ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Whatis wrong with you? Now your putting words in my mouth It's a joke man. Lighten up. Either way, if GFS is right, flooding will be a concern. Both from rain and from NE winds for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Its way too early in my opinion to be putting out numbers like 5 to 10" That's no conflict at all. A winter storm watch is not a warning. Upton's forecast for western Union is for 2". The watch simply means that there is currently a possibility of a 5" to 10" snowfall, but not a forecast. If things were to stay as is, the watch would later be changed to a winter weather advisory for 2" snows. It's standard practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 pretty surprised that they put these watches out with such high amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 pretty surprised that they put these watches out with such high amounts I think the models are starting to come into an agreement that this storm will be an elevated type storm. Just 18 hours ago, it was looking really good for the coast. I had a feeling something was going to go wrong because this isn't really an ideal pattern for coastal regions. Yes, we do have a rising NAO and positive PNA, but the AO is skyrocketing. Without blocking, I don't think this storm stands a chance anymore in our area. Aso, most of the models now bomb the storm out further northward. Hopefully it changes but things aren't looking too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's not too often you see Upton go with watches for there NJ zones before Mt. Holly does. Usually Upton is the last one to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's a joke man. Lighten up. Either way, if GFS is right, flooding will be a concern. Both from rain and from NE winds for the coast. Earthlight really pissed me off last night with his "flood fetish" comment. In any event, I think we could easily handle 2-3" of rain. The rivers have had enough time to subside and the soil has dried out considerably thanks to mostly dry weather the last few weeks. The only concerning point is that I have heard all the reservoirs are now at or very close to 100% capacity. We do have one dam (Macopin Dam) which runs along Rt 23 which has been questionable for quite some time. It holds back alot of water in West Milford. This broke in 84 and resulted in records which have not been broken yet. Barring a dam failure, I'm not sure we have a legit shot a flooding, despite the mention in the HWO. After a decent shot at some historic snow, especially out in my neck of the woods, I'm about done with the cold and snow until December. I'm ready to put the top down on my car and start heading down the shore every weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Earthlight really pissed me off last night with his "flood fetish" comment. In any event, I think we could easily handle 2-3" of rain. The rivers have had enough time to subside and the soil has dried out considerably thanks to mostly dry weather the last few weeks. The only concerning point is that I have heard all the reservoirs are now at or very close to 100% capacity. After a decent shot at some historic snow, especially out in my neck of the woods, I'm about done with the cold and snow until December. I'm ready to put the top down on my car and start heading down the shore every weekend. Im talking about more for coastal sections. Prolonged winds pushing water onto shore areas. Minor flooding, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Given the timing of this storm system (March 31-April 1), I think that makes it [watches going up so early and specific wording of 5-10/6-12] even more surprising. Everything has to line up perfectly for there to be heavy, wet snow outside of the higher elevations. in my forecast last night I basically went with a mixture of rain and wet snow, said to stay tuned, but that it would be difficult for significant snow accumulations to occur. we'll see what the 30/12z models show today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Given the timing of this storm system (March 31-April 1), I think that makes it [watches going up so early and specific wording of 5-10/6-12] even more surprising. Everything has to line up perfectly for there to be heavy, wet snow outside of the higher elevations. in my forecast last night I basically went with a mixture of rain and wet snow, said to stay tuned, but that it would be difficult for significant snow accumulations to occur. we'll see what the 30/12z models show today... The watch that I dont understand going up so early is for ESSEX and WESTERN UNION in NJ. The others do have elevations in each county that go up to 1K foot. I am in Morris at 800' with 1300' about a half mile to a mile from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Mr. G this morning went with 1-2" in the city and 2-6" to the NW of the city. Calling for rain at the start, mixing with and changing to snow Thursday night with a low of 35 in the city. Then snow Friday morning with a few breaks of sun possible in the afternoon with highs in the 50's. He didn't mention a wind or coastal fooding threat at all. I don't have a problem with his snowfall prediction but I think he is downplaying what looks to be a monster noreaster, even if it ends up being more wet than white. I also think his low for Thursday night is not low enough and it's hard to believe we get that warm on Friday with a bombing low pressure system to our NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah it doesn't make sense, and your area and up into Sussex Warren County probably should be in a watch. But I can understand Mt Holly waiting more than I can see Upton jumping the gun. I've got people in Bergen and Essex county emailing me saying are we really getting 5 to 10" of snow???? The watch that I dont understand going up so early is for ESSEX and WESTERN UNION in NJ. The others do have elevations in each county that go up to 1K foot. I am in Morris at 800' with 1300' about a half mile to a mile from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah it doesn't make sense, and your area and up into Sussex Warren County probably should be in a watch. But I can understand Mt Holly waiting more than I can see Upton jumping the gun. I've got people in Bergen and Essex county emailing me saying are we really getting 5 to 10" of snow???? 100% agree. To big of a chance to bust either way on this. This afternoon or tonight would be fine to put up watch's or warnings. But either way the NWS