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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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1.90 qpf at Andover

1.74 at Morristown

1.74 at Caldwell

1.78 at Sussex

1.64 at NYC

IF that were all snow.... historic snowfall and likely the best April snowstorm of all time, tied with April 1982. And the records of 1995-1996 will be broken.

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Why is it throwing so much QPF back over Philly/Trenton to the SW and less over Long Island? Do you think that will pass over our area?

You can dryslot especially when at H7 it goes right over your head. Similar to what happened back in Dec. The best dynamics are over NJ and a result the heavier qpf band is located there. Serious deformation potential

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Boxing day similarities. It has the comma head and associated mid level frontogenesis over NJ and into the Berks. Probably a little dryslot for a time over LI, but we are 3 days out and I wouldn't do naked hi-fives just yet. Euro is on the western envelope right now, but it could be right.

Western LI did well in the Boxing Day event so the cutoff may be to our east.

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Boxing day similarities. It has the comma head and associated mid level frontogenesis over NJ and into the Berks. Probably a little dryslot for a time over LI, but we are 3 days out and I wouldn't do naked hi-fives just yet. Euro is on the western envelope right now, but it could be right.

This would clearly be a historic storm for most of NJ and NYC metro for this time of the year. Wow! :snowman:

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You're going to give Noreaster85 a stroke with this kind of talk

:lmao:

I knew it was time to get excited when you posted your "mother of god" post before. This sounds like one for the history books. The fact that the Euro shows QPF that high which has been on the drier side of the envelope all season lends confidence to a high QPF event.

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im still not buying it, thinking mostly rain with a slight possibility of change to snow at the end. Maybe a good storm NW of 287

your thought doesn't have much support right now except from the UKMET which has been terrible all year. There seems to be two camps now, One is for a 75% + snow event for most of NYC metro and the other is for a complete miss. The NAM, DGEX and some of the ensembles being part of the latter.

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your thought doesn't have much support right now except from the UKMET which has been terrible all year. There seems to be two camps now, One is for a 75% + snow event for most of NYC metro and the other is for a complete miss. The NAM, DGEX and some of the ensembles being part of the latter.

I dont see a bomb in this pattern, its much too progressive regardless of what the GFS or Euro shows. If we dont get a bomb we are not going to achive the amount of dynamic cooling necessary for snow to the coast. NW of 287 with elevation has a much better shot for accumulating snows even without a bomb.

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I dont see a bomb in this pattern, its much too progressive regardless of what the GFS or Euro shows. If we dont get a bomb we are not going to achive the amount of dynamic cooling necessary for snow to the coast. NW of 287 with elevation has a much better shot for accumulating snows even without a bomb.

:weenie:

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The whole crew is back! :thumbsup:

i'll refrain...

just pissed at how utterly STUPID MLB is to have east coast/outdoor teams at home the first 10-14 days of the baseball season...MORONS...same stupidity every year...injuries, rain outs, rain delays, cold weather baseball...a joke.

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