Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The Euro actually looks very similar to yesterday's 12z run in terms of location of precipitation it is just a little warmer and cuts back on the precip a little. Still has northern NJ as 1.25+ qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Westchester looks to get crushed Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ha, let me know if it says more than the 1-3" the last EURO run had for me down here It's probably too warm for you, the 0C line is aligned on a NE to SW gradient....longitude matters a lot! I really like that frame at 48, we're probably getting crushed with the low bombing into the 980s south of LI and 850s of -1C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm sure you'd find some interesting dialogue in the New England or Upstate NY/Penn sub forums. Why should he though.. Isnt Westchester in the NYC metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Question: I just skimmed the last few pages and it looks like there's a developing consensus on the storm developing too late to achieve the dynamic cooling needed for major snows in the I-95 corridor and even close by inland suburbs. If that's the case, though, just curious why NWS-OKX would have relatively recently (12:24 pm) reissued its winter storm watch for the threat of 5-10" of snow for NE NJ, from western Union to Western Bergen Counties, across the Hudson Valley and interior CT. Any thoughts on that? Anyone from OKX who posts here? Just seems they would've had much of the same info as here and might've discontinued the watches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 A little bit too warm for us, a tick too warm at H850. But, I have a feeling that tonight will be the comeback of the season (aside from 12/26). Nothing could ever surpass that IMO, March 2001 was the exact opposite though. It wasn't so much that the models all shifted at the last minute, it was more so because the storm was epic as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's probably too warm for you, the 0C line is aligned on a NE to SW gradient....longitude matters a lot! I really like that frame at 48, we're probably getting crushed with the low bombing into the 980s south of LI and 850s of -1C. So unchanged from the last EURO run for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro soundings: Through hour 42, NYC and HPN are rain. With .25" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Nothing could ever surpass that IMO, March 2001 was the exact opposite though. It wasn't so much that the models all shifted at the last minute, it was more so because the storm was epic as well. Epic maybe-- but I doubt it could have surpassed Jan 1996 or PD2 for us (I got 28" in that storm)..... I forgot about March 2001 as soon as winter 2002-03 came to fruition.... and godawful 2001-02 for that matter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 At 42 hours, the 850 0 line is in E PA and just misses grazing NW Jersey, and the +4 line hits Atlantic City, and runs ENE of that. That's why I said perhaps like +2 at 850 for C NJ. <br><br>At 48 hours, there is .25 to .5 of precip for everyone (perhaps closer to .5?), and a .5 to .75 "dot" in Hunterdon and Western Someret County. The 850 0 line is just east of NYC...and bisects Queens. It runs SW through Central Monmouth County, extreme Western Ocean County, and the line continues in that general direction for the entire state of NJ.<br><br>Central and Northern NJ probably get a couple of inches on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro soundings: Through hour 42, NYC and HPN are rain. With .25" of rain. By hour 48, an additional .55" of precip has fallen and 850's are -.5 for NYC and -1.2 for HPN Most of this is rain, my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 thank you..man you have been great on this board this winter..can't wait for next November when we can do it again.. thanks buddy, and you have been terrific as well. only 8 months until we start all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 At hour 54, the .25 line essentially runs from New Brunswick, Somerset County, Hunterdon County and north. NYC gets grazed by the .25 line, as well. 850s are well off-shore. However, the sun angle increases at that time, so I'm not sure how significant that really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro soundings: Through hour 42, NYC and HPN are rain. With .25" of rain. By hour 48, an additional .55" of precip has fallen and 850's are -.5 for NYC and -1.2 for HPN Most of this is rain, my guess. Wow this is just so close for here, especially being west of HPN. Longitude really helps with the track trying to split SNE. Looks like rain-->heavy snow but could be a tick too warm at the surface in April. I don't know why people are giving up though, the 12z ECM is like a moderate snowstorm for NYC suburbs and 50 miles from being a major hit for everyone. Major shift east on the 12z globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro soundings: Through hour 42, NYC and HPN are rain. With .25" of rain. By hour 48, an additional .55" of precip has fallen and 850's are -.5 for NYC and -1.2 for HPN Most of this is rain, my guess. Hours 48-54, .26" of precip falls and by hour 54 850's are -4 to -5 for LGA and HPN. Thicknesses are 535. This is probably snow, but its falling 7am - 2pm, in the middle of the day, so no way it accumutates. An additional .11" falls through hour 60. 