earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Climo is only an average of the past. Model guidance is guidance for the future. And 72 hours out a few of the best models are showing a setup conducive to heavy snow and moderate accumulations. The end. Thank you for your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I guess one could make the argument we are due for an accumulating april snowfall. Most of the big ones seem to have came predominantly before 1950. Yup. In my lifetime I've seen several 2"+ in April in the Hudson Highlands but can remember only a few at NYC. It's very, very difficult to achieve, even when the setup looks phenomenal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 No, I go with the guys who get paid to do this and have advanced degrees. They are saying 40s and rain. here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Post #78 on this forum. 2:05pm yesterday. That post doesn't say that I don't look it models. It says I generally defer to the analysis of the professionals, as I am not one. I still look at the models, but I don't claim to be some expert in interpreting them. Perhaps you should look up the word "humility." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 here you go Heh... I guess he didn't see this from Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli: "My NYC - Boston Friends... Heavy Wet Snow on the way later this week. And may be a lot!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Just for fun, the CRAS actually has a reasonable solution this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 10 biggest April snowstorms in New York City .1) April 3, 1915 - 10 inches 2) April 13, 1875 - 10 inches 3) April 6, 1982 - 9.6 inches 4) April 1, 1924 - 8.5 inches 5) April 5, 1944 - 6.5 inches 6) April 9, 1917 - 6.4 inches 7) April 8, 1956 - 4.2 inches 8) April 7, 2003 - 4.0 inches 9) April 18, 1887 - 3 inches 10) April 25, 1875 - 3 inches Biggest snowstorms... 10.2" 3-4th 1915 10.0" 13th 1875 9.6" 6th 1982 8.5" 1st 1924 6.5" 8-9th 1917 6.5" 5th 1944 6.4" 6-7th 1938 5.0" 9th 1907 4.2" 8th 1956 4.0" 7th 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Climo is only an average of the past. Model guidance is guidance for the future. And 72 hours out a few of the best models are showing a setup conducive to heavy snow and moderate accumulations. The end. Thank you for your time. This is true. But consider how often the models have and/or would have shown a setup this good (or better) throughout the years in April, if modern meteorological models existed for the past 100 years. Modeled blizzards are relatively common in April. Actual blizzards are rare. This is true in January. But the disparity increases dramatically in April. That's the value of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Climo is only an average of the past. Model guidance is guidance for the future. And 72 hours out a few of the best models are showing a setup conducive to heavy snow and moderate accumulations. The end. Thank you for your time. A thorough analysis of the past is imperative for calculating the probability of future outcomes. This is true of all temporal-based systems without exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The question I asked was "Noreaster85, on 28 March 2011 - 02:01 PM, said: Do you even look at model runs or base everything off of climo???? Go troll elswhere. When everyone on the board is telling you to take a hike, you might want to try and listen. and the response was pazzo83, on 28 March 2011 - 02:05 PM, said: No, I go with the guys who get paid to do this and have advanced degrees. They are saying 40s and rain. Now back to your regular scheduled programming......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The question I asked was "Noreaster85, on 28 March 2011 - 02:01 PM, said: Do you even look at model runs or base everything off of climo???? Go troll elswhere. When everyone on the board is telling you to take a hike, you might want to try and listen. and the response was pazzo83, on 28 March 2011 - 02:05 PM, said: No, I go with the guys who get paid to do this and have advanced degrees. They are saying 40s and rain. Now back to your regular scheduled programming......... Apparently the nuances in the English language are beyond you. By virtue of participating in threads such as this I look at the models. End. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 A thorough analysis of the past is imperative for calculating the probability of future outcomes. This is true of all temporal-based systems without exception. Okay, but you can't say that because this happened in the past x times, this setup is any less than what is being shown. We have thoroughly analyzed the guidance. It could have been 90 degrees on April 1st for 100 years straight. But the best guidance is showing a snowstorm right now. That can't just be ignored. The eventual outcome remains uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Anybody have the clown map from the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 So, how bout thaT storm threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Apparently the nuances in the English language are beyond you. By virtue of participating in threads such as this I look at the models. End. Just a kind request, can you guys drop the argument? I understand both sides so take it to PM if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Okay, but you can't say that because this happened in the past x times, this setup is any less than what is being shown. We have thoroughly analyzed the guidance. It could have been 90 degrees on April 1st for 100 years straight. But the best guidance is showing a snowstorm right now. That can't just be ignored. The eventual outcome remains uncertain. Agreed, but interpretation of the guidance has to be filtered through lens of climo, so to speak, especially with respect to snow in April in coastal areas. It appears the chances of snow in NYC are increasing that notwithstanding, so let's see how this plays out. Noreaster85 do us all a favor and just don't address me or refer to me again. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I knew it was time to get excited when you posted your "mother of god" post before. This sounds like one for the history books. The fact that the Euro shows QPF that high which has been on the drier side of the envelope all season lends confidence to a high QPF event. Where is my favorite snow troll Pazzo now to tell us the Euro shows "40 degrees and rain in the city" ?????????????????????? :axe: yes because we know that these models do not change and we know that snowstorms modelled behave the same in April as they do in January. Am I missing something because it hasnt started snowing yet, why are you calling out Pazzo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Just looking at detailed maps from accupro: Coastal sections and NYC appear to be rain/sleet thru 72 and everything after is snow. About .80" after hour 72. NWNJ gets absolutely crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 yes because we know that these models do not change and we know that snowstorms modelled behave the same in April as they do in January. Am I missing something because it hasnt started snowing yet, why are you calling out Pazzo what goes around.....comes around.....nuff said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 IF and its a big IF Im assuming ratios would be pretty poor around much of the region...6 to 8-1 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 accupro snow maps have the 1"+ qpf as snow, touching NYC, Northern Queens and all of SWCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 the CIPS site lists 2/5/01 as the closest analog http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2001/us0205.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 the CIPS site lists 2/5/01 as the closest analog http://www.meteo.psu...2001/us0205.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 How can Euro give us a inch of precip of snow and Upton has no mention of snow at all?..Rain and upper 40's for Friday?..what are they looking at here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 In all fairness, CIPS also shows PDII and 2/12/83. Most of the CIPS analogs show NE getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 any bets on when the NAM will actually show a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 How can Euro give us a inch of precip of snow and Upton has no mention of snow at all?..Rain and upper 40's for Friday?..what are they looking at here? they probably haven't updated yet... this is bill goodman's facebook post: "Latest incoming forecast data supports idea of rain or a rain/snow mix changing a heavy wet snow from late Thursday night into Friday for NYC metro, Long Island, and northern/central NJ. And you thought winter was over?!?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Okay, but you can't say that because this happened in the past x times, this setup is any less than what is being shown. We have thoroughly analyzed the guidance. It could have been 90 degrees on April 1st for 100 years straight. But the best guidance is showing a snowstorm right now. That can't just be ignored. The eventual outcome remains uncertain. question- has it ever snowed more than a few inches in late march/early april when the temps had approached and in some areas surpassed 80 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 10 biggest April snowstorms in New York City .1) April 3, 1915 - 10 inches 2) April 13, 1875 - 10 inches 3) April 6, 1982 - 9.6 inches 4) April 1, 1924 - 8.5 inches 5) April 5, 1944 - 6.5 inches 6) April 9, 1917 - 6.4 inches 7) April 8, 1956 - 4.2 inches 8) April 7, 2003 - 4.0 inches 9) April 18, 1887 - 3 inches 10) April 25, 1875 - 3 inches wow.. 3 inches on April 25th.. I'd be impressed to see a trace of snow that late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 new srefs are back with the storm: 850 temps, very cold: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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