Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If you're west of Newarks longitude and north of New Brunswicks Latitude on the Euro, you get at least a few hours of moderate to heavy snow..on this 12z run. The cooling occurs a good bit faster than the 00z run as the dynamics develop a bit faster as well. Why did you have to make the cutoff New Brunswick? Though yeah, I agree. This run isn't too bad for Central and Northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 1.35 QPF at Morristown. Probably at least .80 of that is snow based on 850's sorry for the IMBY post but its the Euro so its not like I can just look it up myself, how does it look for KMMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 1.35 QPF at Morristown. Probably 75% of that is snow based on 850's thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This is a case where I might get more than NYC because I am away from the urban heat island. Disagree, you're too far east. I think Central Park will do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 How far N&W of NYC do you have to be to expect some accumulating snow given the current model runs? Or is it going to be one of those decently N&W plus elevation scenarios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Disagree, you're too far east. I think Central Park will do better. No heat island? Meh, at least we're 50 miles away from a warning event for everyone lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I think we might get a couple of inches on this run. You agree? absolutely, definately a good sign to see the euro colder than the gfs (like the last storm)...I wish the nam would just stop being weird now that we are inside 50 hrs so we have a good short range model for us to use..w/o a doubt rain to start, but how deep the low gets,precip intensity and track will determine if the second half of the storm will be snow. there is snow involved, hence the models being inconsistent lol, if its rain, they nail it down 8 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 For those of you in northern Sussex County Sussex, NJ 1.53 total qpf with 850's below 0 the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 To me, it looks like Eastern Sections of Northern NJ get at least 2-4 inches, central sections of Northern NJ get 4-8 inches and NW NJ gets 6-12 with some locations in the hills of NW NJ maybe 12-18. How far N&W of NYC do you have to be to expect some accumulating snow given the current model runs? Or is it going to be one of those decently N&W plus elevation scenarios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 No heat island? Meh, at least we're 50 miles away from a warning event for everyone lol. Yeah we're close to a monster storm...the vort really explodes from 48 to 54 hours, just need that a little earlier and the track to be a hair east. Euro shows a fairly cold temperature profile given the track of this storm and time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 To me, it looks like Eastern Sections of Northern NJ get at least 2-4 inches, central sections of Northern NJ get 4-8 inches and NW NJ gets 6-12 with some locations in the hills of NW NJ maybe 12-18. How much do you think Westchester gets? 4-8 south to north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 For those of you in the Poconos. Mt. Pocono total qpf 1.37 with 850's below 0 the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 How much do you think Westchester gets? 4-8 south to north? Analyzing HPN text soundigns and skew-ts, I would guess that .50"-.60" is snow on euro and about .65" as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Give me an airport code. How much do you think Westchester gets? 4-8 south to north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
historynerd Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Give me an airport code. KPOU? Please? The "upstate" threads are quiet. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Its not a north to south thing on euro really. For instance: CDW (Caldwell Airport in Jersey) receives more snow then HPN (White Plains, NY). CDW is close to .75" of qpf as snow. HPN is .50"-.60" of qpf as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Its not a north to south thing on euro really. For instance: CDW (Caldwell Airport in Jersey) receives more snow then HPN (White Plains, NY). CDW is close to .75" of qpf as snow. HPN is .50"-.60" of qpf as snow Yeah the 850 line runs NE to SW. I am SW of HPN but could see as much or more snow because I'm further from the bombing low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 KPOU total qpf 1.53 850's below 0 the entire time. KPOU? Please? The "upstate" threads are quiet. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
historynerd Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 KPOU total qpf 1.53 850's below 0 the entire time. Woah....thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 KPOU? Please? The "upstate" threads are quiet. :-/ 1.53" precip. 850's are below the entire time and surface is 33-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 These might be the best resources to figure out where it may or may not snow... It is going to be next to impossible to predict the transition zone. It'll have to be nowcasted 1) Winter Precipitation Criteria 2) Critical Thicknesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
historynerd Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 1.53" precip. 850's are below the entire time and surface is 33-35. Thank you, as well...looking good for at least 8'' I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest NJ Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 For those of you in northern Sussex County Sussex, NJ 1.53 total qpf with 850's below 0 the entire time. Cool - I am in Hardyston so it sounds like we could get 10 inches or so (low ratios & melting). I remember I was in Vernon NJ during the April fool's day storm of 1997 and we had about 2 feet. i think Highpoint NJ measured 26 inches for that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Cool - I am in Hardyston so it sounds like we could get 10 inches or so (low ratios & melting). I remember I was in Vernon NJ during the April fool's day storm of 1997 and we had about 2 feet. i think Highpoint NJ measured 26 inches for that storm. Good thing for your area is that it will be snowing over night Thursday and by the time sun comes up on Friday, you will have a snow blanket to help battle the sun angle and surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 1.53" precip. 850's are below the entire time and surface is 33-35. do me. west of newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 do me. Spring fever in this thread today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 do me. west of newark. EWR: .41" of precip after 850's are cold enough and thicknesses are below 540. Surface 34-36. There is .71" of qpf before this as well. About .20" of that might be frozen, but Im not 100%, so .41" is a conservative approach. Again, same as HPN and NYC, by the time it gets cold enough, its 7am Friday morning - 7pm Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 what would you guys say for BLM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Snow through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 DT 4/1: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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