A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 No. Accupro snow maps for EURO model show 1"+ of qpf as snow for NYC, SWCT, Northern Queens. What does it have for JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What does it have for JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Through 42hrs it looks to me like the NAM is making a move towards the model consensus by keying on the 2nd (of 3) shortwaves. Good sign IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 how much for philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I don't consider a 6 inch snowfall historic-- maybe in NYC with it's UHI. But not outside the urban areas. There have only been seven April 6" storms in NYC's history and only one in the last 67 years. 6/6/1982 9.6" 4/5/1944 6.5" 4/6-7/1938 6.4" 4/1/1924 8.5" 4/8-9/1917 6.5" 4/3-4/1915 10.2" 4/12-14/1875 10.0" I would say 6" would be fairly historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 There have only been seven April 6" storms in NYC's history and only one in the last 67 years. 6/6/1982 9.6" 4/5/1944 6.5" 4/6-7/1938 6.4" 4/1/1924 8.5" 4/8-9/1917 6.5" 4/3-4/1915 10.2" 4/12-14/1875 10.0" I would say 6" would be fairly historic. Yeah... the last one in NYC was 4/1982-- but here on Long Island, we also got 8" in 4/2003 and 6" in 4/1996 (with Upton getting 13" in that one.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 how much for philly? Probably more than us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 lol 18Z NAM is resetting back to March 1st again.. that must be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 BTW was that storm in 1875 a three day snowstorm? 4/12-14..... wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 NAM looks much more amplified than its prior run but I'm not sure its ready to join the consensus yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 lol 18Z NAM is resetting back to March 1st again.. that must be a good sign. I'd like to go back to Feb 1 and have a do over of the last two months with the pattern we have right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Although NAM might not be there yet, I definitely notice some encouraging signs. The energy seems to dig more and the hgts along the EC seem to respond. The trough although it still might remain open to long, seems to be heading in the right direction. If we get the more negative tilt, the energy can come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 upton WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THICKNESSES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...AND THUS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN SOME SPOTS. TEMPS ARE STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL TREK EAST...THEN NORTHEAST...PUSHING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY WENT WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS MAIN AREA OF LIFT HEADS OUT TO SEA...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW. AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE...WENT WITH SNOW INLAND...AND RAIN AT THE COAST. LITTLE...IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. H3 JET ENCIRCLING ABOUT 2/3 OF THE GLOBE AROUND 30N AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE NRN PACIFIC...WILL DIG INTO THE SERN CONUS AND ATTEMPT TO SPAWN A SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. 12Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A CONSENSUS...DEVELOPING DEEP LOW PRES SOMEWHERE S OF LI THU NIGHT AND TRACKING THE FEATURE NEWD OVER THE ATLANTIC ON FRI. ALPS SHOWS A DISTINCT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THE SREF ENSEMBLES. GFS ENSEMBLES PROG A MORE MERIDIONAL SOLN...WHILE THE SREF IS FLATTER. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS...ECMWF...GEM AND UKMET. THE FCST IS THEREFORE BASED ON A DEEP LOW IMPACTING THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI. FROM THERE...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE EXACT TRACK. RELATIVE TO MONTAUK AT 12Z FRI...SOLNS RANGE FROM ABOUT 100 MILES S PER THE 12Z ECMWF TO 270 MILES SSE PER THE GEM. THE GFS IS 135 SE. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST TRACK WILL BE MAINLY A RAIN STORM ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE ERN TRACKS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. FOR NOW...FCST INDICATES MAINLY RASN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS NWRN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO THE PCPN...WIND WILL BE A SERIOUS ISSUE IF THE STORM EVOLVES AS PROGGED. BL WINDS CRANK UP TO ABOUT 50KT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN 60 MPH NE WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE LOW...BACKING TO THE NNW AS THE LOW PASSES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 If you had to quantify it, what would you consider historic for early April-- let's say, a once in 10 year event? In that case, 6 inches may well be historic because (using my example) on the south shore of Long Island, I've seen 3 6 inch snowfalls in the past 30 years. It's different for every location. And you could exactly calculate design storms like 10-year, 50- year, and 100-year wherever historical data is available. Just off the top of head for 10-year storms, I'd say 2" at NYC, 4" for nearby suburbs out to, say, HPN and MMU, and 6" for more distant NW suburbs like FWN, SWF, DXR. Above 500ft is probably greater. I don't know LI climatology very well. I'd guess you've been a little lucky with April snowfalls but surely something that has happened only a few times in 30 years is pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I just went back and looked at the 12z GFS at 500mb for the same time frame as the current NAM run. Is it just me or is the timing of the last S/W much quicker with the GFS which is allowing it to catch up to the S/W and phase? On the NAM it's more 3 distinct pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 From 41 to 63, the 1st storm barely moves, and not allowing the height field to build along the coast. Weird scenario, considering the low isn't even closed off on H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ski resorts are loving this. Camelback in the Poconos still will be open this coming weekend. Must be some awesome late season conditions out there. After getting 18" last week, they may get hammered again Friday, making this the snowiest 2 week period of the winter for the Poconos. http://www.skicamelback.