IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If this was a month earlier in the season, we would be measuring snow in feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 agreed, if I had my choice between the 00z GFS and a complete miss I would take the 00z GFS hands down Ah thats right..thanks for the reminder..i almost forgot about your flood fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The 00Z UKMET has surface temps. around 36 degrees Fahrenheit for the nearby suburbs just north of NYC at the height of the storm, I have a feeling this is just about game, set, and match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What do biblical April floods bring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Would rather have what NAM had then the filth the gfs just produced. Nam would get me over 60" and NYC close to 2nd place all time. I tend to doubt that. The QPF is spread over a long time period. I don't think precip intensity would be sustained for long enough for snow to accumulate, even if snow were the dominant ptype, which is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What do biblical April floods bring? Epic may flowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What do biblical April floods bring? End of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Northwest NJ and Eastern NY State absolutely annihilated at 57 hrs With what ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The 00Z UKMET has surface temps. around 36 degrees Fahrenheit for the nearby suburbs just north of NYC at the height of the storm, I have a feeling this is just about game, set, and match. Where is the surface low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Epic may flowers Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 reminds me of the big time noreaster of March 2010 with the crazy winds and heavy rain which brought the severe flooding Ah thats right..thanks for the reminder..i almost forgot about your flood fetish he went from winter mode to spring that quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If this was a month earlier in the season, we would be measuring snow in feet Not with that track lol-- if the Boxing day storm took that track we would be using the analogs about how bad Decembers result in futile winters.... remember that? We were a week away from doing that anyway lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Where is the surface low? Just to the east of LI http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2011033000®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=0&F2=none&C1=hght&VEC=none&F1=p06i&C2=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Where is the surface low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Epic may flowers Epic May allergies. I hate Spring with a passion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Now that I can deal with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Probably a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If this was a month earlier in the season, we would be measuring snow in feet Maybe not. With southeasterly mid-level flow, would probably be rain SE coastal sections and mix just inland. That said, this threat is still real. I actually like this run of the GFS. I like the big storm, high QPF signal. We can work with that. Low heights/thicknesses are not too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 00Z UKMET surface temps in degrees Celsius at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Tmagan, Post 850's please. Surface means little. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 All I said was that the storm reminds me of the big one last march...not that this will result in widespread flooding like that one did....jeeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Tmagan, Post 850's please. Surface means little. Thanks Oh, surface means a great deal especially with an onshore flow, that being said, 00Z UKMET Hour 60 850 mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The UKMET appears to have shortwave spacing issues that weaken or delay the SLP intensification and lessen the magnitude of the storm. It looks roughly like a hybrid of the NAM and GFS solutions, although that is oversimplified. Surface track looks pretty good but overall less exciting in terms of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 UKIE hour 60 850's. We need earlier though as lots of Precip done already. http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/8595/110330040841123864000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The UKMET appears to have shortwave spacing issues that weaken or delay the SLP intensification and lessen the magnitude of the storm. It looks roughly like a hybrid of the NAM and GFS solutions, although that is oversimplified. Surface track looks pretty good but overall less exciting in terms of potential. so your saying we can build the bunk beds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 UKIE has a healthy CCB band. Here is hour 54-60. Wish I could see hours 48-54. Would probably show a big hit for interior areas. http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/7779/110330040936171845000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So far, we had 3 models that came in with different solutions. Before anyone jumps off Mt.Zucker, lets see what the rest of the 0z models have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So far, we had 3 models that came in with different solutions. Before anyone jumps off Mt.Zucker, lets see what the rest of the 0z models have to say. LOL@ NoGaps-- looks like that came west too-- big hit for SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 UKIE has a healthy CCB band. Here is hour 54-60. Wish I could see hours 48-54. Would probably show a big hit for interior areas. http://img850.images...36171845000.gif That's very impressive QPF for somewhat less impressive upper levels. Seems like the Ukie is usually relatively dry, even taking into account the missing 6hr panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So far, we had 3 models that came in with different solutions. Before anyone jumps off Mt.Zucker, lets see what the rest of the 0z models have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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