H2Otown_WX Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Verbatim, the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills are the places to be on the 12z GFS, as they get nailed by both storms. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The GFS ensembles have several really wound up members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I just want 1.4" to move 2010-11 into 2nd place all-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 H500 evolution is reminding me, minus the cutoff low of JAN 1996 with the amplification. 3 noreasters this year all took the same track..I remember HM talking about how we would see a few suppressed waves of energy before the big one. And he moved his storm timeframe to April 1-5 a while back once the -NAO decided to retreat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The GFS ensembles have several really wound up members. quite a few nice hits in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I see..... 40s and rain for the city. With the cold air departing accumulating snow in NYC is beyond a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The GFS has us over 60 degrees next Monday in the warm sector. It's brief, but I'll take it. Looks chilly after that, however...How about some flurries with temps in the 30s on April 6th? I see..... 40s and rain for the city. With the cold air departing accumulating snow in NYC is beyond a long shot. Just like NYC wouldn't see any more substantial periods of freezing temperatures, right? Central Park got down to 26F last night and was below freezing from midnight to 10am this morning. I think you better keep your day job since meteorology clearly isn't your thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I see..... 40s and rain for the city. With the cold air departing accumulating snow in NYC is beyond a long shot. what a suprise...... enough with your trolling of every possible snow threat since March began. Nobody is saying that its not unlikely to snow, but the models are hinting that it might come to frution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I see..... 40s and rain for the city. With the cold air departing accumulating snow in NYC is beyond a long shot. boooo whoooo, you cant run around in your a$$ tight shorts and wife beater playing wiffleball yet. seriously, give it a rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Looks chilly after that, however...How about some flurries with temps in the 30s on April 6th? Just like NYC wouldn't see any more substantial periods of freezing temperatures, right? Central Park got down to 26F last night and was below freezing from midnight to 10am this morning. I think you better keep your day job since meteorology clearly isn't your thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 12z GFS shows a massive AK block and +PNA developing in the longer range with way below normal temperatures for the Northeast. Perhaps another shot at snow April 5-10 as HM originally mentioned....looks like he's going to nail the timing of the -EPO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Looks chilly after that, however...How about some flurries with temps in the 30s on April 6th? Just like NYC wouldn't see any more substantial periods of freezing temperatures, right? Central Park got down to 26F last night and was below freezing from midnight to 10am this morning. I think you better keep your day job since meteorology clearly isn't your thing. Just like you were going to see 6"+ last week right? In any event, the chances of accumulating snow in NYC on any given day with precip in early april are extremely low. The higher elevations in the interior will probably score well, but it's basically over for the coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Just like you were going to see 6"+ last week right? In any event, the chances of accumulating snow in NYC on any given day with precip in early april are extremely low. The higher elevations in the interior will probably score well, but it's basically over for the coastal areas. Do you even look at model runs or base everything off of climo???? Go troll elswhere. When everyone on the board is telling you to take a hike, you might want to try and listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Just like you were going to see 6"+ last week right? In any event, the chances of accumulating snow in NYC on any given day with precip in early april are extremely low. The higher elevations in the interior will probably score well, but it's basically over for the coastal areas. Much of NE NJ did see 6+, even areas with no elevation. It was easily cold enough for all snow in the suburbs. I didn't forecast 6+ for Westchester, I said 3-6" or 4-8"...I got 2.5" but my forecast verified right across the River, just needed better banding as temps were fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Interesting, Accuweather's 15 day forecast has us at basically 50's and 60's from here on out. I personally feel the snow is over, the March snow was a small chance and it happened, April is even less likely. Hope I didn't jinx anything with this post. Edit: I guess it depends on where you're located, our chances for snow here are usually lower than anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Do you even look at model runs or base everything off of climo???? Go troll elswhere. When everyone on the board is telling you to take a hike, you might want to try and listen. Some of the GFS runs are showing a very impressive closed H5 low, which is how NYC would get significant snows this late in the season. Also, the DGEX is showing colder 850s than the GFS with much of the area <-4C, plenty cold enough for snow in April, even during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Much of NE NJ did see 6+, even areas with no elevation. It was easily cold enough for all snow in the suburbs. I didn't forecast 6+ for Westchester, I said 3-6" or 4-8"...I got 2.5" but my forecast verified right across the River, just needed better banding as temps were fine. I got 2.5" total with thundersnow and thundersleet, with basically no elevation whatsoever, and I'm SW of NYC and basically right along I-95. We all know what our climo is. We also know it can snow despite climo...the world doesn't end because it snows in late March or early April. We don't need someone constantly repeating what our climo is in condescending one-liners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Do you even look at model runs or base everything off of climo???? Go troll elswhere. When everyone on the board is telling you to take a hike, you might want to try and listen. No, I go with the guys who get paid to do this and have advanced degrees. They are saying 40s and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 before yet another thread turns into a pazzo spring troll fest, the euro is out to hr 72..We'll see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I got 2.5" total with thundersnow and thundersleet, with basically no elevation whatsoever, and I'm SW of NYC and basically right along I-95. We all know what our climo is. We also know it can snow despite climo...the world doesn't end because it snows in late March or early April. We don't need someone constantly repeating what our climo is in condescending one-liners. Wow, you had as much as I, and I live at 350' well north of NYC. You must have gotten some nice banding. We did have the thundersleet here, crazy storm. Everyone knows it's unlikely for NYC to get accumulating snow in April, but this is an unusual pattern with a robust -NAO decaying, signalling a major storm event. We also have a great +PNA with a 570dm ridge axis centered over Boise ID, the classic spot for East Coast cyclogenesis. Pazzo didn't think it would get cold in NYC in late March based on previous years, but this is a different pattern with the blocking and western ridge, so