IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ok. They have the best verification scores for precip in the short range (<48). Goes back and forth with euro for 1st and 2nd place. Not saying they are right in this instance but 3z srefs were 1" of precip from the storm and this new run is .25". Thats worth mentioning. I know they are, but were still at the end of it's good range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Here comes the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It sure looks like the first storm wants to get pulled much further north than thought on water vapor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RSM is a big coastal hugger. The I-95 corridor gets a boat load of rain, while inland areas get crush ed with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 well.. i can tell you that the NAM at 15 hours is actually quite a bit stronger with the wave across the southern plains.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 WV loop captures moisture at upper levels. That has little to do with the current rise in dew points. Is this not the initial piece of energy thats causing this....you can clearly see the moisture getting sucked up the coast on the WV loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 i'd say so far the height fields have supressed a good 100 miles further south around the Arklatex region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Definitly looks like it's digging quite a bit more on this run with the second wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Agree with you. If we had decently cold air aloft, then marginal initial temps and dew points probably wouldn't matter so much. But in this case, temps aloft are forecast to be around 0C at the start of the event, before the big WAA push arrives. In last week's storm, high temps were near 50F and dew points were in the mid-upper 20s the day before. However, 850 mb temps were around -4 to -5C as the initial burst of precip. arrived early Wed morning. Look at current temperatures observed and dewpoints. They are both coming way up from 24-36 hours ago. It's going to be damn hard to get them down far enough for accumulations at the coast and in the city, even with a perfect track and intensity. Losing the cold air this early in the game does not bode well for our "would be" grand finale of snow. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 actually this is looking quite like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 yep 2nd wave looking much much better at hour 27.. very strong vort max over western Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It looks like the Nam gives the area non accumulating snow tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 coastal popping over SC/GA hrs 24-27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 HPC has the storm going right over the BM http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 much more amplified than any of its previous runs, but it still doesn't look like it wants to focus on the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 much more amplified than any of its previous runs, but it still doesn't look like it wants to focus on the second wave. It looks like feedback problems with the first low are throwing off the rest of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 At 42 hours, the Nam has a 1000 low on the benchmark. 850's look ok for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That is probably closer to a 997 mb low since they contour every 4 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I don't think the evolution at 500mb supports its surface reflection. It's quite amplified but yet has a weak coastal that more or less just hangs out over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It looks like feedback problems with the first low are throwing off the rest of its run. Agree. The Nam seems to like the first event more for our area. I don't get how the storm stalls withouth blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looks like the NAM is trying to go west...we have a general area of light snow over the tri-state area Thursday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I don't think the evolution at 500mb supports its surface reflection. It's quite amplified but yet has a weak coastal that more or less just hangs out over the BM. It didnt dig as much as gfs and euro. It has the storm in a nice spot for our area, but precip on west side is lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looks like the NAM is trying to go west...we have a general area of light snow over the tri-state area Thursday night... Maybe, but I don't see how you get a general area of light snow with these temperature profiles and lack of vertical velocity, more likely, it's either drizzle, or a more moderate or even heavier snow, but it looks to me like mostly drizzle and temps in the upper 30s. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 what I'm saying is, the 500mb eveolution supports a more organized system then its showing. I'm almost wondering if it would be better to have it slow down so much that the third piece of energy has a chance of phasing in with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The kicker in the midwest has to be watched closely. It can play a big role in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Maybe, but I don't see how you get a general area of light snow with these temperature profiles and lack of vertical velocity, more likely, it's either drizzle, or a more moderate or even heavier snow, but it looks to me like mostly drizzle and temps in the upper 30s. WX/PT Thicknesses are in the low 530's and 850's are -4 and below. While it will not accumulate, due to light intensity, NAM is almost definitelty flakes falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This is looking more and more like the March 31st 1980 storm that gave the city a slushy coating with over an inch of precipitation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Thicknesses are in the low 530's and 850's are -4 and below. While it will not accumulate, due to light intensity, NAM is almost definitelty flakes falling. Once evaporational cooling lets up, you're not getting snow. I know it looks like snow on the model, but that doesn't mean you get snow on March 31st. I've seen this a million times when it's "not supposed to be raining", but it actually is raining because there is no cold air left around (at the surface) and the intensity is gone. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Once evaporational cooling lets up, you're not getting snow. I know it looks like snow on the model, but that doesn't mean you get snow on March 31st. I've seen this a million times when it's "not supposed to be raining", but it actually is raining because there is no cold air left around (at the surface) and the intensity is gone. WX/PT Thanks for explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Once evaporational cooling lets up, you're not getting snow. I know it looks like snow on the model, but that doesn't mean you get snow on March 31st. I've seen this a million times when it's "not supposed to be raining", but it actually is raining because there is no cold air left around (at the surface) and the intensity is gone. WX/PT And 12Z NAM fous rubs this idea right in our faces. There is no vertical velocity during Thursday night and T1 is +1C. When there is more intensity some snow flakes will be spit out, but to say a "general area of light snow over the area" I do not think is accurate. It may go back and forth between spitting out drizzle and flakes depending on intensity but I think that THAT is the best that you can hope for going by NAM on Thursday night. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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