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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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I have to agree.. Enough with all the cold weather/snow... It was a great winter.. In fact, one of the best.. Would it have been better if we all got 4-8"+ from this potential event... Ya, it would have been cool i guess.. But you know what... with 65-75 degrees, sunny skies and "spring up" on the horizon - it is time to put the winter of 10-11 to bed.. It surely won't be forgotten- ever!!! I will surely miss Earthlight's "Mother Of God" Posts.... December will be here before we know it!

Severe/Heat/Hurricane season is on deck!!

Jeff

Enough with winter and snow already. I am ready for 70 degree weather and severe thunderstorm season to come now. This has been a really winter but I would like it finally end already now after this storm. I don't want even hear the word snow in the forecast after this event.

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lol no wonder Ray is arguing with DT over Boston-- DT has Boston under " no snow" (all the way up to Cape Ann.) I see DT took out his reference to 4/97 and HECS also. I guess this was from before the 12z runs came out.

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Enough with winter and snow already. I am ready for 70 degree weather and severe thunderstorm season to come now. This has been a really winter but I would like it finally end already now after this storm. I don't want even hear the word snow in the forecast after this event.

Thanks for your thorough analysis on the upcoming storm :thumbsup:

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It says it was issued at 2:25 though...

I dont know how long it takes for him to make a map lol-- but that could have easily been before he had a chance to see the EURO. He might have been giving the 0z GFS more weight and thinking it was going to trend to the west. I don't think the 12z EURO completed until right around 2:20 or so.

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I dont know how long it takes for him to make a map lol-- but that could have easily been before the Euro came out. He might have been giving the 0z GFS more weight and thinking it was going to trend to the west. I don't think the 12z EURO completed until right around 2:20 or so.

Yeah that's why I am not sure, trying to get the answer in Facebook chat.

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Yeah that's why I am not sure, trying to get the answer in Facebook chat.

He doesnt have accu text soundings for euro. Tough to guess anything without them, in borderline areas.

Boston is for sure at least 80% snow on 12z euro. If not more.

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One difference between this Euro run and the last few is that the 3rd shortwave is less separate and phases in much more quickly. This has to do with the northern stream digging a bit more. The impact of this is that the system comes together a bit more quickly. The 850 mb temp. pattern shows more of a classic S shape near and off the mid-Atlantic coast by Fri morning than on prior runs.

anim_2814c180-9295-5b64-5d35-757102232de8.gif

Yeah we're close to a monster storm...the vort really explodes from 48 to 54 hours, just need that a little earlier and the track to be a hair east. Euro shows a fairly cold temperature profile given the track of this storm and time of year.

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One difference between this Euro run and the last few is that the 3rd shortwave is less separate and phases in much more quickly. This has to do with the northern stream digging a bit more. The impact of this is that the system comes together a bit more quickly. The 850 mb temp. pattern shows more of a classic S shape near and off the mid-Atlantic coast by Fri morning than on prior runs.

anim_2814c180-9295-5b64-5d35-757102232de8.gif

So that's a good change then-- we need for it to get stronger quicker-- 50 miles will make all the difference. This needs to continue.

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So that's a good change then-- we need for it to get stronger quicker-- 50 miles will make all the difference. This needs to continue.

12z euro was not more then 50 miles shift SE to make more of us very happy.

UKIE is the funniest. Very weak, disorganized mess at 12z and well east. Barely scrapes us now. Worse then NAM.

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12z euro was not more then 50 miles shift SE to make more of us very happy.

UKIE is the funniest. Very weak, disorganized mess at 12z and well east. Barely scrapes us now. Worse then NAM.

That was actually a pretty surprising result but I think that UK run actually indicated that the trend was going to be east. What a weird model history this storm has had-- second only to 12/26/2010

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Enough with winter and snow already. I am ready for 70 degree weather and severe thunderstorm season to come now. This has been a really winter but I would like it finally end already now after this storm. I don't want even hear the word snow in the forecast after this event.

"dont cry, dry yo eye....and heres come yo mother wit those two little guys............"

seriously man...get a grip. this isnt a cry cuz its not a warm spring thread.

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