pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Then why even bother posting here.....you never add anything to the discussion. All you do is troll and talk about how you want the warmer weather to come. It could probably be snowing heavily and 28 degrees in the park and you would be saying its rain and 36 in midtown. Nobody gives a crap. Not to take this OT so this will be the last post of mine on this particular issue, but I've been on these boards for far longer than you and that's NOT all I do. I am a huge snow fan during the winter, but the weeniesm displayed here is outright ridiculous. There were NOT widespread accumulations of 6"+ last week ANYWHERE. The NWS's forecasts were generally accurate, as usual. I didn't think it would get much below 30 here in the city for the past few days, but I was a bit off as we've had two nights at 26. However, closer to where I live in the city it doesn't appear to have gotten quite down there as there is no evidence around me of a hard freeze. I live a bit lower than the park and in a much more urbanized area, so that makes sense. Either way, my opinion that it will not snow and will rain in NYC is an equally acceptable position to have as those of you who think it will snow. This isn't a snow-lovers-only board. Posting that it will rain instead of snow in the middle of the strongest heat island in the country in early April is not "trolling." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 looks like the euro made some notable improvements at H5, it looks like it wants to blow its top off but its not in gfs territory yet..At hr 96 there are multiple pieces off energy along the trough just hanging out, likely wrong imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I find the report button works well, although apparantly not well enough. I may make some bad judgement calls and perhaps I've gone overboard with a few things but at least I don't go out trolling a legit threat with no scientific reasoning other than climo. Honestly-- if people don't want it to snow, why is it so hard for them to stay quiet and just wait another few weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 This is a fallacy-- the sea surface temps are colder now than they were in January. The other problem is the chances of accumulating snow on any given day in the entire winter is VERY LOW. This applies to December, January and February. It's the reason why we don't forecast individual days.... we forecast patterns. See above post for why it's not "over" until you get to the latest accumulating snowfall. For me, that's April 19-20. The fallacy is taking single events that have happened in the past as reasoning that it might snow on a particular date, because one doesn't consider the outcomes where such an event did NOT occur in the same timeframe. The latter is obviously far more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Not to take this OT so this will be the last post of mine on this particular issue, but I've been on these boards for far longer than you and that's NOT all I do. I am a huge snow fan during the winter, but the weeniesm displayed here is outright ridiculous. There were NOT widespread accumulations of 6"+ last week ANYWHERE. The NWS's forecasts were generally accurate, as usual. I didn't think it would get much below 30 here in the city for the past few days, but I was a bit off as we've had two nights at 26. However, closer to where I live in the city it doesn't appear to have gotten quite down there as there is no evidence around me of a hard freeze. I live a bit lower than the park and in a much more urbanized area, so that makes sense. Either way, my opinion that it will not snow and will rain in NYC is an equally acceptable position to have as those of you who think it will snow. This isn't a snow-lovers-only board. Posting that it will rain instead of snow in the middle of the strongest heat island in the country in early April is not "trolling." I actually enjoyed my 2-3 inches of snow-- it made everything look nice again. If we get a slushy few inches, Im fine with it. It's not going to get hot any time soon so it's better to root for snow than boring cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Honestly-- if people don't want it to snow, why is it so hard for them to stay quiet and just wait another few weeks? Where does it say that you have to want snow to post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The fallacy is taking single events that have happened in the past as reasoning that it might snow on a particular date, because one doesn't consider the outcomes where such an event did NOT occur in the same timeframe. The latter is obviously far more likely. No that's not what I'm saying-- I'm just saying the chances aren't 0 or even near 0. Maybe more like 30% if you go by statistical probability alone (for an accumulating snowfall of any size.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Not to take this OT so this will be the last post of mine on this particular issue, but I've been on these boards for far longer than you and that's NOT all I do. I am a huge snow fan during the winter, but the weeniesm displayed here is outright ridiculous. There were NOT widespread accumulations of 6"+ last week ANYWHERE. The NWS's forecasts were generally accurate, as usual. I didn't think it would get much below 30 here in the city for the past few days, but I was a bit off as we've had two nights at 26. However, closer to where I live in the city it doesn't appear to have gotten quite down there as there is no evidence around me of a hard freeze. I live a bit lower than the park and in a much more urbanized area, so that makes sense. Either way, my opinion that it will not snow and will rain in NYC is