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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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Agree, but 80% of the folks who post on this subforum won't see more than a driving rainstorm or non accumulating snow...so it's over for the vast majority....

NYC probably sees like 1-3" on the 0z ECM at the end...even the GFS looks like it might flip us to snow for a while up here as the storm bombs near the Cape.

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NYC probably sees like 1-3" on the 0z ECM at the end...even the GFS looks like it might flip us to snow for a while up here as the storm bombs near the Cape.

The storm was stalling near the Cape-- sort of like the second stall in December 1992 when we picked up a quick 1-3" on the tail end.

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12z Ukie is offshore. It is also weaker than the GFS.

http://weather.uwyo....F1=p06i&C2=pmsl

It looks like it simply develops too late, if anything. I bet a lot of GEFS members are doing the same.

Though it is interesting to see the Ukie be less amplified. However, we need absolutely perfect timing in order to get the mid-level features to develop quickly, and draw in the cold air for us at the same time.

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If it's going to be way below average temps, might as well look for some snow.

Besides not all of us live in the tropics on the coast, must be breaking out the ACs down in Brooklyn by nowsun.gif

yep..I love snow..and I also love the change of seasons.Watching baseball games with 40 degrees and rain is kind of depressing.Not a big fan of April noreasters

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It's over for about 95% of us. C'mon, it's March 30th. The board shouldn't be flipping out over an April storm that had maybe 10% chance of producing. :axe:

Time for spring and warm weather.

i wish you told me this 2 days ago when every model was crushing the area with plastering snow ;)

but now its not looking too good, low isnt as deep as the models were showing, its maturing and closing off later. All bad signs for the coast

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It's over for about 95% of us. C'mon, it's March 30th. The board shouldn't be flipping out over an April storm that had maybe 10% chance of producing. :axe:

Time for spring and warm weather.

Severe weather is great, tracking hurricanes fantastic..even fall rainstorms with mud on the field at football games is fun..heatwaves too..but a rainy cold day in April?..I find nothing exciting about that..but that's me

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i wish you told me this 2 days ago when every model was crushing the area with plastering snow ;)

but now its not looking too good, low isnt as deep as the models were showing, its maturing and closing off later. All bad signs for the coast

Even the best solutions were closing off the mid-level features a tad too late for my liking.

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Even the best solutions were closing off the mid-level features a tad too late for my liking.

there were a few gfs runs and yesterdays 12z euro that were definately showing accumulating heavy wet snow for nyc and nw. They were showing a low in the mid 980's ..A 996mb -992mb low will not get it done.

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The idea on all the guidance, whether the track is west or east, is that the CCB is not going to develop until the storm is past our latitude. With the upper level dynamics and height field shifting a little slower, this makes sense. And we aren't going to get snow without the strong dynamics and frontogenic banding, which on the models yesterday was allowing for dynamic cooling.

You can see on the 12z NAM how, even though the storm is well east and we get some light QPF, temperatures are in the 40's. I think it's about time to move on from this threat, here, unless you have serious elevation. NZucker and snywx definetely still stand a chance if you take a GFS/NAM compromise.

f30.gif

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GFS has a couple of storms in the long range. It shows no warmup at all.

After we get through Friday's nightmare, and aside from next thursday, the next 10 days appear to be average temps at worst. Plus the average april high is around 60. Its time to take off the snow goggles, spring will be out in full force.

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there were a few gfs runs and yesterdays 12z euro that were definately showing accumulating heavy wet snow for nyc and nw. They were showing a low in the mid 980's ..A 996mb -992mb low will not get it done.

Oh yeah, they definitely were. But I just never liked the fact that the mid-level features still hadn't been closed off until the storm was to our north, even in the snowiest solutions. It could have still worked (and maybe it still will?), but there is a lot less room for error when the mid-level features close off a lot earlier.

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