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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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Ha, let me know if it says more than the 1-3" the last EURO run had for me down here :P

It's probably too warm for you, the 0C line is aligned on a NE to SW gradient....longitude matters a lot! I really like that frame at 48, we're probably getting crushed with the low bombing into the 980s south of LI and 850s of -1C.

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Question: I just skimmed the last few pages and it looks like there's a developing consensus on the storm developing too late to achieve the dynamic cooling needed for major snows in the I-95 corridor and even close by inland suburbs. If that's the case, though, just curious why NWS-OKX would have relatively recently (12:24 pm) reissued its winter storm watch for the threat of 5-10" of snow for NE NJ, from western Union to Western Bergen Counties, across the Hudson Valley and interior CT. Any thoughts on that? Anyone from OKX who posts here? Just seems they would've had much of the same info as here and might've discontinued the watches...

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A little bit too warm for us, a tick too warm at H850.

But, I have a feeling that tonight will be the comeback of the season (aside from 12/26). :weight_lift:

Nothing could ever surpass that IMO, March 2001 was the exact opposite though. It wasn't so much that the models all shifted at the last minute, it was more so because the storm was epic as well.

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It's probably too warm for you, the 0C line is aligned on a NE to SW gradient....longitude matters a lot! I really like that frame at 48, we're probably getting crushed with the low bombing into the 980s south of LI and 850s of -1C.

So unchanged from the last EURO run for here.

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Nothing could ever surpass that IMO, March 2001 was the exact opposite though. It wasn't so much that the models all shifted at the last minute, it was more so because the storm was epic as well.

Epic maybe-- but I doubt it could have surpassed Jan 1996 or PD2 for us (I got 28" in that storm)..... I forgot about March 2001 as soon as winter 2002-03 came to fruition.... and godawful 2001-02 for that matter!

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At 42 hours, the 850 0 line is in E PA and just misses grazing NW Jersey, and the +4 line hits Atlantic City, and runs ENE of that. That's why I said perhaps like +2 at 850 for C NJ. <br><br>At 48 hours, there is .25 to .5 of precip for everyone (perhaps closer to .5?), and a .5 to .75 "dot" in Hunterdon and Western Someret County. The 850 0 line is just east of NYC...and bisects Queens. It runs SW through Central Monmouth County, extreme Western Ocean County, and the line continues in that general direction for the entire state of NJ.<br><br>Central and Northern NJ probably get a couple of inches on this run.

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Euro soundings:

Through hour 42, NYC and HPN are rain. With .25" of rain.

By hour 48, an additional .55" of precip has fallen and 850's are -.5 for NYC and -1.2 for HPN

Most of this is rain, my guess.

Wow this is just so close for here, especially being west of HPN. Longitude really helps with the track trying to split SNE. Looks like rain-->heavy snow but could be a tick too warm at the surface in April.

I don't know why people are giving up though, the 12z ECM is like a moderate snowstorm for NYC suburbs and 50 miles from being a major hit for everyone. Major shift east on the 12z globals.

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Euro soundings:

Through hour 42, NYC and HPN are rain. With .25" of rain.

By hour 48, an additional .55" of precip has fallen and 850's are -.5 for NYC and -1.2 for HPN

Most of this is rain, my guess.

Hours 48-54, .26" of precip falls and by hour 54 850's are -4 to -5 for LGA and HPN. Thicknesses are 535.

This is probably snow, but its falling 7am - 2pm, in the middle of the day, so no way it accumutates.

An additional .11" falls through hour 60. 850's plenty cold and surface 35. Again this is in the middle of the day.

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Euro soundings:

Through hour 42, NYC and HPN are rain. With .25" of rain.

By hour 48, an additional .55" of precip has fallen and 850's are -.5 for NYC and -1.2 for HPN

Most of this is rain, my guess.

Hours 48-54, .26" of precip falls and by hour 54 850's are -4 to -5 for LGA and HPN. Thicknesses are 535.

This is probably snow, but its falling 7am - 2pm, in the middle of the day, so no way it accumutates.

An additional .11" falls through hour 60. 850's plenty cold and surface 35. Again this is in the middle of the day.

Sounds good...snow will accumulate up here during the day with -5C 850s. Half the storm is heavy snow here, not bad...988mb south of LI.

Onto the 0zs...

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At 42 hours, the 850 0 line is in E PA and just misses grazing NW Jersey, and the +4 line hits Atlantic City, and runs ENE of that. That's why I said perhaps like +2 at 850 for C NJ. At 48 hours, there is .25 to .5 of precip for everyone (perhaps closer to .5?), and a .5 to .75 "dot" in Hunterdon and Western Someret County. The 850 0 line is just east of NYC...and bisects Queens. It runs SW through Central Monmouth County, extreme Western Ocean County, and the line continues in that general direction for the entire state of NJ. Central and Northern NJ probably get a couple of inches on this run.

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At hour 54, the .25 line essentially runs from New Brunswick, Somerset County, Hunterdon County and north. NYC gets grazed by the .25 line, as well. 850s are well off-shore. However, the sun angle increases at that time, so I'm not sure how significant that really is.

What time of day are we talking about for this hypothetical changeover to occur lol.

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Euro soundings:

Through hour 42, NYC and HPN are rain. With .25" of rain.

By hour 48, an additional .55" of precip has fallen and 850's are -.5 for NYC and -1.2 for HPN

Most of this is rain, my guess.

Hours 48-54, .26" of precip falls and by hour 54 850's are -4 to -5 for LGA and HPN. Thicknesses are 535.

This is probably snow, but its falling 7am - 2pm, in the middle of the day, so no way it accumutates.

An additional .11" falls through hour 60. 850's plenty cold and surface 35. Again this is in the middle of the day.

This is a case where I might get more than NYC because I am away from the urban heat island.

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