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 it probably wont stick in that case.... I think it was March 2009, we had a snow squall when it was like upper 40s and low 50s-- even down to ACY. March 1, 2008. That was incredible. Looking at records it appears the world record for warmest temperature recorded during a snowfall was actually 47 degrees at La Guardia Airport, but I don't think it was from that event, and it's possible some places even exceeded that temperature while snow was falling. In other news: So glad to see agreement between the GFS, Euro, and GGEM on a big storm. Even though we will probably lose a good amount of QPF to low ratios and rain/sleet at the start, if those model runs came to fruition we would probably have a pretty historic snowstorm for April standards. Probably NYC's biggest since 1982, and I consider any storm 6 inches or greater in April historic for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Upton pointed out the wind threat with this storm-- having 60 mph + gusty winds is something we haven't seen in a noreaster since the Dec 26 storm-- if that happens with a very wet snow, it will be power outages galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro ensemble mean Euro ensembles almost directly over the BM...potent too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Still there through 66... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 March 1, 2008. That was incredible. Looking at records it appears the world record for warmest temperature recorded during a snowfall was actually 47 degrees at La Guardia Airport, but I don't think it was from that event, and it's possible some places even exceeded that temperature while snow was falling. In other news: So glad to see agreement between the GFS, Euro, and GGEM on a big storm. Even though we will probably lose a good amount of QPF to low ratios and rain/sleet at the start, if those model runs came to fruition we would probably have a pretty historic snowstorm for April standards. Wow-- I've always wanted to know that! Thanks! Where do you get records like that lol? I remember ACY was like 51 and Allentown was 47 when they were under a heavy snowshower that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm extremely happy the heaviest QPF comes in between midnight and 9 am..... if this was during the day we'd have major boundary layer issues. We still need that further east track. Funny, if this was January, that western track would have been just fine-- ordinarily, a track 100 miles south of Montauk is actually really good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ353 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2011DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-302000-NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-353 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2011THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERNDELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NORTHERN NEWJERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.THE CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT FROM A NOR`EASTER AREINCREASING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURESTRUCTURE THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE MARGINAL FOR SNOW, THE EXACTEFFECTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEPRECIPITATION INTENSITY. EAST OF THE SNOW AREA HEAVY RAIN ISPOSSIBLE AND WOULD CAUSE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS WELL AS THEPOSSIBILITY OF STREAM AND SMALLER RIVER FLOODING. STRONG WINDS AREALSO POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yeah... the last one in NYC was 4/1982-- but here on Long Island, we also got 8" in 4/2003 and 6" in 4/1996 (with Upton getting 13" in that one.) April Snowfalls in Monmouth County going back to 1990: 4/7/03: 6" 4/8-9/00: 2" 4/18/97: T 4/1/97: 4" 4/9-10/96: 8" I'd put T-2" in the run of the mill category, 3-5" significant, and 6"+ major, and 8"+ historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ski resorts are loving this. Camelback in the Poconos still will be open this coming weekend. Must be some awesome late season conditions out there. After getting 18" last week, they may get hammered again Friday, making this the snowiest 2 week period of the winter for the Poconos. http://www.skicamelback.com/ They got 18" last week? Wow, I thought 11 inches is what the Poconos got out of the storm where we got 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 They got 18" last week? Wow, I thought 11 inches is what the Poconos got out of the storm where we got 2-3" Yeah, not sure what elevation they take their measurements, but the summit of the resort is almost 2200', one of the highest points in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 April Snowfalls in Monmouth County going back to 1990: 4/7/03: 6" 4/8-9/00: 2" 4/18/97: T 4/1/97: 4" 4/9-10/96: 8" I'd put T-2" in the run of the mill category, 3-5" significant, and 6"+ major, and 8"+ historic. Im wondering how much of the rarity of significant early April snowfalls in NYC is due to UHI. There was a really sharp gradient in 4/1996 and 4/2003 with all areas just outside of the city picking up much more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 One of the strangest model evolutions I've ever seen on this NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Wow-- I've always wanted to know that! Thanks! Where do you get records like that lol? I remember ACY was like 51 and Allentown was 47 when they were under a heavy snowshower that day. To be honest I just searched on google lol, so I don't know how accurate it is. But it came up on multiple sources, including this one: http://www.stormforce31.com/?p=27 and this one: http://pages.slu.edu/org/weather/dec.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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