A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 All I was implying with the dryslot comment was that the storm is done at 42 hrs, and its all rain in the area. 1 - 1.5 inches of qpf falls before that I guess the dryslot saves us from having flooding issues.... and looks like the storm now stalls near Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Track is OK but still a little tight...75 miles off ACY won't cut it in April. We need the GFS to adjust like 50-100 miles east to make a snowstorm a reality. Certainly a close call. They do OK but probably change over between 42 and 48 hours, there's a lot of WAA ahead of the low in SNE, all of eastern CT and RI is rain on the 12z GFS. Hills of northern Worcester County get crushed. We actually need a track east of Cape Cod then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 this type of track is an Albany, NY special.. no doubt about it.. these tracks right along the immediate coast always nail the capital district Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 this type of track is an Albany, NY special.. no doubt about it.. these tracks right along the immediate coast always nail the capital district Two storms come to mind.... April 1983 and April 1987.... in April 1983 we actually got 2-3" of snow here on the 19-20th before it flipped over to rain. Poconos and Interior NYS got plastered. It happened again in October 1987. We should throw in the Tax Day 2007 storm in there also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Did anybody else notice that the GFS is very close to phasing in the 3rd piece of energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 this type of track is an Albany, NY special.. no doubt about it.. these tracks right along the immediate coast always nail the capital district H7 low tracks right over NYC, which is a signal for a heavy snowstorm in the Capital District and Poconos: This storm is going to be very frustrating for Westchester/Rockland since it will probably mix with snow and end that way, but just be inches from a huge event. In any case, this is going to be a very difficult forecast for those in charge of places like Middletown, Peekskill, Poughkeepsie, etc. It's pretty easy to call for rain in NYC at this point, but the outlying areas are on the line between heavy rain and a crushing and dangerous heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Im guessing you're going to be chasing this storm-- it'd be frustrating to be so close to snow and not see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The analogs support the GFS very well. This is not going to reach its full potential over our area unless the models are really missing something at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Should make our friends in the interior which got shafted on Boxing Day quite happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow, what a difference 24 hours can make. We went from a potential snowstorm to a big rainstorm. O well, at least this didn't occur in December or January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Should make our friends in the interior which got shafted on Boxing Day quite happy. PSU Hazleton is already bouncing off the walls. And wondering why this didn't happen in December or January lol. I guarantee if it had, there'd be like 10 people on this board who would be happy and like 1000000000 who would be unhappy lol. Good thing that December and January tend to be colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Im guessing you're going to be chasing this storm-- it'd be frustrating to be so close to snow and not see it. Yeah no way I am gonna sit here while 40 miles north gets hammered. I still think NYC folks should keep following this threat, though, especially those in the NW suburbs. GFS is not too far off from a blue snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I see..... 40s and rain for the city. With the cold air departing accumulating snow in NYC is beyond a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Im guessing you're going to be chasing this storm-- it'd be frustrating to be so close to snow and not see it. Just think of how much more frustrating it was to see Boxing Day unfold and end up with an inch or two because you live in NE PA. It happened to me last year with one of the big storms in February. I had a warning for 4-8" even though the models had consistenly showed a very sharp northern cutoff over north Jersey that would not budge. My warning turned into virga and was canceled two hours into the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I wouldn't be claming victory just yet, even if the city gets 1" of snow you would be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 pazzo83, on 28 March 2011 - 12:49 PM, said: I see..... 40s and rain for the city. With the cold air departing accumulating snow in NYC is beyond a long shot. I am going to troll you constantly because I have no life. I don't even look at the models, I just know what the weather is like in Florida and forecast the same for here since that's what I want. I participate in snowstorm threads only to talk about how it's going to rain. I am a loser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I wouldn't be claming victory just yet, even if the city gets 1" of snow you would be wrong Yup, looks like NYC ends as snow on the GFS, and they did on the 0z ECM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Just think of how much more frustrating it was to see Boxing Day unfold and end up with an inch or two because you live in NE PA. It happened to me last year with one of the big storms in February. I had a warning for 4-8" even though the models had consistenly showed a very sharp northern cutoff over north Jersey that would not budge. My warning turned into virga and was canceled two hours into the event. Not really man... Im not feeling it for NE PA.... they average like 50+ inches of snow a year lol. Plus my sister lives in the Poconos and she said she had constant snowcover from December to the middle of March and picked up a foot of snow just this past week. They get enough snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yup, looks like NYC ends as snow on the GFS, and they did on the 0z ECM as well. 1" of snow is CLIMO for April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Not really man... Im not feeling it for NE PA.... they average like 50+ inches of snow a year lol. Plus my sister lives in the Poconos and she said she had constant snowcover from December to the middle of March and picked up a foot of snow just this past week. They get enough snow lol. Same here. I wanted this storm because I wanted to see NYC move into 2nd place or/and break the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro run is big....if Dr. Yes comes in colder than or just as cold as the GFS it probably means the GFS is too warm. It's too bad we can't use the typical cold biased NAM in this case since its storm eveolution is garbage for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I know whats its like to be shafted in a snow storm. Living in Morris County I see alot of action miss me to the south and I don't typically have the elevation to make up for it with scenarios like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 1" of snow is CLIMO for April I'd like to see how many years have zero. I bet the years that have the random ~6 inch storm really skew the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Same here. I wanted this storm because I wanted to see NYC move into 2nd place or/and break the record. I don't think NYC could break the record with one storm, no way they'd get 14" in a set-up this marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Many people have said that the off runs shouldn't be looked at, but the 18z GFS started this west trend. You have to give a lot of credit to the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Many people have said that the off runs shouldn't be looked at, but the 18z GFS started this west trend. You have to give a lot of credit to the 18z GFS. Storm already happened? I prefer to verify the models based on what actually happened, not based on how a few of them trended in the middle of the storm. GFS already backed off a lot at 12z compared to the much warmer/inland track of the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Many people have said that the off runs shouldn't be looked at, but the 18z GFS started this west trend. You have to give a lot of credit to the 18z GFS. Not really, you still have a fair amount of models/ensembles showing eastern solutions and before yesterday the GFS was showing a track right over us for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I don't think NYC could break the record with one storm, no way they'd get 14" in a set-up this marginal. We could have easily gotten an inch or two to at least get into second place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm very encouraged by the improvement on 12z GFS. Still not perfect for us but it is a step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 pazzo83, on 28 March 2011 - 12:49 PM, said: I see..... 40s and rain for the city. With the cold air departing accumulating snow in NYC is beyond a long shot. I am going to troll you constantly because I have no life. I don't even look at the models, I just know what the weather is like in Florida and forecast the same for here since that's what I want. I participate in snowstorm threads only to talk about how it's going to rain. I am a loser. I'm not trolling, I'm just inferring that the models are reaffirming my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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