earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The GFS now has the first storm /87 hrs/ north and west (and wet)...and the second system is much stronger, developing off the SE coast at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 980 over Martha's Vineyard at 114 hours..may be some back end snow in some areas but the airmass is atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yeah the CCB really develops at 117..absolute monster..looks like 976mb over Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 980 over Martha's Vineyard at 114 hours..may be some back end snow in some areas but the airmass is atrocious. That lead storm at 84 hours, ruined it. Could just be the GFS mishandling the multiple shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 980 over Martha's Vineyard at 114 hours..may be some back end snow in some areas but the airmass is atrocious. Looks like some snow for the NW suburbs at 90....0C line up to about NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Looks like some snow for the NW suburbs at 90....0C line up to about NYC. Yes it's still going at 120...6 hr QPF is 0.25" over Connecticut. Interior New England gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 That lead storm at 84 hours, ruined it. Could just be the GFS mishandling the multiple shortwaves. There's not enough separation between the two shortwaves....looking at H5, you'd think we have a monster brewing down south a la March 93, but there's just a weak surface reflection because the baroclinic zone is depleted from Storm #1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 This is exciting, to be honest. If we can ditch the first shortwave which is likely overdone given the H5 chart...we could be in for a real doozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The earlier development on the GFS of an initial LP really screws us over, hopefully it is just mishandling the shortwaves in this complex pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yes it's still going at 120...6 hr QPF is 0.25" over Connecticut. Interior New England gets hammered. Looks like a huge hit for N CT, but it gets warm for NYC metro because the low is too far tucked into the coast and never really bombs out. Could be a bigger threat, especially up here, if we see slightly earlier development from the coastal and it's a little farther offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Run your mouse through the hours and watch the shortwave come roaring out of Central Canada, man that's classic. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 gfs looks weird at 500mb and 850mb to me. im not good enough to tell wtf its doing and wether or not its wrong but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 This is exciting, to be honest. If we can ditch the first shortwave which is likely overdone given the H5 chart...we could be in for a real doozy NYC metro changes back to snow and picks up some light accumulations at 114 and 120 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Verbatim, the Berkshires are the place to be on the 12z GFS, as they get nailed by both storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The GFS actually moved closer to the idea that the SREF was showing of more separation between the shortwaves. The 12z GFS has more spacing than 0z but it's not as much as the SREF. 0z 12z SREF9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Stormvista maps have about 2" of snow from the first system in NE NJ and SE NY before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The GFS actually moved closer to the idea that the SREF was showing of more separation between the shortwaves. The GFS has more spacing but it's not as much as the SREF. Yeah it surprised me. It's closing in on the upper air pattern of some of those ARW members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Stormvista maps have about 2" of snow from the first system in NE NJ and SE NY before changeover. I'll take it John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 is that a 970mb east of boston? on my phone, but sign me up for that 500mb chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yeah it surprised me. It's closing in on the upper air pattern of some of those ARW members. I think as the energy is getting closer to the West Coast now that the models may be starting to get a better handle on the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The GFS has us over 60 degrees next Monday in the warm sector. It's brief, but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 UKMET has upper 960's LP in GOMaine at 120....not sure how it evolves before hand as at 96, there is a LP over the OV and weak LP reflection along the SE coast... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=6&carte=1021&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 NOGAPS is a MASSIVE hit for NYC. 850's below 0 the entire time. 984mb low south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 UKMET has a more amplified ridge from AK into western Canada than the GFS. The 540 dm line reaches well into northern British Columbia at 96 hours. UKMET has upper 960's LP in GOMaine at 120....not sure how it evolves before hand as at 96, there is a LP over the OV and weak LP reflection along the SE coast... http://www.meteociel...=1021&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 NOGAPS is a MASSIVE hit for NYC. 850's below 0 the entire time. 984mb low south of LI. link, I don't see the 12z run out on e-wall yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 12z ggem is a disorganized mess. Its got the 84 hour storm out to sea and then never consolidates the energy to produce a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 UKMET at 108 hours is below. I agree it hasn't been very good with East Coast cyclogenesis this year, and has a bias of overdoing amplification of upper troughs and deepening of sfc lows. However, I think it's notable that the UKMET has shown bombogenesis in the eastern US on Fri for 5 straight runs, though it has varied on the location. FWIW the high resolution UKMET maps show the low between 955 and 960 mb (hard to see all the isobars because they are ridiculously tightly packed) at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 link, I don't see the 12z run out on e-wall yet? Here you go since the site is back up Would not want to let earthlight down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 NOGAPS is a MASSIVE hit for NYC. 850's below 0 the entire time. 984mb low south of LI. Good.... looking forward to my first accumulating April snow since 2006! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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