Manny Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Seems like the NAM might still have trouble with interaction between the multiple shortwaves. Closer though, but bombs out too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Surely a step in the right direction, but its still far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Great for coastal Maine, If you believe the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Great for coastal Maine, If you believe the NAM? And for Boston. 12"+ for them on NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Great for coastal Maine, If you believe the NAM? Understatement E. NE gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Huge step in the right direction by the NAM. Look for it to continue to show development further and further south on subsequent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Huge step in the right direction by the NAM. Look for it to continue to show development further and further south on subsequent runs West probably -- we'll have to see how much farther south it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Seems like the NAM might still have trouble with interaction between the multiple shortwaves. Closer though, but bombs out too late. Yup. And it never redevelops a new SLP between the first and second shortwaves, which is very suspicious IMO. The first low center that forms in response to the 1st shortwave just meanders off the east coast for two days. It's much more likely this first surface system slides east and dissipates over the Atlantic before a new center forms in response to the sharpening 2nd wave somewhere in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 As per the ECMWF, the best model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yup. And it never redevelops a new SLP between the first and second shortwaves, which is very suspicious IMO. The first low center that forms in response to the 1st shortwave just meanders off the east coast for two days. It's much more likely this first surface system slides east and dissipates over the Atlantic before a new center forms in response to the sharpening 2nd wave somewhere in the SE. Nice explanation almost looks like the energy in the SE merges with the remnant low that stalls off our coast . When meanwhile a new center should have been forming off the SE coast. The Nam certainly wont be leading the way for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I just looked at the NAM clown maps and even with the NAM too far NE it gives Suffolk County 6-8" of snow and even Western Nassau gets 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Lee Goldberg saying that it's going to stay in the 30s all day Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'd discount the entire 00Z NAM. 0Z RGEM has the surface low at Wilmington, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Nice explanation almost looks like the energy in the SE merges with the remnant low that stalls off our coast . When meanwhile a new center should have been forming off the SE coast. The Nam certainly wont be leading the way for this storm I just think the NAM is totally missing the synoptic evolution of this storm; it is basically using a reinvigorated old low instead of forming an entirely new system much farther south along the boundary. That low just sits around on the NAM off the Northeast Coast and then suddenly blows up...this doesn't agree with any of the globals which seem to be showing more defined separation between the systems. In a sense, the NAM is showing a scenario much like the 1/12 storm, where we had a dying Gulf Low that came to life when a shortwave from the OH Valley moved in, but in this case it seems to be erroneous because none of the other guidance has a similar development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Discount all models that don't bury us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Good seeing the entire crew here for the 00z drama...one of the last ones this year. With that in mind, where is metfan when we need him with the South African model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Discount all models that don't bury us. This We need to create a new model-- let's call it the Tristate Model Suite-- TMS runs every hour on the hour and always gives us a foot plus of snow one day every week from December through April (preferably with lots of thunder and lightning) and on the days it's not snowing it's brutally cold. In the spring we get severe weather outbreaks every day between 4 PM and 9 PM. Then in the summer it's over 90 every day with 100 once a week and we get hit with a TS/Hurricane once a week from August through October. Such is the output of the TMS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Here's the RGEM at 48 hours...not all that dissimilar to the 12 or 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Good seeing the entire crew here for the 00z drama...one of the last ones this year. With that in mind, where is metfan when we need him with the South African model? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Discount all models that don't bury us. Agreed. Those ones are clearly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The 12Z UKMET at 72 hours isn't looking so bad after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Good seeing the entire crew here for the 00z drama...one of the last ones this year. With that in mind, where is metfan when we need him with the South African model? I need to get ready for when he posts the KMA by rotating my monitor upside down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I need to get ready for when he posts the KMA by rotating my monitor upside down. I was wearing a neck brace for two weeks after Dec 26 trying to interpret what the model was saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Metfan is probably past his 5 post limit. He'll post at 12:01am after GFS screws us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I was wearing a neck brace for two weeks after Dec 26 trying to interpret what the model was saying (3/29/2011 11:31:23 PM) Me: lol John is calling for you in the model thread (3/29/2011 11:31:34 PM) Ant: Tell him I can't post tonight (3/29/2011 11:31:38 PM) Ant: im still 5 posted (3/29/2011 11:31:42 PM) Ant: and I have no more posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Metfan is probably past his 5 post limit. He'll post at 12:01am after GFS screws us. thats the spirit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'd discount the entire 00Z NAM. 0Z RGEM has the surface low at Wilmington, NC. I agree. I think the RGEM looks much more reasonable. Assuming the shortwave doesn't end up being much weaker with less vorticity, there really should be a second area of low pressure to the downstream side of the trof (upper divergence area). But I'm not ready to discount the basic idea that the eventual coastal low might slide too far east due to wave interference and timing issues. That could be the viable NAM signal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I agree. I think the RGEM looks much more reasonable. Assuming the shortwave doesn't end up being much weaker with less vorticity, there really should be a second area of low pressure to the downstream side of the trof (upper divergence area). But I'm not ready to discount the basic idea that the eventual coastal low might slide too far east due to wave interference and timing issues. That could be the viable NAM signal here. Ukmet looks good too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 thats the spirit Or he could post right now. Just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I agree. I think the RGEM looks much more reasonable. Assuming the shortwave doesn't end up being much weaker with less vorticity, there really should be a second area of low pressure to the downstream side of the trof (upper divergence area). But I'm not ready to discount the basic idea that the eventual coastal low might slide too far east due to wave interference and timing issues. That could be the viable NAM signal here. I remain much more concerned about this going east than I am about it going west. The RGEM actually looks more similar to the 12z GFS height fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.