REACHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF

INTERIOR ZONES...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH. NOT SURE WHERE

THE BOUNDARY OF WARMER AIR AND RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE IN THIS COMPLEX

SITUATION...AND THE WATCH MOST DEFINITELY COULD BE EXPANDED LATER

TODAY.

SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAIN

FRI MORNING AND WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN. TEMPS WILL BE

NEAR FREEZING WHERE SNOW FALLS LEADING TO A HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS

IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE DOWNED

POWER LINES AND OUTAGES. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40

MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM FRI. POTENTIAL FOR

WIND ADVSY DOES EXIST...BUT WILL BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT

FORECAST PACKAGES.

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Looking better at Upton.

ALL ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEEPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY

TILTED AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN

EARLY SPRING WINTER STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE

COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW PASSING NEAR

THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK...BUT STILL SOME VERY IMPORTANT DETAILS TO

BE WORKED OUT. THE 00Z NAM IS FASTER AND SUBSEQUENTLY FURTHER EAST

WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. ON

THE FLIP SIDE...THE GFS IS BACK TO BEING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH

THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST

AS A RESULT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WHICH HAS SUPPORT

FROM THE 18Z/29 GFS...UKMET AND CMC...SO THIS SOLN WAS USED. THESE

MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASING SUN

ANGLE COULD CAUSE MAJOR SHIFT IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

H85 TEMPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES ARE OF

CONCERN AS THEY ARE BETWEEN -3 AND -5C MODERATE PRECIP IS ALSO

POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EVAP COOLING AND

INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW COULD AID IN COLDER TEMPS AND MORE SNOW

THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. SINCE CURRENTLY HAVE MODERATE

CONFIDENCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOW BEING REACHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF

INTERIOR ZONES...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH. NOT SURE WHERE

THE BOUNDARY OF WARMER AIR AND RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE IN THIS COMPLEX

SITUATION...AND THE WATCH MOST DEFINITELY COULD BE EXPANDED LATER

TODAY.

SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAIN

FRI MORNING AND WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN. TEMPS WILL BE

NEAR FREEZING WHERE SNOW FALLS LEADING TO A HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS

IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE DOWNED

POWER LINES AND OUTAGES. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40

MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM FRI. POTENTIAL FOR

WIND ADVSY DOES EXIST...BUT WILL BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT

FORECAST PACKAGES.

Old discussion..

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Looking better at Upton.

ALL ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEEPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY

TILTED AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN

EARLY SPRING WINTER STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE

COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW PASSING NEAR

THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK...BUT STILL SOME VERY IMPORTANT DETAILS TO

BE WORKED OUT. THE 00Z NAM IS FASTER AND SUBSEQUENTLY FURTHER EAST

WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. ON

THE FLIP SIDE...THE GFS IS BACK TO BEING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH

THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST

AS A RESULT. THE EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WHICH HAS SUPPORT

FROM THE 18Z/29 GFS...UKMET AND CMC...SO THIS SOLN WAS USED. THESE

MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASING SUN

ANGLE COULD CAUSE MAJOR SHIFT IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

H85 TEMPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES ARE OF

CONCERN AS THEY ARE BETWEEN -3 AND -5C MODERATE PRECIP IS ALSO

POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EVAP COOLING AND

INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW COULD AID IN COLDER TEMPS AND MORE SNOW

THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. SINCE CURRENTLY HAVE MODERATE

CONFIDENCE OF WARNING LEVEL SNOW BEING REACHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF

INTERIOR ZONES...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH. NOT SURE WHERE

THE BOUNDARY OF WARMER AIR AND RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE IN THIS COMPLEX

SITUATION...AND THE WATCH MOST DEFINITELY COULD BE EXPANDED LATER

TODAY.

SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAIN

FRI MORNING AND WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN. TEMPS WILL BE

NEAR FREEZING WHERE SNOW FALLS LEADING TO A HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS

IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE DOWNED

POWER LINES AND OUTAGES. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40

MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM FRI. POTENTIAL FOR

WIND ADVSY DOES EXIST...BUT WILL BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT

FORECAST PACKAGES.