850's plenty cold and surface 35. Again this is in the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 For Andover, NJ 1.55 qpf and the warmest the 850's get are +.1 at 6z on Friday. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro soundings: Through hour 42, NYC and HPN are rain. With .25" of rain. By hour 48, an additional .55" of precip has fallen and 850's are -.5 for NYC and -1.2 for HPN Most of this is rain, my guess. Hours 48-54, .26" of precip falls and by hour 54 850's are -4 to -5 for LGA and HPN. Thicknesses are 535. This is probably snow, but its falling 7am - 2pm, in the middle of the day, so no way it accumutates. An additional .11" falls through hour 60. 850's plenty cold and surface 35. Again this is in the middle of the day. Sounds good...snow will accumulate up here during the day with -5C 850s. Half the storm is heavy snow here, not bad...988mb south of LI. Onto the 0zs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 At 42 hours, the 850 0 line is in E PA and just misses grazing NW Jersey, and the +4 line hits Atlantic City, and runs ENE of that. That's why I said perhaps like +2 at 850 for C NJ. At 48 hours, there is .25 to .5 of precip for everyone (perhaps closer to .5?), and a .5 to .75 "dot" in Hunterdon and Western Someret County. The 850 0 line is just east of NYC...and bisects Queens. It runs SW through Central Monmouth County, extreme Western Ocean County, and the line continues in that general direction for the entire state of NJ. Central and Northern NJ probably get a couple of inches on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 is that snow at hr 48? I think we might get a couple of inches on this run. You agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The warmest the 850's get at Morristown are +.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You guys realize that if you take the 12z euro and shift is only 50 miles SE, we all get snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 For Andover, NJ 1.55 qpf and the warmest the 850's get are +.1 at 6z on Friday. Wow. sorry for the IMBY post but its the Euro so its not like I can just look it up myself, how does it look for KMMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 At hour 54, the .25 line essentially runs from New Brunswick, Somerset County, Hunterdon County and north. NYC gets grazed by the .25 line, as well. 850s are well off-shore. However, the sun angle increases at that time, so I'm not sure how significant that really is. What time of day are we talking about for this hypothetical changeover to occur lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If you're west of Newarks longitude and north of New Brunswicks Latitude on the Euro, you get at least a few hours of moderate to heavy snow..on this 12z run. The cooling occurs a good bit faster than the 00z run as the dynamics develop a bit faster as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You guys realize that if you take the 12z euro and shift is only 50 miles SE, we all get snow? that's it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What time of day are we talking about for this hypothetical changeover to occur lol. The precip from 48-54 hours occurs from 8am to 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You guys realize that if you take the 12z euro and shift is only 50 miles SE, we all get snow? This is why OKX went with watches...impossible call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 According to soundings, without other levels of course, based on 850's it looks like NW NJ has a chance at more than a foot and north-central NJ at least 4-8, even with an 8-1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro soundings: Through hour 42, NYC and HPN are rain. With .25" of rain. By hour 48, an additional .55" of precip has fallen and 850's are -.5 for NYC and -1.2 for HPN Most of this is rain, my guess. Hours 48-54, .26" of precip falls and by hour 54 850's are -4 to -5 for LGA and HPN. Thicknesses are 535. This is probably snow, but its falling 7am - 2pm, in the middle of the day, so no way it accumutates. An additional .11" falls through hour 60. 850's plenty cold and surface 35. Again this is in the middle of the day. This is a case where I might get more than NYC because I am away from the urban heat island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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