MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Sounds like it gets too warm for NYC at 42? Front end dump for the 'burbs? 12z was too good to be true. This run seems west and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12z was too good to be true. This run seems west and warmer. Well it's quite disappointing because the 12z ECM and 12z GFS agreed on such a monster snowstorm, and now we're seeing a trend west on some models that's going to make it hard for NYC. Who knows though, as I've said the models refused to give up their wrong north solution on the 3/24 overrunning event and never really came around till the radar was on the screen. I think this set-up is going to crush the Poconos and Catskills in all probability, but I wouldn't totally give up closer to the City either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well the 0z Euro is much less amplified than the 0z GFS...shocker! It is east a bring the low just to the east of the tip of Long Island at 60hrs. Throws back some decent QPF. Verbatim probably a moderate/significant snowfall N and W of the city after initial rain. The city itself appears too warm and by the time it cools most of the precipitation is gone. Looks like maybe a quick 1-3 on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well the 0z Euro is much less amplified than the 0z GFS...shocker! It is east a bring the low just to the east of the tip of Long Island at 60hrs. Throws back some decent QPF. Verbatim probably a moderate/significant snowfall N and W of the city after initial rain. The city itself appears too warm and by the time it cools most of the precipitation is gone. Looks like maybe a quick 1-3 on the backside. Weird to see the Euro east of the GFS-- usually, it's the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Sounds like it gets too warm for NYC at 42? Front end dump for the 'burbs? 48-54 is rain for most, 850's back over eastern PA..They crash at 60 with the backend of the ccb hitting most of the area. Its really not that far off from 12z, we just need bombogenesis a bit sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well it's quite disappointing because the 12z ECM and 12z GFS agreed on such a monster snowstorm, and now we're seeing a trend west on some models that's going to make it hard for NYC. Who knows though, as I've said the models refused to give up their wrong north solution on the 3/24 overrunning event and never really came around till the radar was on the screen. I think this set-up is going to crush the Poconos and Catskills in all probability, but I wouldn't totally give up closer to the City either. Agree with all points made. Still an open field of solutions but inland is far more likely to be crunched. I'd probably also add some of the NYC higher elevation northwest burbs such as West Milford NJ as under the gun to likely see a heavy wet snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well the 0z Euro is much less amplified than the 0z GFS...shocker! It is east a bring the low just to the east of the tip of Long Island at 60hrs. Throws back some decent QPF. Verbatim probably a moderate/significant snowfall N and W of the city after initial rain. The city itself appears too warm and by the time it cools most of the precipitation is gone. Looks like maybe a quick 1-3 on the backside. It actually sounds like the suburbs might be OK as the 0C isotherm collapses at 60 hours...at least for places to the NE of NYC like SW CT, could be a decent hit. You factor in a 1C warm bias on the Euro which has been verified across North America, and you're probably setting up for a decent snowfall ON THIS MODEL. Again, the problem is none of the models really agree at 48-60 hours as the NAM/GGEM like the one-storm idea, GFS is digging for oil in the OH Valley, and then we have the Euro compromise solution. So I guess we go to bed without the answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It actually sounds like the suburbs might be OK as the 0C isotherm collapses at 60 hours...at least for places to the NE of NYC like SW CT, could be a decent hit. You factor in a 1C warm bias on the Euro which has been verified across North America, and you're probably setting up for a decent snowfall ON THIS MODEL. Again, the problem is none of the models really agree at 48-60 hours as the NAM/GGEM like the one-storm idea, GFS is digging for oil in the OH Valley, and then we have the Euro compromise solution. So I guess we go to bed without the answers. Euro looks like 1-3 inches of snow for NYC on the backend, but Boston gets crushed with all or mostly all snow.... so this is an in-between solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro verbatim isn't a bad track, and more consistent with the 12z run. I think we suffer this run from too late of a bomb. We need the phase a bit earlier and rapid intensification to benefit from higher QPF and colder conditions. It is much different then the GFS which does all this quicker allowing the hgts to rise along the east coast and the trough to go negative to early. Solutions are all over the place, probably more clarity at 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It actually sounds like the suburbs might be OK as the 0C isotherm collapses at 60 hours...at least for places to the NE of NYC like SW CT, could be a decent hit. You factor in a 1C warm bias on the Euro which has been verified across North America, and you're probably setting up for a decent snowfall ON THIS MODEL. Again, the problem is none of the models really agree at 48-60 hours as the NAM/GGEM like the one-storm idea, GFS is digging for oil in the OH Valley, and then we have the Euro compromise solution. So I guess we go to bed without the answers. It's funny how everyone always looks for answers and microanalyzes every model run-- my theory has always been that there is no real answer until the event actually occurs-- everything before that is merely conjecture This applies to every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I still wish that this event died completely, and that the 3rd s/w would be the main player. I just felt, and still feel, that there would have been less room for error with the 3rd s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro verbatim isn't a bad track, and more consistent with the 12z run. I think we suffer this run from too late of a bomb. We need the phase a bit earlier and rapid intensification to benefit from higher QPF and colder conditions. It is much different then the GFS which does all this quicker allowing the hgts to rise along the east coast and the trough to go negative to early. Solutions are all over the place, probably more clarity at 12z tomorrow. does the nam even show the storm yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro verbatim isn't a bad track, and more consistent with the 12z run. I think we suffer this run