an equally acceptable position to have as those of you who think it will snow. This isn't a snow-lovers-only board. Posting that it will rain instead of snow in the middle of the strongest heat island in the country in early April is not "trolling." perhaps if you offered more detailed reasoning such as "the pattern doesn't support it" or "model consensus points towards rain" people might agree with you, but to base your entire argument off of climo makes you the biggest here IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Where does it say that you have to want snow to post? Yeah, but when you say the same thing over and over again it clogs up the boards. Let them have their fun, no one can control what happens, so let them enjoy looking at the models and hoping for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Looks chilly after that, however...How about some flurries with temps in the 30s on April 6th? I think you better keep your day job since meteorology clearly isn't your thing. Its just that us normal people are really really frustrated that we have been getting January weather in late march/ early april. And it just seems like there is no end to it in sight...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Not to take this OT so this will be the last post of mine on this particular issue, but I've been on these boards for far longer than you and that's NOT all I do. I am a huge snow fan during the winter, but the weeniesm displayed here is outright ridiculous. There were NOT widespread accumulations of 6"+ last week ANYWHERE. The NWS's forecasts were generally accurate, as usual. I didn't think it would get much below 30 here in the city for the past few days, but I was a bit off as we've had two nights at 26. However, closer to where I live in the city it doesn't appear to have gotten quite down there as there is no evidence around me of a hard freeze. I live a bit lower than the park and in a much more urbanized area, so that makes sense. Either way, my opinion that it will not snow and will rain in NYC is an equally acceptable position to have as those of you who think it will snow. This isn't a snow-lovers-only board. Posting that it will rain instead of snow in the middle of the strongest heat island in the country in early April is not "trolling." no man your totally off base. its one thing to debate or discuss your reasoning but you havent. the past few weeks youre trolling on people who are tracking snow chances. the fact that YOU want warm and dry is completely irrelevant yet you seem to make it a point EVERYTIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 No that's not what I'm saying-- I'm just saying the chances aren't 0 or even near 0. Maybe more like 30% if you go by statistical probability alone (for an accumulating snowfall of any size.) I'd say the chances with a becoming-positive NAO, departing cold air, wide model discrepancies, and it being the beginning of April are closer to 1 or 2% for the city ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Not to take this OT so this will be the last post of mine on this particular issue, but I've been on these boards for far longer than you and that's NOT all I do. I am a huge snow fan during the winter, but the weeniesm displayed here is outright ridiculous. There were NOT widespread accumulations of 6"+ last week ANYWHERE. The NWS's forecasts were generally accurate, as usual. I didn't think it would get much below 30 here in the city for the past few days, but I was a bit off as we've had two nights at 26. However, closer to where I live in the city it doesn't appear to have gotten quite down there as there is no evidence around me of a hard freeze. I live a bit lower than the park and in a much more urbanized area, so that makes sense. Either way, my opinion that it will not snow and will rain in NYC is an equally acceptable position to have as those of you who think it will snow. This isn't a snow-lovers-only board. Posting that it will rain instead of snow in the middle of the strongest heat island in the country in early April is not "trolling." You are joking about anywhere correct for last week? Looks like to the WNW of NYC there was a large area of widespread 6 + snowfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yeah, but when you say the same thing over and over again it clogs up the boards. Let them have their fun, no one can control what happens, so let them enjoy looking at the models and hoping for snow. Taking outliers as justification for a snowy forecast is essentially tantamount to saying the same thing over and over again, so I still fail to see your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The fallacy is taking single events that have happened in the past as reasoning that it might snow on a particular date, because one doesn't consider the outcomes where such an event did NOT occur in the same timeframe. The latter is obviously far more likely. I am more of an observer here, and my post won't matter much. I agree with you that it is Highly unlikely to see Snow in NYC this time of year. Basing predictions on individual events in the past is not necessarily indicative of future potential... Having said that, the other posters you are debating seem to take offense to your posts, as they do appear to come off not as predictions but as doctrinaire facts. Maybe it will not snow this Friday, but as of now there are Many models showing this potential for our area. So why bother nay-saying it, when we all agree it is unlikely? Why can't you just state what "may" happen, without trying to proclaim what "will" happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I'd say the chances with a becoming-positive NAO, departing cold air, wide model discrepancies, and