atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 For the NYC crowd THU 06Z 31-MAR 4.1 -3.2 1015 78 100 0.01 551 539 THU 12Z 31-MAR 3.4 -2.7 1013 89 100 0.03 549 538 THU 18Z 31-MAR 4.8 -1.5 1011 80 80 0.05 549 539 FRI 00Z 01-APR 3.2 -0.1 1009 91 77 0.05 548 540 FRI 06Z 01-APR 2.5 1.2 1003 97 100 0.16 544 542 FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.5 -2.4 994 97 97 0.64 536 541 FRI 18Z 01-APR 2.1 -5.3 991 86 96 0.57 527 534 SAT 00Z 02-APR 2.0 -2.9 994 91 95 0.27 528 533 SAT 06Z 02-APR 1.3 -2.4 995 81 61 0.01 529 533 SAT 12Z 02-APR 0.5 -1.6 997 88 45 0.00 529 532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Look at the 700mb low track on the GFS. That's just a crushing, crushing storm even for coastal CT. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I knew something "good" was up when I came back to my computer after about the last 6 hours of actual work (been in meetings) and saw that there were about 8 new pages since then. That's usually my simplest gauge of how snowy the models are coming in, lol - for example, you know when there hasn't been a post in a discussion thread for a few hours, you just know the latest model consensus is for an inland cutter and heavy rain. Would be sweet to end the winter (well, maybe, it can still snow through mid-April, lol) with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think the Euro QPF is probably overdone this run. P-water is relatively high in the spring and storm speed as depicted would approach moderate duration. But the moisture source is the Atlantic (not Gulf), the mid-levels aren't mind-blowing, surface pressure gradient is relatively ordinary, and the low center moves progressively into the Maritimes. I think the 12z GFS is closer to reality if that track and evolution come to pass... with QPF averages in the 1-1.25" range. I do love the slightly offshore track though. Definitely want to be squarely on the cold side of a developing CCB. I'll take frontside snows in January and backside snows in April. I also think this storm has the potential to be deeper that modeled as there is still some shortwave interference muddling the development. At NYC I think 2" is a worthy goal to shoot for. 6" would be historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think the Euro QPF is probably overdone this run. P-water is relatively high in the spring and storm speed as depicted would approach moderate duration. But the moisture source is the Atlantic (not Gulf), the mid-levels aren't mind-blowing, surface pressure gradient is relatively ordinary, and the low center moves progressively into the Maritimes. I think the 12z GFS is closer to reality if that track and evolution come to pass... with QPF averages in the 1-1.25" range. I do love the slightly offshore track though. Definitely want to be squarely on the cold side of a developing CCB. I'll take frontside snows in January and backside snows in April. I also think this storm has the potential to be deeper that modeled as there is still some shortwave interference muddling the development. At NYC I think 2" is a worthy goal to shoot for. 6" would be historic. I don't know man-- I've seen three snowfalls later than this of 6" or more.... I think 10" would definitely be historic, not sure about 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 FWIW, JMA is on the UKIE camp. Coastal hugger and all rain for coast. Big hit for interior: JMA looks slightly E and weaker than Euro, GFS, and certainly UKMET. Actually probably a bit west of the GFS SLP position, but definitely weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 excuse me? apparantly you don't frequent this board too often I certainly do, and last time I checked this thread wasnt for personal attacks because one poster isnt interpreting the outcome of this event the same as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The whole crew is back! Shouldnt this be 246 AM though? What a season NYC : 61.9 EWR: 68.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 wasn't anyone around in 2003? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I don't know man-- I've seen three snowfalls later than this of 6" or more.... I think 10" would definitely be historic, not sure about 6" I've seen multiple snowfalls of 18"+ in April... in Utah. So what? April snowfall at NYC is rare. 6" would undoubtedly be historic. General rule of thumb for sea-level snow in April.... take 1/3 of what you'd estimate the model to show in terms of snowfall if it were January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 wasn't anyone around in 2003? Yup, I think I got 6 or 7" from that early April snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I've seen multiple snowfalls of 18"+ in April... in Utah. So what? April snowfall at NYC is rare. 6" would undoubtedly be historic. General rule of thumb for sea-level snow in April.... take 1/3 of what you'd estimate the model to show in terms of snowfall if it were January. where did you get that rule from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 wasn't anyone around in 2003? I remember