nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Vermont house, John? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So far, we had 3 models that came in with different solutions. Before anyone jumps off Mt.Zucker, lets see what the rest of the 0z models have to say. lmfao, Anthony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 UKIE has a healthy CCB band. Here is hour 54-60. Wish I could see hours 48-54. Would probably show a big hit for interior areas. http://img850.images...36171845000.gif 48 looks warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow you can tell the energy went out of this thread real quick. ECM needs to save us. Who is chasing with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 LOL@ NoGaps-- looks like that came west too-- big hit for SE MA. Yep. Nogaps came west from the previous run. It is well east of the GFS. Wow you can tell the energy went out of this thread real quick. ECM needs to save us. Who is chasing with me? I'm going to stay up and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 0z GGEM also came west from 12z. It now has a 990 low just east of LI. Looks like a lot of rain for the area. http://www.weatherof...ast/695_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow you can tell the energy went out of this thread real quick. ECM needs to save us. Who is chasing with me? Looks like you're already looking ahead to the April 9-10 threat lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looks like you're already looking ahead to the April 9-10 threat lmao I hope we get both Alex, it would be quite stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 0z GEFS looks really nice. It is colder and well east of the op run. BM track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looks like you're already looking ahead to the April 9-10 threat lmao The trends are definitely not encouraging for NYC metro, but it's always highly likely in April that we see an interior jackpot...from BGM to GFL is looking pretty set right now. I'd love to see it crush my hometown but I am probably going to drive for it anyway, so I just hope it bombs as much as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The trends are definitely not encouraging for NYC metro, but it's always highly likely in April that we see an interior jackpot...from BGM to GFL is looking pretty set right now. I'd love to see it crush my hometown but I am probably going to drive for it anyway, so I just hope it bombs as much as possible. Doesnt the track dictate the jackpot though? I mean-- living through the 80s and early 90s-- we were just as likely to see an inland track in January and February as we are now. Back then 90% of the storms tracked inland lol. Why are the ensembles consistently to the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 2.03" qpf all snow in MGJ! I dont know if I should pissed cause we are gonna get dumped on in April or happy cause it should be one hell of a storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Doesnt the track dictate the jackpot though? I mean-- living through the 80s and early 90s-- we were just as likely to see an inland track in January and February as we are now. Back then 90% of the storms tracked inland lol. Why are the ensembles consistently to the east? The GFS ENS did trend west from 18z to 0z, but it was hard not to given how disorganized the meager 18z GEFS were. Sure, the track will dictate the jackpot zone, I just think those areas have historically done well in these set-ups and rate to continue, plus the track is inching west which means the Poconos/Catskills up to about GFL and Central VT is the sweet area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Doesnt the track dictate the jackpot though? I mean-- living through the 80s and early 90s-- we were just as likely to see an inland track in January and February as we are now. Back then 90% of the storms tracked inland lol. Why are the ensembles consistently to the east? bc the operational is awful....like most of the models ***whether they show snow or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow you can tell the energy went out of this thread real quick. ECM needs to save us. Who is chasing with me? You guys wont have to go far to see snow.. Maybe about 50 or so miles NW of the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The GFS ENS did trend west from 18z to 0z, but it was hard not to given how disorganized the meager 18z GEFS were. The kicker system to the west is probably one of the reasons why the op and the ensembles are different. The op run didn't really develop it. It had a 1000 low in the central plains. The gefs had a 997 low well east of where the op run had it. That can possibly be the reason why the gefs is well east of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You guys wont have to go far to see snow.. Maybe about 50 or so miles NW of the city.. Except I want to see big snow and all snow. I think the Poconos where we have a house or Albany where my aunt lives could do great on this storm though, and not hard to get to either place. Go snow or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Except I want to see big snow and all snow. I think the Poconos where we have a house or Albany where my aunt lives could do great on this storm though, and not hard to get to either place. Go snow or go home http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmgj Focus on hr42 to hr69. If that isnt biggest for you then I dont know what to tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kmgj Focus on hr42 to hr69. If that isnt biggest for you then I dont know what to tell you. Yeah the Hudson Valley gets destroyed on the 0z GFS...Southern VT probably does a little better esp with the elevation, but it's a great hit from SWF-BGM-ALB...that triangle gets crushed with the deformation axis, 700mb low tracks right near NYC...I'm actually surprised it relatively dryslots the Poconos as I would think they get more QPF than shown with this H7 track: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This storm is showing the same personalities as the last 3 noreasters. Wreaking absolute havoc on the models, hopefully the end result is the same, and hope the gfs moves east and the euro holds serve. If the gfs was a bit more east we would get crushed..Just some hope for us 's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This storm is showing the same personalities as the last 3 noreasters. Wreaking absolute havoc on the models, hopefully the end result is the same, and hope the gfs moves east and the euro holds serve. If the gfs was a bit more east we would get crushed..Just some hope for us 's The GFS was just outright wrong about the last storm, never figured it out until it was happening...showed the storm tracking off NJ when it ended up off VA, huge track error for a 1-day forecast. So I wouldn't worry too much about it being west as long as the Euro and its Ensembles hold ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah the Hudson Valley gets destroyed on the 0z GFS...Southern VT probably does a little better esp with the elevation, but it's a great hit from SWF-BGM-ALB...that triangle gets crushed with the deformation axis, 700mb low tracks right near NYC...I'm actually surprised it relatively dryslots the Poconos as I would think they get more QPF than shown with this H7 track: Here are some areas that get crushed on the 00z GFS MGJ-- 2.02" All Snow MSV-- 1.59" All Snow FWN-- 1.65" Mostly Snow ALB-- 2.13" All Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 last nights 00z GFS was way west over NJ. the 12z run was E. Now tonights 00z run is in between. The GFS has no clue what is going on. IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The GFS was just outright wrong about the last storm, never figured it out until it was happening...showed the storm tracking off NJ when it ended up off VA, huge track error for a 1-day forecast. So I wouldn't worry too much about it being west as long as the Euro and its Ensembles hold ground. what an awful performance that was..Tonights ens mean is way east of the op fyi, and the rest of the models track the storm offshore. And we should probly wait for the nam to get a better handle on this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 lmao, this is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 last nights 00z GFS was way west over NJ. the 12z run was E. Now tonights 00z run is in between. The GFS has no clue what is going on. IMHO. The ensemble mean has been consistent in showing a storm near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro looks good thru 36, it might be a tad west of 12z not to sure, heights are a tick higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I think our kicker has a broken foot. Yeah, lame joke, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro looks good thru 36, it might be a tad west of 12z not to sure, heights are a tick higher Sounds like it gets too warm for NYC at 42? Front end dump for the 'burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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