it being the beginning of April are closer to 1 or 2% for the city ATTM. If NYC gets accumulating snow anytime between now and May 1st will you stop posting here for a month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I'd say the chances with a becoming-positive NAO, departing cold air, wide model discrepancies, and it being the beginning of April are closer to 1 or 2% for the city ATTM. Looks like the people who are bullish on the chances of snow are saying that the change of the NAO state is why the chances are there.... (going from negative to positive in this case.) As far as milder weather as a result of a positive NAO, that probably won't be felt until next week-- or Sunday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 What is the Euro up to at 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 If everything always happened according to climo there would never ever be a need for weather forecasts. Climo is nothing but a dumbing down of averages. It's not science-- it's elementary school math. Climo is one of the tools that meteorologists use to help them forecast the weather, and it can be helpful at times when the weather pattern is similar to what is expected for that time of year, but if we're in an unusual pattern (like what we're in now), it's silly to just rely on what usually happens. Sure it can tell us that given the time of year it's unlikely that it's going to snow along the coast, and it allows us to be more hesitant, but it shouldn't be the only thing we rely on when we're in a pattern like this. It has snowed in this area at this time of year and it's always possible that it can do it again if the conditions are just right. Pazzo's complete reliance on climo to tell us there is no chance of it snowing at this time of year and that we're silly for even spending any time tracking it (when models are showing some potential) is silly IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Its just that us bores are really really frustrated that we have been getting January weather in late march/ early april. And it just seems like there is no end to it in sight...... fyp jk obv.... but wat makes you think your normal? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 What is the Euro up to at 12Z? Nothing. Has rain for our area for Thursday and Friday. .51"-.60" worth. And then after that, a weak, disorganized coastal that gives SNE some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 You are joking about anywhere correct for last week? Looks like to the WNW of NYC there was a large area of widespread 6 + snowfall! Hey ATown.... thanks for that map.... what was the highest snowfall total in the Poconos last week? I see a blip of dark blue near Mt Pocono. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Pazzo destroys another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I am more of an observer here, and my post won't matter much. I agree with you that it is Highly unlikely to see Snow in NYC this time of year. Basing predictions on individual events in the past is not necessarily indicative of future potential... Having said that, the other posters you are debating seem to take offense to your posts, as they do appear to come off not as predictions but as doctrinaire facts. Maybe it will not snow this Friday, but as of now there are Many models showing this potential for our area. So why bother nay-saying it, when we all agree it is unlikely? Why can't you just state what "may" happen, without trying to proclaim what "will" happen? They also come off as insulting to our intelligence, since his tone implies that we are all wasting our time tracking the potential, and that he's above all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Almost every statistic of meteorology is rare. You could live in the heart of Tornado country and yet the chances of seeing a tornado on any given day within 2 miles of your location are lower than hitting the Mega Millions JP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 What about Wed night and Thu - sfc temps and precip.? From the RH fields it looks like the first wave produces some precip. over the NYC area. Euro has .49" of rain for NYC thru Friday 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I am more of an observer here, and my post won't matter much. I agree with you that it is Highly unlikely to see Snow in NYC this time of year. Basing predictions on individual events in the past is not necessarily indicative of future potential... Having said that, the other posters you are debating seem to take offense to your posts, as they do appear to come off not as predictions but as doctrinaire facts. Maybe it will not snow this Friday, but as of now there are Many models showing this potential for our area. So why bother nay-saying it, when we all agree it is unlikely? Why can't you just state what "may" happen, without trying to proclaim what "will" happen? Fair point. It may snow later this week in Manhattan. The odds of such an even occurring, however, are tiny. Probably up there with a 65+ degree day in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Pazzo destroys another thread. Yup. Pazzo, there is a banter thread for this kind of stuff. Please use it. What you posted is the same thing as one of us coming in here and saying "I think it will snow 20" on Friday". Doesnt belong in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 fyp 99.9% of the nyc population hates cold and snow in the spring time. Its really depressing and makes it almost impossible to be outside. I find it really hard to believe that anyone truly would rather have a 30 degree day than a 60 degree day in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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