a 3"-6" storm. Biggest April snow in decades at NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 wasn't anyone around in 2003? Yep I got a pretty significant snowfall from that storm, and I was skeptical the entire time. I really didn't actually believe it, until it was actually on the ground. The thing that surprised me the most was how during the daytime hours it accumulated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Are you serious??!! This is just nuts. The GGEM, Euro, and GFS all show almost exact solutions of rain to heavy ccb, dynamic cooling snow. Just awesome. Verbatim, that storm would shock all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I remember a 3"-6" storm. Biggest April snow in decades at NYC. Verbatim on all three big models, this storm would trump 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 where did you get that rule from? I'd like to know this, too. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Looks great..however April snow folks..be careful! Funny the NWS forecast is for Rain in the upper 40's..I mean it's all climo with them I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 10 biggest April snowstorms in New York City .1) April 3, 1915 - 10 inches 2) April 13, 1875 - 10 inches 3) April 6, 1982 - 9.6 inches 4) April 1, 1924 - 8.5 inches 5) April 5, 1944 - 6.5 inches 6) April 9, 1917 - 6.4 inches 7) April 8, 1956 - 4.2 inches 8) April 7, 2003 - 4.0 inches 9) April 18, 1887 - 3 inches 10) April 25, 1875 - 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 So annoyed I'm leaving on Thursday night for vacation! I would've loved to stay here and watch this pan out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 where did you get that rule from? I've been tracking storms for a long time. I've almost always lived at sea-level (except a few winters in the Wasatch). And I have an affinity for numerics and statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yup, I think I got 6 or 7" from that early April snow. Yeah I remember that one vividly. One of my all-time favorite storms. Would be awesome to see something similar as a grand finale for this winter. Dynamics are a huge key and with the timing of this being at night, I'm liking what I'm seeing. Of course we still have a ways to go, and everything has to happen just right to get a significant event in early April. So cautious optimism is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 10 biggest April snowstorms in New York City .1) April 3, 1915 - 10 inches 2) April 13, 1875 - 10 inches 3) April 6, 1982 - 9.6 inches 4) April 1, 1924 - 8.5 inches 5) April 5, 1944 - 6.5 inches 6) April 9, 1917 - 6.4 inches 7) April 8, 1956 - 4.2 inches 8) April 7, 2003 - 4.0 inches 9) April 18, 1887 - 3 inches 10) April 25, 1875 - 3 inches I guess one could make the argument we are due for an accumulating april snowfall. Most of the big ones seem to have came predominantly before 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 10 biggest April snowstorms in New York City 10) April 25, 1875 - 3 inches i remember that day in 1875.... pazzo83 kept posting, "enjoy your 72 and rain." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I certainly do, and last time I checked this thread wasnt for personal attacks because one poster isnt interpreting the outcome of this event the same as you. but that's not what he does. I'm going after him because he never gives reasoning for his statements. He admitted yesterday that he doesn't even look at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 A big storm in April for NYC is basically any accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 but that's not what he does. I'm going after him because he never gives reasoning for his statements. He admitted yesterday that he doesn't even look at the models. Where the hell did I say that? Look dude, just drop it and grow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Verbatim on all three big models, this storm would trump 2003. I agree in terms of overall storm magnitude. I think 2003 was more of an overrunning/hybrid miller B situation. But I'm not sure it would exceed that one in terms of snowfall. 2003 had a pretty good shot of moderated arctic air in place before the precipitation moved in. I'm a bit concerned about the cold air being stale by the time our storm is in place. We've had dewpoints in the single numbers for the past few days, but we're warming/moderating without a reinforcing shot of cold air. That could mean trouble with surface temperatures. Sure, dynamic cooling would win out in the most intense bands, but you lose a lot of QPF before and after that would be accumulating snow in mid-winter. Verbatim I'd estimate 4"-6" off the GFS and Euro for the NYC terminals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Where the hell did I say that? Look dude, just drop it and grow up. Post #78 on this forum. 2:05pm yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Add JMA to the list: Has a nice coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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