Oddly, though, this text hasn't changed since 5:35 am this morning - not sure what's wrong and have no idea if the Upton folks even know. I can't imagine them not having changed the wording for the short term forecast. See the link...

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=9&glossary=1&highlight=off

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it's going to be a close call, but looks very marginal for the coastal plain and even a bit inland. NW NJ and portions of NW CT and the mid/upper Hudson Valley should do well...anything that falls from 14z on during the day on Friday is going to have to come down like gangbusters to fall as accumulating snow.

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Old discussion..

Oddly, though, this text hasn't changed since 5:35 am this morning - not sure what's wrong and have no idea if the Upton folks even know. I can't imagine them not having changed the wording for the short term forecast. See the link...

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

You're right, they haven't changed it. By now, they usually would have unless they're delaying it. My quote was taken from their AFD at 4:39pm.

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Can a met chime in about the wind potential with this system? 984 is nothing to sneeze at....

1+ of rain for the city

With no high pressure to speak of anywhere, the pressure gradient will not be there for any big winds to write home about..The best winds would be when the storm is strengthening rapidly. 30-35 mph gusts...I suppose 40 mph possibly

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it's going to be a close call, but looks very marginal for the coastal plain and even a bit inland. NW NJ and portions of NW CT and the mid/upper Hudson Valley should do well...anything that falls from 14z on during the day on Friday is going to have to come down like gangbusters to fall as accumulating snow.

JB doesn't think its going to be marginal inland goin for 6 -12 with the shapest cutoff seen in a while 6-12 Northern Middlesex/Union County NJ - and nothing 15 miles south of there....

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/

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The lead system is really producing out in OH and western PA - lots of reports of visibility 1/2 mile or less in snow. This year has had a history of overrunning systems out ahead of the main system overperforming and producing "surprise" snowfall - Jan 26 and Mar 23 stand out as good examples. This lead system should be watched carefully. Although the system will be running into dry air aloft, GOES soundings show the air mass is not as dry forecast by the GFS:

http://www.osdpd.noa...t/html/nyc.html

No model is really catching the extent of moderate to heavy precip. over western and central PA and northern MD right now, though the 18z runs are starting to get the right idea.

NORTHEAST OHIO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

CLE-HOPKINS SNOW 30 29 96 N13 29.96S VSB 1/2 WCI 20

CLE-LAKEFRONT SNOW 31 29 92 N16 29.95S VSB 1/4 WCI 20

CUY CO. ARPT SNOW 32 30 93 N12 29.94S VSB 3/8 WCI 23

LORAIN-ELYRIA SNOW 30 28 92 NE8 29.95S VSB 1/2 WCI 22

ASHTABULA HVY SNOW 31 28 89 N5 29.92S VSB 1/4 WCI 26

WOOSTER SNOW 30 27 86 N12 29.90S VSB 1/2 WCI 21

MANSFIELD SNOW 28 27 96 N10 29.90S VSB 1/2 WCI 19

YOUNGSTOWN HVY SNOW 33 31 92 N5 29.87S VSB 1/4 WCI 29

WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

MEADVILLE SNOW 33 30 88 VRB5 29.89R VSB 1/2

FRANKLIN* CLOUDY 32 30 93 E7 29.90R VSB 1/2

BEAVER COUNTY SNOW 34 34 100 CALM 29.87F VSB 1/2

PITTSBURGH INT LGT SNOW 33 31 92 E9 29.83F VSB

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

BRADFORD CLOUDY 35 24 64 SE9G18 29.85S

DUBOIS HVY SNOW 31 29 92 E10 29.86F VSB 1/4

CLEARFIELD HVY SNOW 32 31 96 E8 29.90F VSB 1/4

JOHNSTOWN SNOW 30 28 92 SE5 29.83F VSB 1/2

ALTOONA SNOW 34 30 86 SE3 29.91F VSB 1/4

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