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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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If you're west of Newarks longitude and north of New Brunswicks Latitude on the Euro, you get at least a few hours of moderate to heavy snow..on this 12z run. The cooling occurs a good bit faster than the 00z run as the dynamics develop a bit faster as well.

Why did you have to make the cutoff New Brunswick? :(

Though yeah, I agree. This run isn't too bad for Central and Northern NJ.

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I think we might get a couple of inches on this run. You agree?

absolutely, definately a good sign to see the euro colder than the gfs (like the last storm)...I wish the nam would just stop being weird now that we are inside 50 hrs so we have a good short range model for us to use..w/o a doubt rain to start, but how deep the low gets,precip intensity and track will determine if the second half of the storm will be snow.

there is snow involved, hence the models being inconsistent lol, if its rain, they nail it down 8 days out

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To me, it looks like Eastern Sections of Northern NJ get at least 2-4 inches, central sections of Northern NJ get 4-8 inches and NW NJ gets 6-12 with some locations in the hills of NW NJ maybe 12-18.

How far N&W of NYC do you have to be to expect some accumulating snow given the current model runs? Or is it going to be one of those decently N&W plus elevation scenarios?

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No heat island? Meh, at least we're 50 miles away from a warning event for everyone lol.

Yeah we're close to a monster storm...the vort really explodes from 48 to 54 hours, just need that a little earlier and the track to be a hair east. Euro shows a fairly cold temperature profile given the track of this storm and time of year.

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Its not a north to south thing on euro really.

For instance:

CDW (Caldwell Airport in Jersey) receives more snow then HPN (White Plains, NY).

CDW is close to .75" of qpf as snow.

HPN is .50"-.60" of qpf as snow

Yeah the 850 line runs NE to SW.

I am SW of HPN but could see as much or more snow because I'm further from the bombing low.

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For those of you in northern Sussex County

Sussex, NJ 1.53 total qpf with 850's below 0 the entire time.

Cool - I am in Hardyston so it sounds like we could get 10 inches or so (low ratios & melting). I remember I was in Vernon NJ during the April fool's day storm of 1997 and we had about 2 feet. i think Highpoint NJ measured 26 inches for that storm.

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Cool - I am in Hardyston so it sounds like we could get 10 inches or so (low ratios & melting). I remember I was in Vernon NJ during the April fool's day storm of 1997 and we had about 2 feet. i think Highpoint NJ measured 26 inches for that storm.

Good thing for your area is that it will be snowing over night Thursday and by the time sun comes up on Friday, you will have a snow blanket to help battle the sun angle and surface temps.

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do me. west of newark.

EWR:

.41" of precip after 850's are cold enough and thicknesses are below 540. Surface 34-36.

There is .71" of qpf before this as well. About .20" of that might be frozen, but Im not 100%, so .41" is a conservative approach.

Again, same as HPN and NYC, by the time it gets cold enough, its 7am Friday morning - 7pm Friday night.

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