is always questioned if they are to early or too late. Not a easy job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 im expecting a shift for the better on either the 12z runs this afternoon or 0z runs tonight. If that shift does not happen and models still trend for rainmaker, then I will cancel then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 One thing I've learned is that 90-95% of the time the NWS is right. Some people on here are so conservative with there predictions its crazy. Calling for 1-2" in the city and ending up with 6-12" is just as bad as calling for 6-12" in the city and ending up with 1-2". My call for the city yesterday was 3-6" and I still think thats a pretty good forecast at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 im expecting a shift for the better on either the 12z runs this afternoon or 0z runs tonight. If that shift does not happen and models still trend for rainmaker, then I will cancel then. I'm still worried about this being too amped up and most of the analogs fit this idea. Big interior snows and little to nothing from the city on east. The Christmas 2002 storm actually is ranked fairly high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 One thing I've learned is that 90-95% the NWS is right. Some people on here are so conservative with there predictions its crazy. Calling for 1-2" in the city and ending up with 6-12" is just as bad as calling for 6-12" in the city and ending up with 1-2". My call for the city yesterday was 3-6" and I still think thats a pretty good forecast at the moment. The models this past winter always trended east at the last minute. Lets see if it happens with this storm. In order for the City to get 3-6 inches, the storm has to bomb out over the benchmark. If it bombs out further northward ( like most of the models are showing ), this is going to be a mostly rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The models this past winter always trended east at the last minutes. Lets see if it happens with this storm. In order for the City to get 3-6 inches, the storm has to bomb out over the benchmark. If it bombs out further northward ( like most of the models are showing ), this is going to be a rain to possibly some flakes for the area. I agree totally with all of this Ant. This will be a close one, but I would not have issues watches till at least overnight tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 True and I don't mind the watch as much as I mind the amounts. The general public doesn't know the criteria for a WSW so when you mention 5 to 10" and everyone has weatherbug on their phones then people are going to think that's a forecast 100% agree. To big of a chance to bust either way on this. This afternoon or tonight would be fine to put up watch's or warnings. But either way the NWS is always questioned if they are to early or too late. Not a easy job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I agree totally with all of this Ant. This will be a close one, but I would not have issues watches till at least overnight tonight I agree with this. The models could go either way today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 At this point, its hard to rule out any one solution. Hopefully the models trend snowier at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Let's not forget, the NAM is still a complete mess.... I think we had more of a consensus yesterday than we do today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 At this point, its hard to rule out any one solution. Hopefully the models trend snowier at 12z. Look at current temperatures observed and dewpoints. They are both coming way up from 24-36 hours ago. It's going to be damn hard to get them down far enough for accumulations at the coast and in the city, even with a perfect track and intensity. Losing the cold air this early in the game does not bode well for our "would be" grand finale of snow. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 srefs are weak and dry. For the storm, hours 39-63, only .25"-.50" of precip fall in our area. Before that, about .25" falls from the 1st storm. Here is 2nd storm total: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 worth looking at.....seems like the energy dropping down from the west is really diving southward. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Look at current temperatures observed and dewpoints. They are both coming way up from 24-36 hours ago. It's going to be damn hard to get them down far enough for accumulations at the coast and in the city, even with a perfect track and intensity. Losing the cold air this early in the game does not bode well for our "would be" grand finale of snow. WX/PT If only there was a strong arctic high up north. Yesterday morning, Upton was calling for rain with a high of 45. Yesterday evening, they were calling for rain/snow mix with a high of 36. Now, they are calling for a mix with a high of 43.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 srefs are weak and dry. For the storm, hours 39-63, only .25"-.50" of precip fall in our area. Before that, about .25" falls from the 1st storm. Here is 2nd storm total: Not exactly my model of choice when it comes to QPF predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 doesn't match up too well with the 5-10 they're calling for in the watch area.. and this supposedly goes through 8 PM on Friday.. event should be wrapping up by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Look at current temperatures observed and dewpoints. They are both coming way up from 24-36 hours ago. It's going to be damn hard to get them down far enough for accumulations at the coast and in the city, even with a perfect track and intensity. Losing the cold air this early in the game does not bode well for our "would be" grand finale of snow. WX/PT Is this not the initial piece of energy thats causing this....you can clearly see the moisture getting sucked up the coast on the WV loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Not exactly my model of choice when it comes to QPF predictions. Ok. They have the best verification scores for precip in the short range (<48). Goes back and forth with euro for 1st and 2nd place. Not saying they are right in this instance but 3z srefs were 1" of precip from the storm and this new run is .25". Thats worth mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yet it shows a 10% chance of more than 8 inches of snow in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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