ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 what would you guys say for BLM? Mostly rain on euro. .78" of rain. Maybe ending as some wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I have to agree.. Enough with all the cold weather/snow... It was a great winter.. In fact, one of the best.. Would it have been better if we all got 4-8"+ from this potential event... Ya, it would have been cool i guess.. But you know what... with 65-75 degrees, sunny skies and "spring up" on the horizon - it is time to put the winter of 10-11 to bed.. It surely won't be forgotten- ever!!! I will surely miss Earthlight's "Mother Of God" Posts.... December will be here before we know it! Severe/Heat/Hurricane season is on deck!! Jeff Enough with winter and snow already. I am ready for 70 degree weather and severe thunderstorm season to come now. This has been a really winter but I would like it finally end already now after this storm. I don't want even hear the word snow in the forecast after this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 lol no wonder Ray is arguing with DT over Boston-- DT has Boston under " no snow" (all the way up to Cape Ann.) I see DT took out his reference to 4/97 and HECS also. I guess this was from before the 12z runs came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 lol no wonder Ray is arguing with DT over Boston-- DT has Boston under " no snow" I see DT took out his reference to 4/97 and HECS also. He's making a big mistake on the BOS North Coast if you ask me...those areas usually do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 He's making a big mistake on the BOS North Coast if you ask me...those areas usually do well. Im thinking he made that before the 12z runs came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Im thinking he made that before the 12z runs came out. It says it was issued at 2:25 though... Unusual for DT, he hugged the GFS in the last storm going 6-12 for NH and near nothing for NYC suburbs, and it burned him. Now he seems to be hugging the GFS though he's historically an ardent Euro believer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7below Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Just catching up with this threat, but looks like Long Island is missing all the fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 E unless your on top of mt.zucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Enough with winter and snow already. I am ready for 70 degree weather and severe thunderstorm season to come now. This has been a really winter but I would like it finally end already now after this storm. I don't want even hear the word snow in the forecast after this event. Thanks for your thorough analysis on the upcoming storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 E unless your on top of mt.zucker E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It says it was issued at 2:25 though... I dont know how long it takes for him to make a map lol-- but that could have easily been before he had a chance to see the EURO. He might have been giving the 0z GFS more weight and thinking it was going to trend to the west. I don't think the 12z EURO completed until right around 2:20 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I dont know how long it takes for him to make a map lol-- but that could have easily been before the Euro came out. He might have been giving the 0z GFS more weight and thinking it was going to trend to the west. I don't think the 12z EURO completed until right around 2:20 or so. Yeah that's why I am not sure, trying to get the answer in Facebook chat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 DT has the potential to be very wrong with that map...very Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah that's why I am not sure, trying to get the answer in Facebook chat. He doesnt have accu text soundings for euro. Tough to guess anything without them, in borderline areas. Boston is for sure at least 80% snow on 12z euro. If not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 One difference between this Euro run and the last few is that the 3rd shortwave is less separate and phases in much more quickly. This has to do with the northern stream digging a bit more. The impact of this is that the system comes together a bit more quickly. The 850 mb temp. pattern shows more of a classic S shape near and off the mid-Atlantic coast by Fri morning than on prior runs. Yeah we're close to a monster storm...the vort really explodes from 48 to 54 hours, just need that a little earlier and the track to be a hair east. Euro shows a fairly cold temperature profile given the track of this storm and time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Thanks for your thorough analysis on the upcoming storm I stopped reading after he wrote "This has been a really winter...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 One difference between this Euro run and the last few is that the 3rd shortwave is less separate and phases in much more quickly. This has to do with the northern stream digging a bit more. The impact of this is that the system comes together a bit more quickly. The 850 mb temp. pattern shows more of a classic S shape near and off the mid-Atlantic coast by Fri morning than on prior runs. So that's a good change then-- we need for it to get stronger quicker-- 50 miles will make all the difference. This needs to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 regarding DTs map: area C squeezes up into CT. i get wat hes trying to show. coastal CT wont do well but northern faifield county should do ok. once you get past exit 7/8 on 684 its like a another climate. need Quincy to chime in with his knowledge on Danburys local climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So that's a good change then-- we need for it to get stronger quicker-- 50 miles will make all the difference. This needs to continue. 12z euro was not more then 50 miles shift SE to make more of us very happy. UKIE is the funniest. Very weak, disorganized mess at 12z and well east. Barely scrapes us now. Worse then NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12z euro was not more then 50 miles shift SE to make more of us very happy. UKIE is the funniest. Very weak, disorganized mess at 12z and well east. Barely scrapes us now. Worse then NAM. That was actually a pretty surprising result but I think that UK run actually indicated that the trend was going to be east. What a weird model history this storm has had-- second only to 12/26/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Enough with winter and snow already. I am ready for 70 degree weather and severe thunderstorm season to come now. This has been a really winter but I would like it finally end already now after this storm. I don't want even hear the word snow in the forecast after this event. "dont cry, dry yo eye....and heres come yo mother wit those two little guys............" seriously man...get a grip. this isnt a cry cuz its not a warm spring thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 wow....I was very wrong about the 12z GFS ensembles possibly being skewed. Most of them are locked in and look similar to the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Precip down south in DC metro and VA not nearly as expansive as modeled with first wave, take that for what its worth wrt the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Reports of RN/SN and RN/IP mix around DC as well with temps around 50F. Pretty strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Precip down south in DC metro and VA not nearly as expansive as modeled with first wave, take that for what its worth wrt the second wave. good obs man and you added value to the thread for a change. good job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 good obs man and you added value to the thread for a change. good job! I do what I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Reports of RN/SN and RN/IP mix around DC as well with temps around 50F. Pretty strange. DP must be in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 DP must be in the single digits. 850s are cold surface just too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I do what I can. hahaha...nice, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 DP must be in the single digits. DCA has a Td of -2C, further NW in Frederick, MD it is -4C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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