jrodd321 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It was one run....hardly a trend at this point And it's 18z, don't really know why people are saying this is a step back. Let's see what 00z says tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 we need an earlier H5 close off, euro had it occurring over nyc, this run is in new england. Yep exactly. This run is by no means a disaster, especially considering it is the 18z GFS. It just closes off too late for our area. It still at least has a very potent storm. With the deep trough in the eastern US and all the energy in the base of the trough, I don't think it would be unheard of if the storm closed off quick enough to benefit the NYC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z euro ensembles are east of operational and similar strength. No reason to worry yet over 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 To my knowledge ..ECM ensemble means are the better performing of all the models... Including outperforming the OP ECM.... I would not lose sleep over an off hour run ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Even if the GFS showed another "perfect snow bomb" the chances of it holding serve on the next 8+ runs between now and the onset of precip are virtually zero. I'm just happy to see it doesn't look like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It was one run....hardly a trend at this point Please point out for me where I used the word "trend" in my post. We have seen plenty of warm solutions over the past days and today as well. I think the warm solutions are the more plausible solution given the marginal surface temps and the tenuous setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I looked at the NCEP 20th Century reanalysis for 3 large snowstorms in the late 1800s and early 1900s - Apr 13, 1875; Apr 3, 1915; and Apr 9, 1917. All three fit the typical pattern that you mention with troughs between the West Coast and the Rockies and a ridge in between. This pattern is truly anomalous! Wow-- are you serious? Apr 3, 1915 was about as anomalous as you can get-- with nearly 20" in Philly! What do you think of the 18z GFS? The funny thing is it had a cold bias all winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The thing that scares me about this storm is that the AO is + and there is no blocking. We need either a perfect track or great dynamics to have an all snow event for the coast. Hopefully the ensembles are much better than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z euro ensembles are east of operational and similar strength. No reason to worry yet over 18z GFS. Correct-- both the EC ensembles and the GEFS have been better than the OP runs from 48 hours and further out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The ensembles will be interesting for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 And it's 18z, don't really know why people are saying this is a step back. Let's see what 00z says tonight. I bet u were one of the people who jumped on the 18z the other day when it first started showing a snowstorm...I really hate hearing, well it's the 18z so who cares or its the 6z so who cares. A better argument would be that it's only one run. There's def a chance for some history here...it's just gonna be hard to do. Lots more time left for these models, which have been awful this year, to start coming to solid conclusion. Hopefully a snowy one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Please point out for me where I used the word "trend" in my post. We have seen plenty of warm solutions over the past days and today as well. I think the warm solutions are the more plausible solution given the marginal surface temps and the tenuous setup. I think you took what I said out of context. In any event, why do you think its more plausible other than cliimo? Plenty of mets on here have already pointed out how unique a setup this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 We won't have a definitive storm solution until at least 0z runs tomorrow night and even Thursday 12z runs. People should know that. Especially this time of year with such a delicate scenario needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z NOGAPS well east, a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z NOGAPS well east, a scraper. Well, that's actually some good news. if nothing else, this ensures a huge turnout for the 0z runs tonight. The GEFS should be interesting also-- that comes out in less than an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Well, that's actually some good news. if nothing else, this ensures a huge turnout for the 0z runs tonight. The GEFS should be interesting also-- that comes out in less than an hour. probly the biggest 00z runs until next year and we still need the nam to show the storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z NOGAPS well east, a scraper. exactly where we want a model to be at this stage with a known progressive bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 exactly where we want a model to be at this stage with a known progressive bias At this point, I wouldn't mind it tracking over Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The thing that scares me about this storm is that the AO is + and there is no blocking. We need either a perfect track or great dynamics to have an all snow event for the coast. Hopefully the ensembles are much better than the op. No cold high to the north is also troublesome. As you said, it will be all about dynamics. We need the storm to bomb out in time. We certainly have a shot, but everything has to go just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Wow-- are you serious? Apr 3, 1915 was about as anomalous as you can get-- with nearly 20" in Philly! What do you think of the 18z GFS? The funny thing is it had a cold bias all winter lol. Calm down and re-read what he wrote. The general pattern across the country was typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z GFS actually bring .25" QPF up to Staten Island through 48 hours with snow from the first event..it occurs mostly at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Lol, nothing at all for the big show on the 18z GFS ensembles. Way less amplified than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Calm down and re-read what he wrote. The general pattern across the country was typical. He said: I looked at the NCEP 20th Century reanalysis for 3 large snowstorms in the late 1800s and early 1900s - Apr 13, 1875; Apr 3, 1915; and Apr 9, 1917. All three fit the typical pattern that you mention with troughs between the West Coast and the Rockies and a ridge in between. This pattern is truly anomalous! No he said the pattern "is truly anomalous"-- the "typical" reference was for the type of pattern HM mentioned, which is truly anomalous for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Lol, nothing at all for the big show on the 18z GFS ensembles. Way less amplified than the 12z run. So much further east than the OP? Nice to see the 18z GFS up to it's usual tricks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Lol, nothing at all for the big show on the 18z GFS ensembles. Way less amplified than the 12z run. Lol. It has a weaker storm way east at 72. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I looked at the NCEP 20th Century reanalysis for 3 large snowstorms in the late 1800s and early 1900s - Apr 13, 1875; Apr 3, 1915; and Apr 9, 1917. All three fit the typical pattern that you mention with troughs between the West Coast and the Rockies and a ridge in between. This pattern is truly anomalous! No he said the pattern "is truly anomalous"-- the "typical" reference was for the type of pattern HM mentioned, which is truly anomalous for this time of year. No I believe he meant the pattern for those three historical storms reflected the typical spring pattern that HM discussed. The pattern we are in at present is truly anomalous for this time of year, esp since it differed from the pattern in which those three storms occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I texted this to earthlight earlier that I would be shocked if the kicker didn't at least have some sort of impact. I'm much more worried about a storm going OTS or being a graze because of interference from the kicker than I am worried about an all-rain event/too far west track, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 No I believe he meant the pattern for those three historical storms reflected the typical spring pattern that HM discussed. The pattern we are in at present is truly anomalous for this time of year, esp since it differed from the pattern in which those three storms occurred. Well, we should ask him lol-- what he said, I read to mean that it's the same general kind of pattern we're in now. DT just issued his map and he's calling for an 4/97 type HECS for New England, which is what this storm seems to be looking like. For our area, he has us in 60% rain 40% snow with "some" accumulations possible. The Poconos are in 3-8" and N NJ in 6-12" so it looks like the focus is further northeast, over SNE. If this ends up like 4/97 for us it would be like 1-3 inches of snow... with heavier snow to our south and our north. Of course analog "clones" do not occur lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Well, the 12z runs were great as well as the ensembles. I think the 18z GFS run just shows the volatility of such a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Well, we should ask him lol-- what he said, I read to mean that it's the same general kind of pattern we're in now. DT just issued his map and he's calling for an 4/97 type HECS for New England, which is what this storm seems to be looking like. For our area, he has us in 60% rain 40% snow with "some" accumulations possible. The Poconos are in 3-8" and N NJ in 6-12" so it looks like the focus is further northeast, over SNE. If this ends up like 4/97 for us it would be like 1-3 inches of snow... with heavier snow to our south and our north. Of course analog "clones" do not occur lol. Alex, how about if ECMWF is right, April '97 100 miles S? All depends where the H5 can close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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