IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 careful saying that you would rather have a big coastal rain maker over a complete miss or you might be accused of havng a "flood fetish" GFS looks much different than the NAM already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 we better have some insane snowfall rates to get any accumulations going... i think even grass surfaces are gonna be tough to accumulate.. that snow event from last week.. I had some pretty heavy snowfall rates and it was still not even accumulating on grassy surfaces.. We accumulated snow on the roads here the night of 3/24, don't know what was going on in Rockland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 low pressure over southeast GA forming at 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 We accumulated snow on the roads here the night of 3/24, don't know what was going on in Rockland... Yeah, we did here also-- both nights (3/23 and 3/24) some awesome late snow season nights they were-- I don't care that the accumulation was just barely over 2" total, just to see it snowing like that for a length of time both nights was pretty sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NC/SC border at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Temps always run a bit warm on the RGEM...remember, the Canadians aren't concerned with temps since 99% of their winter precip is snow anyway. I don't understand how it could be east of the 0z ECM with such heavy QPF, and show nothing but rain here. Here is how. There is no source of cold air such as strong arctic HP locked in to the north. The cold air at the surface is eroding regardless of where this tracks. Sometimes the current observations tell more than the models. The dewpoints and temperatures are creeping up steadily across the area. By the time this all gets going, most of if not all of the "cold enough" air will probably be lost. This is not to say it won't be a close call--it very well may be. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 delmarva at 39.. it looks like it is destined to hug the coast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 bombing out at 42.. even 850 temps a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 delmarva at 39.. it looks like it is destined to hug the coast again. I hope we can get a tropical cyclone to track like that this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Here is how. There is no source of cold air such as strong arctic HP locked in to the north. The cold air at the surface is eroding regardless of where this tracks. Sometimes the current observations tell more than the models. The dewpoints and temperatures are creeping up steadily across the area. By the time this all gets going, most of if not all of the "cold enough" air will probably be lost. This is not to say it won't be a close call--it very well may be. WX/PT Yeah... temps are ahead of guidance.... both yesterday and today.... highs AND lows..... we're going to hit 50 here two days in a row. Last week, the temps were actually behind guidance, which is why we got snow at night instead of rain, even at the coast. The models are playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 bombing out at 42.. even 850 temps a problem Colder than 0z/6z for sure, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Here is how. There is no source of cold air such as strong arctic HP locked in to the north. The cold air at the surface is eroding regardless of where this tracks. Sometimes the current observations tell more than the models. The dewpoints and temperatures are creeping up steadily across the area. By the time this all gets going, most of if not all of the "cold enough" air will probably be lost. This is not to say it won't be a close call--it very well may be. WX/PT But the Euro would know this too...it's not like the RGEM is the only model that realizes how we're doing at the surface with regards to T/Td... Only 41.8/28 here in Westchester, not too worrying considering the sun is out strong in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Colder than 0z/6z for sure, though. ok.. i didn't compare.. I mean.. temps are on the warm side on the immediate NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 were being dryslotted by 42 hours on the new gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 certainly a ton of QPF again.. no shortage of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Colder than 0z/6z for sure, though. thats rain and a lot of it for everyone except for NW Jersey and NW portion of Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 1.25"-1.50" of rain for NYC and over 1.50" in eastern LI. Defintelty came well east of its previous 2 runs, but makes no difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 were being dryslotted by 42 hours on the new gfs are we? It didn't look to me that we were, except maybe central, Eastern LI possibly.. but just my interpreation in looking at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 thats rain and a lot of it for everyone except for NW Jersey and NW portion of Orange County. Yeah but the only thing that matters right now is the trend, and that's clearly colder and further offshore. Here was 6z, obnoxious with the 0C line near Albany: 12z has the 0C line near the Westchester/Putnam border at 42, getting there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This is starting to look like a lost cause for anyone outside of Sussex/Warren counties, interior upstate NY and the Poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 thats rain and a lot of it for everyone except for NW Jersey and NW portion of Orange County. Ughh... Not looking forward to the heavy wet snow. Even though it hasnt been a stellar yr for snow up here im ready for spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 1.25"-1.50" of rain for NYC and over 1.50" in eastern LI. Defintelty came well east of its previous 2 runs, but makes no difference. That's a lot of rain for being in a dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 1.25"-1.50" of rain for NYC and over 1.50" in eastern LI. Defintelty came well east of its previous 2 runs, but makes no difference. It will make a difference if it trends 25-50 miles in each of the next few runs..storm is still 2 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The track looks better at least. I wonder why it's still warm - is it later bombing out? At least this run keeps me watching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Nate-- based on that, it looks like Boston gets buried on this GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 are we? It didn't look to me that we were, except maybe central, Eastern LI possibly.. but just my interpreation in looking at it I was using the 700 chart at 42 for that basis. and the 48 hour frame has little precip over the previous 6 hours...its all rain everywhere, im not even sure nw NJ gets any snow out of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NJwinter is right. You can see the dry slot through NYC and eastern Jersey at hour 45 on the 700rh maps. Without this dryslot, we would have been over 2" of rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That's a lot of rain for being in a dryslot All I was implying with the dryslot comment was that the storm is done at 42 hrs, and its all rain in the area. 1 - 1.5 inches of qpf falls before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I was using the 700 chart at 42 for that basis. and the 48 hour frame has little precip over the previous 6 hours...its all rain everywhere, im not even sure nw NJ gets any snow out of this run. ok, got ya'... yep, would agree.. temps are just a bit too warm.. I mean... it's very close, but need a few degrees colder through the entire column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The track looks better at least. I wonder why it's still warm - is it later bombing out? At least this run keeps me watching it. Track is OK but still a little tight...75 miles off ACY won't cut it in April. We need the GFS to adjust like 50-100 miles east to make a snowstorm a reality. Certainly a close call. Nate-- based on that, it looks like Boston gets buried on this GFS run? They do OK but probably change over between 42 and 48 hours, there's a lot of WAA ahead of the low in SNE, all of eastern CT and RI is rain on the 12z GFS. Hills of northern Worcester County get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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