MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12z Ukie is offshore. It is also weaker than the GFS. http://weather.uwyo....F1=p06i&C2=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Agree, but 80% of the folks who post on this subforum won't see more than a driving rainstorm or non accumulating snow...so it's over for the vast majority.... NYC probably sees like 1-3" on the 0z ECM at the end...even the GFS looks like it might flip us to snow for a while up here as the storm bombs near the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12z Ukie is offshore. It is also weaker than the GFS. http://weather.uwyo....F1=p06i&C2=pmsl Well, that was a bit unexpected lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NYC probably sees like 1-3" on the 0z ECM at the end...even the GFS looks like it might flip us to snow for a while up here as the storm bombs near the Cape. The storm was stalling near the Cape-- sort of like the second stall in December 1992 when we picked up a quick 1-3" on the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The storm was stalling near the Cape-- sort of like the second stall in December 1992 when we picked up a quick 1-3" on the tail end. Yes pretty similar...NW flow snowfalls never work great in NYC metro but the storm is powerful enough to give the City a white ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 English please? you see...right there is perfect example. i take that back, you are a tool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12z Ukie is offshore. It is also weaker than the GFS. http://weather.uwyo....F1=p06i&C2=pmsl It looks like it simply develops too late, if anything. I bet a lot of GEFS members are doing the same. Though it is interesting to see the Ukie be less amplified. However, we need absolutely perfect timing in order to get the mid-level features to develop quickly, and draw in the cold air for us at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If it's going to be way below average temps, might as well look for some snow. Besides not all of us live in the tropics on the coast, must be breaking out the ACs down in Brooklyn by now yep..I love snow..and I also love the change of seasons.Watching baseball games with 40 degrees and rain is kind of depressing.Not a big fan of April noreasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 yep..I love snow..and I also love the change of seasons.Watching baseball games with 40 degrees and rain is kind of depressing.Not a big fan of April noreasters I just love the power of a strong Nor'easter, wet or white. Any season. June is OK too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Unreal QPF next week...rain or snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 They better start on an ark in Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's over for about 95% of us. C'mon, it's March 30th. The board shouldn't be flipping out over an April storm that had maybe 10% chance of producing. Time for spring and warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's over for about 95% of us. C'mon, it's March 30th. The board shouldn't be flipping out over an April storm that had maybe 10% chance of producing. Time for spring and warm weather. we are discussing it. wether its scientific or just weenie thoughts....wether it rains or snows....we are trcaking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's over for about 95% of us. C'mon, it's March 30th. The board shouldn't be flipping out over an April storm that had maybe 10% chance of producing. Time for spring and warm weather. i wish you told me this 2 days ago when every model was crushing the area with plastering snow but now its not looking too good, low isnt as deep as the models were showing, its maturing and closing off later. All bad signs for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's over for about 95% of us. C'mon, it's March 30th. The board shouldn't be flipping out over an April storm that had maybe 10% chance of producing. Time for spring and warm weather. Who's flipping out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Deja vu next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's over for about 95% of us. C'mon, it's March 30th. The board shouldn't be flipping out over an April storm that had maybe 10% chance of producing. Time for spring and warm weather. Severe weather is great, tracking hurricanes fantastic..even fall rainstorms with mud on the field at football games is fun..heatwaves too..but a rainy cold day in April?..I find nothing exciting about that..but that's me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Deja vu next week? Looks like a much more super charged version. I hope it shows up on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 i wish you told me this 2 days ago when every model was crushing the area with plastering snow but now its not looking too good, low isnt as deep as the models were showing, its maturing and closing off later. All bad signs for the coast Even the best solutions were closing off the mid-level features a tad too late for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The GFS ensemble mean is probably being skewed by a few members that came in super amplified. Either way its nice to see. lol... Did you even think to realize that maybe its skewed by a few OTS members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 lol... Did you even think to realize that maybe its skewed by a few OTS members? This might be the storm that allows you to pass me. Unless the 6z GFS verifies and the 0C line shoots up to ALB suddenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 lol... Did you even think to realize that maybe its skewed by a few OTS members? Alot of the members have been way ots for days nothing new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Even the best solutions were closing off the mid-level features a tad too late for my liking. there were a few gfs runs and yesterdays 12z euro that were definately showing accumulating heavy wet snow for nyc and nw. They were showing a low in the mid 980's ..A 996mb -992mb low will not get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The idea on all the guidance, whether the track is west or east, is that the CCB is not going to develop until the storm is past our latitude. With the upper level dynamics and height field shifting a little slower, this makes sense. And we aren't going to get snow without the strong dynamics and frontogenic banding, which on the models yesterday was allowing for dynamic cooling. You can see on the 12z NAM how, even though the storm is well east and we get some light QPF, temperatures are in the 40's. I think it's about time to move on from this threat, here, unless you have serious elevation. NZucker and snywx definetely still stand a chance if you take a GFS/NAM compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Even the best solutions were closing off the mid-level features a tad too late for my liking. Eh...I think there were a few which had the mid level centers closed off the NJ coast. But those are distant memories now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GFS has a couple of storms in the long range. It shows no warmup at all. After we get through Friday's nightmare, and aside from next thursday, the next 10 days appear to be average temps at worst. Plus the average april high is around 60. Its time to take off the snow goggles, spring will be out in full force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 IF it is any consolation the 12 Z NOGAPS takes the exact same surface track as the 12 Z GFS..but with one difference.. the 850s are colder on the 12 Z Nogaps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This might be the storm that allows you to pass me. Unless the 6z GFS verifies and the 0C line shoots up to ALB suddenly. 6z GFS still gave us a good dumping here. My longitude is really gonna help on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 there were a few gfs runs and yesterdays 12z euro that were definately showing accumulating heavy wet snow for nyc and nw. They were showing a low in the mid 980's ..A 996mb -992mb low will not get it done. Oh yeah, they definitely were. But I just never liked the fact that the mid-level features still hadn't been closed off until the storm was to our north, even in the snowiest solutions. It could have still worked (and maybe it still will?), but there is a lot less room for error when the mid-level features close off a lot earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 6z GFS still gave us a good dumping here. My longitude is really gonna help on this one. Yeah if that low tucks into NJ, the fact that you're farther west is key. Of course we could both stay all snow if you take a NAM/GFS/ECM compromise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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