ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM ends up developing and wrapping cold precip to our area, about .20" worth and hitting parts of SNE and especially NAM very hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Strongly agree-we exceeded forecasts for today by a good 10 degrees-that has to mean something with no fresh cold supply coming in...reminds of the big Jan bust a few years back--it was close to 50 the day before and most places couldnt get cold enough and we know the rest.... Doesn't mean much, it's just the sun angle causing warming because of the dry air. Mid-levels are still cold and that's what counts when the sun goes down. Here is OKX's take: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's just the sun angle, a few hours of clear skies and precip will cool us quickly with Td around 20F. Not with clouds coming in and dewpoints on the rise. Perfect radiational conditions might get us just below freezing but with any precip moving in we'd spike into the mid and upper 30s. We are thermodynamically in an above freezing airmass. Our ONLY shot of accumulating snow is strong dynamic cooling with heavy precipitation. Up here in Putnam County near sea level I might not drop below 38F or so until late late tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Doesn't mean much, it's just the sun angle causing warming because of the dry air. Mid-levels are still cold and that's what counts when the sun goes down. Here is OKX's take: good luck, but I aint buying it-I think rain for alot more folks that currently being thought... and this will add to our recent trend of late season el bustos... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 good luck, but I aint buying it-I think rain for alot more folks that currently being thought... and this will add to our recent trend of late season el bustos... I think this is a somewhat aggressive forecast but I was thinking 2-4" here as well, so not too much deviation from OKX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Doesn't mean much, it's just the sun angle causing warming because of the dry air. Mid-levels are still cold and that's what counts when the sun goes down. Here is OKX's take: They busted high last time and will likely again, partly because they assume most terrain north of southern westchester is at or above 500ft. They are also relying heavily on the Euro. I think they are taking a middle road right now because of a high QPF storm and marginal temps, which is reasonable. But I expect their maps to change around a lot today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 good luck, but I aint buying it-I think rain for alot more folks that currently being thought... and this will add to our recent trend of late season el bustos... Which bustos? A mid February storm dumps much more snow than anyone expected over the entire area. The pattern was not conducive for any other events until March 25th, when many saw that storm OVER perform. Not sure what you mean...mind explaining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 imagine the weenie suicides at the SNE forum if that verifies.... dont get amped for a low probability snow storm on April 1, that's the lesson there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 They busted high last time and will likely again, partly because they assume most terrain north of southern westchester is at or above 500ft. They are also relying heavily on the Euro. I think they are taking a middle road right now because of a high QPF storm and marginal temps, which is reasonable. But I expect their maps to change around a lot today and tomorrow. They busted low in NE NJ/ LI and high in Westchester in the 3/24 storm. They have every reason to hug the Euro, it's the best model and killed the GFS on the last storm. Remember how it tracked the low off NJ on 3/24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 models were way to amped last week, keep that in mind when dismissing the nam/ukmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM ends up developing and wrapping cold precip to our area, about .20" worth and hitting parts of SNE and especially NAM very hard. Don't care what the QPF says. I'm much more interested in the .2 that falls Thurs night-Fri than the .4 before that. Could be much more than .2 in reality, and more likely to be accumulating snow. Pretty good mid-level track on the NAM. Cold pool aloft and we're just on the western edge of the deepening 700mb and 850mb lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The NAM has been for a lack of a better phrase, "below par" in the last few weeks with QPF placement. It's still in my eyes, "overdeveloping" the first wave which is causing all sorts of down stream effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Which bustos? A mid February storm dumps much more snow than anyone expected over the entire area. The pattern was not conducive for any other events until March 25th, when many saw that storm OVER perform. Not sure what you mean...mind explaining? the 3/25 storm overperformed for a portion of NJ-most areas saw much less than forecast..also a few busts last march in the 1st half of the month last winter if you remember...just seems like we've been striking out in the last portion of winter of late... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 the 3/25 storm overperformed for a portion of NJ-most areas saw much less than forecast..also a few busts last march in the 1st half of the month last winter if you remember...just seems like we've been striking out in the last portion of winter of late... March has been rough for the past few years. If the likes of Piers Corbyn and Bastardi are right, they will start becoming MUCH more interesting over the next decade. But that's for another thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 They busted low in NE NJ/ LI and high in Westchester in the 3/24 storm. They have every reason to hug the Euro, it's the best model and killed the GFS on the last storm. Remember how it tracked the low off NJ on 3/24? At second thought, I think they had it just about right for 3/24. A bit low in LI and a few lucky spots in NENJ, and a bit high in the hudson valley (and east into CT). The higher totals might have been in Mt. Holly's area. I have no problem weighting a forecast toward the Euro, I would too. But this isn't going to play out exactly like the 12z run. If I were forecasting I'd go with a stronger elevation gradient and wait until surface obs supported more widespread snowfall to upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 18z NAM is miles away from any of the globals.....focuses on the first bit of energy instead of the second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Any chance elevation on Long Island plays a role? Looks like that Upton snowfall map tracks the higher hills on the north shore of nassau, western suffolk. I think at the green line elevation is generally 150+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Any chance elevation on Long Island plays a role? Looks like that Upton snowfall map tracks the higher hills on the north shore of nassau, western suffolk. I think at the green line elevation is generally 150+... Every foot matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 HRRR has really interesting snow totals for C NJ tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I've never heard the term "cold pool aloft" used so often in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 WOW FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 HRRR has really interesting snow totals for C NJ tonight. If that verifies....egg on the face of everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On the subject of temperatures: HPN at about 400ft got down to 29F the past two nights, with clear skies and briefly calm winds. Despite a little wind, the conditions for nighttime cooling have been pretty good. That's not very impressive cold. Yes daytime highs are relatively warm because of clear, dry air and plenty of solar heating. But that solar heating also warms the earth, which moderates our "polar" airmass significantly. This airmass has been moderating for days without a reinforcing shot and we now have slight WAA advection, or at least moisture advection, which has a similar effect. Air in the boundary layer is simply not cold enough to support accumulating snow. We have to drag it down from above, which is very possible with steepening lapse rates. 500mb heights might drop to near 528dm early Friday, which is pretty good even in mid-winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 18z NAM text soundings actually show surface dropping to 37.0, as precip enters tonight, and going as low as 32.8. This is for LGA. Precip is .50"-.75" 37.0 35.9 36.2 35.2 34.3 32.8 Crazy but highly unlikely, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I've never heard the term "cold pool aloft" used so often in my life. Sorry. If find it most relevent for orographic lake effect snow in Utah and for spring snow at low elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I here it used most during Thunderstorm season when forecasting hail for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The HRRR can't be taken too seriously. It has heavy precip. over western NC/SW VA right now, while the radar has nothing there right now. The band of precip. it shows over the NYC area by late tonight comes from the precip. over western NC/SW VA. The regular RR (Rapid Refresh) seems to have a better handle. It also has some precip. over western NC/SW VA that is not there, but not nearly as much. It brings light precip. into the area by around 7-8z tonight, and it falls mostly as rain. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RR/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=rr:&runTime=2011033019&plotName=ptyp_q2sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=19&model=rr&ptitle=RR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=18&resizePlot=1&domain=q2&wjet=1 HRRR has really interesting snow totals for C NJ tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Glad to see the nam showing some hints finally, it took forever ..The low looks well east of the gfs, and hr 42 looks like there's some potential. thinking the gfs is the only model showing all rain for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 ECM means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 ECM means Would work out well. Probably at least a little snow for most. Surface temps would dictate accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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