we have to expect different results. Following statistics/climatology will not work all the time, there's a reason anomalies happen. No, I go with the guys who get paid to do this and have advanced degrees. They are saying 40s and rain. NWS said no accumulations for LI or the immediate Jersey suburbs in the 3/24 storm, and they got 3-6" snowfall. How do you explain that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 No, I go with the guys who get paid to do this and have advanced degrees. They are saying 40s and rain. It would be asinine to actually forecast snow at this point. We all know that snow is unlikely, but since we love weather and snow, it's worth tracking--especially considering most of the board just had accumulating snow less than a week ago. If there is a time to defy climo, it's when you have a tucked in, closed off 500mb low to the south of you, and that has some (though obviously not likely), possibility of happening. We all know what our climo is. We just don't like your tone. Your posts come across the fact that since you "know climo", that you are clearly above us, and all people who are tracking the weather are just stupid, since we all know what the end result will be, anyway. You come across as thinking that you're "too good" to track weather, and we're "too stupid" to track weather. Clearly, we defied climo last Wednesday, and hopefully, though obviously not likely, we can do it again. We don't need your obnoxious posts to put down the people who actually have a desire to track the weather, especially considering you haven't exactly shown many meteorological contributions yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Wow, you had as much as I, and I live at 350' well north of NYC. You must have gotten some nice banding. We did have the thundersleet here, crazy storm. Everyone knows it's unlikely for NYC to get accumulating snow in April, but this is an unusual pattern with a robust -NAO decaying, signalling a major storm event. We also have a great +PNA with a 570dm ridge axis centered over Boise ID, the classic spot for East Coast cyclogenesis. Pazzo didn't think it would get cold in NYC in late March based on previous years, but this is a different pattern with the blocking and western ridge, so we have to expect different results. Following statistics/climatology will not work all the time, there's a reason anomalies happen. NWS said no accumulations for LI or the immediate Jersey suburbs in the 3/24 storm, and they got 3-6" snowfall. How do you explain that? 2 of my 2.5" occurred with the overrunning on Tuesday night--we did get in on some banding. The .5 was from the thundersnow and thundersleet, along with that last band that redeveloped overnight on Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 No, I go with the guys who get paid to do this and have advanced degrees. They are saying 40s and rain. Then why even bother posting here.....you never add anything to the discussion. All you do is troll and talk about how you want the warmer weather to come. It could probably be snowing heavily and 28 degrees in the park and you would be saying its rain and 36 in midtown. Nobody gives a crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It would be asinine to actually forecast snow at this point. We all know that snow is unlikely, but since we love weather and snow, it's worth tracking--especially considering most of the board just had accumulating snow less than a week ago. If there is a time to defy climo, it's when you have a tucked in, closed off 500mb low to the south of you, and that has some (though obviously not likely), possibility of happening. We all know what our climo is. We just don't like your tone. Your posts come across the fact that since you "know climo", that you are clearly above us, and all people who are tracking the weather are just stupid, since we all know what the end result will be, anyway. You come across as thinking that you're "too good" to track weather, and we're "too stupid" to track weather. Clearly, we defied climo last Wednesday, and hopefully, though obviously not likely, we can do it again. We don't need your obnoxious posts to put down the people who actually have a desire to track the weather, especially considering you haven't exactly shown many meteorological contributions yourself. If everything always happened according to climo there would never ever be a need for weather forecasts. Climo is nothing but a dumbing down of averages. It's not science-- it's elementary school math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Just like you were going to see 6"+ last week right? In any event, the chances of accumulating snow in NYC on any given day with precip in early april are extremely low. The higher elevations in the interior will probably score well, but it's basically over for the coastal areas. I think you've beat this point to death over and over so much its re-incarnated itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Interesting, Accuweather's 15 day forecast has us at basically 50's and 60's from here on out. I personally feel the snow is over, the March snow was a small chance and it happened, April is even less likely. Hope I didn't jinx anything with this post. Edit: I guess it depends on where you're located, our chances for snow here are usually lower than anywhere else. I don't know how old you are.... but starting in 1982, I've seen 9 accumulating snowfalls in April, and 3 of those were warning events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It would be asinine to actually forecast snow at this point. We all know that snow is unlikely, but since we love weather and snow, it's worth tracking--especially considering most of the board just had accumulating snow less than a week ago. If there is a time to defy climo, it's when you have a tucked in, closed off 500mb low to the south of you, and that has some (though obviously not likely), possibility of happening. We all know what our climo is. We just don't like your tone. Your posts come across the fact that since you "know climo", that you are clearly above us, and all people who are tracking the weather are just stupid, since we all know what the end result will be, anyway. You come across as thinking that you're "too good" to track weather, and we're "too stupid" to track weather. Clearly, we defied climo last Wednesday, and hopefully, though obviously not likely, we can do it again. We don't need your obnoxious posts to put down the people who actually have a desire to track the weather, especially considering you haven't exactly shown many meteorological contributions yourself. I find the report button works well, although apparantly not well enough. I may make some bad judgement calls and perhaps I've gone overboard with a few things but at least I don't go out trolling a legit threat with no scientific reasoning other than climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Euro has .49" of rain for NYC thru Friday 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 4/6/82 10" NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Just like you were going to see 6"+ last week right? In any event, the chances of accumulating snow in NYC on any given day with precip in early april are extremely low. The higher elevations in the interior will probably score well, but it's basically over for the coastal areas. This is a fallacy-- the sea surface temps are colder now than they were in January. The other problem is the chances of accumulating snow on any given day in the entire winter is VERY LOW. This applies to December, January and February. It's the reason why we don't forecast individual days.... we forecast patterns. See above post for why it's not "over" until you get to the latest accumulating snowfall. For me, that's April 19-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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