NortheastPAWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yep, I hate rain in April too-- basically what I want is either a snowstorm in early April and a heatwave later in the month or if the snowstorm isnt going to happen, a hot month like we had last April Last April was bliss. Being the trend of NEPA Aprils has been clouds and 40s, that was one of my favorite months last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Fixed. LOL it's different up by your way.... but around here our major severe weather season is September and October. The SST ruin it for us in April and May (usually). June is the turn around month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I love snow, but I have had enough. If this storm was going to produce a huge ccb heavy wet snow bomb, fine. If not, I'd rather it torch. The collapse of the blocking on the ensembles is the best thing I've seen all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Besides that Long Island doesn't have a severe wx season in Spring..... our severe weather season is September and October lol. I hope all these spring snowhaters remember this next winter when NYC gets like 10" of snow for the whole season and like one 4" max event in February lol. That would be perfectly fine with me......could we also push for above normal temps next winter for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looks like the sun is trying to wake up from its slumber-- we need the same kind of solar conditions to have strong blocking next winter as we had this winter. Those sea breezes usually suck up any chance of severe weather here before June.... living in Rockville Centre as you did, I'm sure you remember how the echoes would get swallowed up by the coastal front as they tried to make it east. Yup, every damn time. The Marine Layer always provides a layer of stability. And omg do you remember May of 2005, and how cold/miserable that month was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You are hilarious. We have a La Nina pattern, which history has shown that April will be below normal temp wise. 90s in April are pretty rare-- although I wouldnt mind seeing them April 20th onwards.... it's definitely better than 45 degrees and rain or 55 degrees and a stiff sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I love snow, but I have had enough. If this storm was going to produce a huge ccb heavy wet snow bomb, fine. If not, I'd rather it torch. The collapse of the blocking on the ensembles is the best thing I've seen all day. GFS tries to develop a -EPO pattern, which will keep us colder, but... we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yup, every damn time. The Marine Layer always provides a layer of stability. And omg do you remember May of 2005, and how cold/miserable that month was? May 2005 doesn't hold a candle on May 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yup, every damn time. The Marine Layer always provides a layer of stability. And omg do you remember May of 2005, and how cold/miserable that month was? Was that the month where we had like 5" of rain Memorial Day weekend? I remember that like it was yesterday lol. Everything was flooded out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Strongly agree with this thank you..man you have been great on this board this winter..can't wait for next November when we can do it again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I love snow, but I have had enough. If this storm was going to produce a huge ccb heavy wet snow bomb, fine. If not, I'd rather it torch. The collapse of the blocking on the ensembles is the best thing I've seen all day. And look at it this way. Even if we are slightly below normal on day 10, the NYC avg hi/lo is 58/42 by then. At least that is pretty comfortable. Two weeks from today the avgs are 60/43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The idea on all the guidance, whether the track is west or east, is that the CCB is not going to develop until the storm is past our latitude. With the upper level dynamics and height field shifting a little slower, this makes sense. And we aren't going to get snow without the strong dynamics and frontogenic banding, which on the models yesterday was allowing for dynamic cooling. You can see on the 12z NAM how, even though the storm is well east and we get some light QPF, temperatures are in the 40's. I think it's about time to move on from this threat, here, unless you have serious elevation. NZucker and snywx definetely still stand a chance if you take a GFS/NAM compromise. 58 page thread, but it all comes down to this. If the storm develops too late to give us the vertical velocities required to achieve serious dynamic cooling, via heavy precipitation rates, there's no way we get snow with 34-35F surface temps. Will be light to moderate rain, which sucks, with maybe a small chance of some snow near the end as colder air is drawn in, but even then, that will be occurring during daylight hours, so it's almost time to turn out the lights. Unless most of the models are missing something important and we see a major shift, which becomes less likely as we get closer to the storm, since the error bars are quickly narrowing around the possible set of solutions. At this point, we're closer to the event start (30-36 hours) than we were back on the 12/26 storm, when there was that giant model shift at about 42 hours before the event start and that was considered a pretty late shift. I suppose we could hope for a miracle along the I-95 corridor, but it's looking bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Speaking of sea breezes... there is one today. Winds finally lightened enough to allow it. Temps have dropped to the mid 40s along the immediate South Shore of LI and in coastal CT. Looks like the sun is trying to wake up from its slumber-- we need the same kind of solar conditions to have strong blocking next winter as we had this winter. Those sea breezes usually suck up any chance of severe weather here before June.... living in Rockville Centre as you did, I'm sure you remember how the echoes would get swallowed up by the coastal front as they tried to make it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I know I've been debbie downer on the snow, but if you've known me through the years on here I am way more pro-snow than not (I was super pissed I missed boxing day bc I was back home in VA for christmas, where we got all of 2"). However by now with the flowers up and baseball season starting, enough is enough. Between living in Philly last year and here this year, that is a combined 12 feet of snow. I'm good for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I love snow, but I have had enough. If this storm was going to produce a huge ccb heavy wet snow bomb, fine. If not, I'd rather it torch. The collapse of the blocking on the ensembles is the best thing I've seen all day. I think you'd change your thoughts for this one: BTW this is supposed to be a discussion of the current Nor'easter, not how much rain we need for nice spring flowers in May or baseball season to go on. Please keep it on topic as much as possible, many of us are still following this storm for here and other places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12z ECM apparently is less amplified than 0Z according to SNE discussion and Will Schwartz/ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Speaking of sea breezes... there is one today. Winds finally lightened enough to allow it. Temps have dropped to the mid 40s along the immediate South Shore of LI and in coastal CT. It made it here too-- my high was 51.0, now down to 49.1 It's also kind of overcast (high overcast.) This is the kind of weather that will piss me off in July if it's like 89 degrees and the sea breeze moves in with the overcast and keeps it from getting to 90 here. Last summer was awesome in how few times that happened lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12z ECM apparently is less amplified than 0Z according to SNE discussion and Will Schwartz/ORH. That might just mean that it blossoms too late, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 is that snow at hr 48? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 is that snow at hr 48? and hr 54 for that matter lol looks like this flower talk made the euro mad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 EC DAY 2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 and hr 54 for that matter lol looks like this flower talk made the euro mad Some more detail please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will says all snow for Boston and most of SNE.... don't know what that means for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 is that snow at hr 48? Yeah, it is. However, we don't know when exactly the temps crashed, as our 850s were probably like +2 at 42 hours. Maybe about half of the .25 to .5 (there is a .5 to .75 "dot" in West, Central NJ) is snow? Hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Speaking of sea breezes... there is one today. Winds finally lightened enough to allow it. Temps have dropped to the mid 40s along the immediate South Shore of LI and in coastal CT. Yup definitely a cold south wind here in Long Beach, no marine layer yet though i could see some low clouds and fog this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Westchester looks to get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Please keep it on topic as much as possible, many of us are still following this storm for here and other places. I'm sure you'd find some interesting dialogue in the New England or Upstate NY/Penn sub forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 A little bit too warm for us, a tick too warm at H850. But, I have a feeling that tonight will be the comeback of the season (aside from 12/26). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ill post soundings, when they are out to 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Westchester looks to get crushed Ha, let me know if it says more than the 1-3" the last EURO run had for me down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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