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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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Strongly agree-we exceeded forecasts for today by a good 10 degrees-that has to mean something with no fresh cold supply coming in...reminds of the big Jan bust a few years back--it was close to 50 the day before and most places couldnt get cold enough and we know the rest....

Doesn't mean much, it's just the sun angle causing warming because of the dry air. Mid-levels are still cold and that's what counts when the sun goes down.

Here is OKX's take:

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It's just the sun angle, a few hours of clear skies and precip will cool us quickly with Td around 20F.

Not with clouds coming in and dewpoints on the rise. Perfect radiational conditions might get us just below freezing but with any precip moving in we'd spike into the mid and upper 30s. We are thermodynamically in an above freezing airmass. Our ONLY shot of accumulating snow is strong dynamic cooling with heavy precipitation. Up here in Putnam County near sea level I might not drop below 38F or so until late late tomorrow night.

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Doesn't mean much, it's just the sun angle causing warming because of the dry air. Mid-levels are still cold and that's what counts when the sun goes down.

Here is OKX's take:

good luck, but I aint buying it-I think rain for alot more folks that currently being thought... and this will add to our recent trend of late season el bustos...

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Doesn't mean much, it's just the sun angle causing warming because of the dry air. Mid-levels are still cold and that's what counts when the sun goes down.

Here is OKX's take:

They busted high last time and will likely again, partly because they assume most terrain north of southern westchester is at or above 500ft. They are also relying heavily on the Euro. I think they are taking a middle road right now because of a high QPF storm and marginal temps, which is reasonable. But I expect their maps to change around a lot today and tomorrow.

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good luck, but I aint buying it-I think rain for alot more folks that currently being thought... and this will add to our recent trend of late season el bustos...

:huh:

Which bustos? A mid February storm dumps much more snow than anyone expected over the entire area. The pattern was not conducive for any other events until March 25th, when many saw that storm OVER perform. Not sure what you mean...mind explaining?

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They busted high last time and will likely again, partly because they assume most terrain north of southern westchester is at or above 500ft. They are also relying heavily on the Euro. I think they are taking a middle road right now because of a high QPF storm and marginal temps, which is reasonable. But I expect their maps to change around a lot today and tomorrow.

They busted low in NE NJ/ LI and high in Westchester in the 3/24 storm.

They have every reason to hug the Euro, it's the best model and killed the GFS on the last storm. Remember how it tracked the low off NJ on 3/24? gun_bandana.gif

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NAM ends up developing and wrapping cold precip to our area, about .20" worth and hitting parts of SNE and especially NAM very hard.

Don't care what the QPF says. I'm much more interested in the .2 that falls Thurs night-Fri than the .4 before that. Could be much more than .2 in reality, and more likely to be accumulating snow. Pretty good mid-level track on the NAM. Cold pool aloft and we're just on the western edge of the deepening 700mb and 850mb lows.

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:huh:

Which bustos? A mid February storm dumps much more snow than anyone expected over the entire area. The pattern was not conducive for any other events until March 25th, when many saw that storm OVER perform. Not sure what you mean...mind explaining?

the 3/25 storm overperformed for a portion of NJ-most areas saw much less than forecast..also a few busts last march in the 1st half of the month last winter if you remember...just seems like we've been striking out in the last portion of winter of late...

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the 3/25 storm overperformed for a portion of NJ-most areas saw much less than forecast..also a few busts last march in the 1st half of the month last winter if you remember...just seems like we've been striking out in the last portion of winter of late...

March has been rough for the past few years. If the likes of Piers Corbyn and Bastardi are right, they will start becoming MUCH more interesting over the next decade. But that's for another thread...

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They busted low in NE NJ/ LI and high in Westchester in the 3/24 storm.

They have every reason to hug the Euro, it's the best model and killed the GFS on the last storm. Remember how it tracked the low off NJ on 3/24? gun_bandana.gif

At second thought, I think they had it just about right for 3/24. A bit low in LI and a few lucky spots in NENJ, and a bit high in the hudson valley (and east into CT). The higher totals might have been in Mt. Holly's area.

I have no problem weighting a forecast toward the Euro, I would too. But this isn't going to play out exactly like the 12z run. If I were forecasting I'd go with a stronger elevation gradient and wait until surface obs supported more widespread snowfall to upgrade.

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Any chance elevation on Long Island plays a role? Looks like that Upton snowfall map tracks the higher hills on the north shore of nassau, western suffolk. I think at the green line elevation is generally 150+...

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On the subject of temperatures:

HPN at about 400ft got down to 29F the past two nights, with clear skies and briefly calm winds. Despite a little wind, the conditions for nighttime cooling have been pretty good. That's not very impressive cold.

Yes daytime highs are relatively warm because of clear, dry air and plenty of solar heating. But that solar heating also warms the earth, which moderates our "polar" airmass significantly. This airmass has been moderating for days without a reinforcing shot and we now have slight WAA advection, or at least moisture advection, which has a similar effect. Air in the boundary layer is simply not cold enough to support accumulating snow. We have to drag it down from above, which is very possible with steepening lapse rates. 500mb heights might drop to near 528dm early Friday, which is pretty good even in mid-winter.

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The HRRR can't be taken too seriously. It has heavy precip. over western NC/SW VA right now, while the radar has nothing there right now. The band of precip. it shows over the NYC area by late tonight comes from the precip. over western NC/SW VA.

The regular RR (Rapid Refresh) seems to have a better handle. It also has some precip. over western NC/SW VA that is not there, but not nearly as much. It brings light precip. into the area by around 7-8z tonight, and it falls mostly as rain.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RR/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=rr:&runTime=2011033019&plotName=ptyp_q2sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=19&model=rr&ptitle=RR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=18&resizePlot=1&domain=q2&wjet=1

HRRR has really interesting snow totals for C NJ tonight.

195901_212657848750534_203465999669719_947374_8347778_n.jpg

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