from too late of a bomb. We need the phase a bit earlier and rapid intensification to benefit from higher QPF and colder conditions. It is much different then the GFS which does all this quicker allowing the hgts to rise along the east coast and the trough to go negative to early. Solutions are all over the place, probably more clarity at 12z tomorrow. Well, this makes it sound like both extremes are bad for different reasons. The NAM might have been the best run of the night! Who would have thought that a few hours ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I still wish that this event died completely, and that the 3rd s/w would be the main player. I just felt, and still feel, that there would have been less room for error with the 3rd s/w. When would that event hit us if it happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 does the nam even show the storm yet? Not really, it still doesn't recognize a second storm as an independent entity. It's just a product of the old storm being reenergized by the 2nd shortwave, but you don't have a new surface low forming in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well it's quite disappointing because the 12z ECM and 12z GFS agreed on such a monster snowstorm, and now we're seeing a trend west on some models that's going to make it hard for NYC. Here was the 12z GFS http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_072l.gif Well the 0z Euro is much less amplified than the 0z GFS...shocker! It is east a bring the low just to the east of the tip of Long Island at 60hrs. Throws back some decent QPF. Verbatim probably a moderate/significant snowfall N and W of the city after initial rain. The city itself appears too warm and by the time it cools most of the precipitation is gone. Looks like maybe a quick 1-3 on the backside. The models are all over the place. I think this is going to be nailed down by tomorrow night. does the nam even show the storm yet? It's getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 In NYC what you would honestly need is the EURO's track and the GFS's intensity. That would be the best chance for snow in NYC because they would benefit from the CCB and dynamics. The GFS is too amped and west, which allows for significant WAA. The EURO is late in the development/intensification of the low and fails to cool the column quick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well it's quite disappointing because the 12z ECM and 12z GFS agreed on such a monster snowstorm, and now we're seeing a trend west on some models that's going to make it hard for NYC. Who knows though, as I've said the models refused to give up their wrong north solution on the 3/24 overrunning event and never really came around till the radar was on the screen. I think this set-up is going to crush the Poconos and Catskills in all probability, but I wouldn't totally give up closer to the City either. With the last snow event we had, which the GFS was too far N with the warm air that brought me no snow, while the colder, more S NAM was correct and colder (and it did snow here like crazy)....I had TSSN. The 00z runs were colder and the 12z runs were warmer. 2 definate camps and I see this as the same deal. Last nights 00z runs were warmer, the 12z runs colder. Tuff to make a forecast when you see stuff like that. I can only use ensemble means to smooth things out from here but even then, you have to see how the individual members may be skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 also of note, dont give sh_t to your local NWS office. They dont see the Euro in time to make their forecast! With the time change, they rely more on the NCEP models. This limits their ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 also of note, dont give sh_t to your local NWS office. They dont see the Euro in time to make their forecast! With the time change, they rely more on the NCEP models. This limits their ability. Well there is nothing to criticize them for now since making a definite forecast is the blind leading the blind. Until the computer models get their act together and we start seeing the system on satellite and radar, it's going to be an impossible task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM running......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM is similar to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 6z GFS looks almost identical to 0z @ 45hr, although 6z is slightly faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ehh, whatever. I'm ready for this cold weather to end at this point honestly. The 78F on 3/18 felt pretty darn awesome. I could do without trying to get to work in the crazy soaking rain on Fri though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 WSW posted for just inland - 5 - 10 inches http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.wwus41.KOKX.html This is how confused Upton is - they release a WSW for western Union County 5 - 10 inches and this is how the forecast reads ( guess 2 light accumulations = 5 - 10) NJZ107-302015- WESTERN UNION- 445 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... TODAY MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. . THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN SNOW AND RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. FRIDAY...RAIN SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Where is the noreaster85 flood thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 WSW posted for just inland - 5 - 10 inches http://kamala.cod.ed...wus41.KOKX.html This is how confused Upton is - they release a WSW for western Union County 5 - 10 inches and this is how the forecast reads ( guess 2 light accumulations = 5 - 10) NJZ107-302015- WESTERN UNION- 445 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... TODAY MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. . THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN SNOW AND RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. FRIDAY...RAIN SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING That's no conflict at all. A winter storm watch is not a warning. Upton's forecast for western Union is for 2". The watch simply means that there is currently a possibility of a 5" to 10" snowfall, but not a forecast. If things were to stay as is, the watch would later be changed to a winter weather advisory for 2" snows. It's standard practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Although I think the WSWs were a good idea, I am kind of surprised that they all threw out moderate to heavy snowfall accumulations. Let's hope the 12z models don't come in more west or warmer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Where is the noreaster85 flood thread? Whatis wrong with you? Now your putting words in my mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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