NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Sexy sexy sexy run! H5 closes off just in time to exploded the qpf field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 1.90 qpf at Andover 1.74 at Morristown 1.74 at Caldwell 1.78 at Sussex 1.64 at NYC IF that were all snow.... historic snowfall and likely the best April snowstorm of all time, tied with April 1982. And the records of 1995-1996 will be broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Why is it throwing so much QPF back over Philly/Trenton to the SW and less over Long Island? Do you think that will pass over our area? You can dryslot especially when at H7 it goes right over your head. Similar to what happened back in Dec. The best dynamics are over NJ and a result the heavier qpf band is located there. Serious deformation potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 IF that were all snow.... historic snowfall and likely the best April snowstorm of all time, tied with April 1982. Probably .25-.45 of that is rain or mix in NYC. Less of that to the west, more of it to the east. Still incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Boxing day similarities. It has the comma head and associated mid level frontogenesis over NJ and into the Berks. Probably a little dryslot for a time over LI, but we are 3 days out and I wouldn't do naked hi-fives just yet. Euro is on the western envelope right now, but it could be right. Western LI did well in the Boxing Day event so the cutoff may be to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Probably .25-.45 of that is rain or mix in NYC. Less of that to the west, more of it to the east. Still incredible. Here's hoping the CCB makes it up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Boxing day similarities. It has the comma head and associated mid level frontogenesis over NJ and into the Berks. Probably a little dryslot for a time over LI, but we are 3 days out and I wouldn't do naked hi-fives just yet. Euro is on the western envelope right now, but it could be right. This would clearly be a historic storm for most of NJ and NYC metro for this time of the year. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Western LI did well in the Boxing Day event so the cutoff may be to our east. It depends on how everything forms. Could be east or west, and my guess is that models probably won't be able to fine tune until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 nice run.. i hope it's cold enough.. i think there would be a ton of dyamic cooling with this kind of system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What do SV snow maps show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What do SV snow maps show? Don't exist for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 im sorry but how would LI do in this storm... rain is surely a given but will we also see some heavy precip in the form of snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 How are the temps looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Probably .25-.45 of that is rain or mix in NYC. Less of that to the west, more of it to the east. Still incredible. John, how much of that QPF would be snow, in your estimation? Is this a quick mover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You're going to give Noreaster85 a stroke with this kind of talk I knew it was time to get excited when you posted your "mother of god" post before. This sounds like one for the history books. The fact that the Euro shows QPF that high which has been on the drier side of the envelope all season lends confidence to a high QPF event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 im still not buying it, thinking mostly rain with a slight possibility of change to snow at the end. Maybe a good storm NW of 287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 How are the temps looking? 51 here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 im still not buying it, thinking mostly rain with a slight possibility of change to snow at the end. Maybe a good storm NW of 287 great post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 im still not buying it, thinking mostly rain with a slight possibility of change to snow at the end. Maybe a good storm NW of 287 The whole crew is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 im still not buying it, thinking mostly rain with a slight possibility of change to snow at the end. Maybe a good storm NW of 287 your thought doesn't have much support right now except from the UKMET which has been terrible all year. There seems to be two camps now, One is for a 75% + snow event for most of NYC metro and the other is for a complete miss. The NAM, DGEX and some of the ensembles being part of the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The whole crew is back! Going to be a full house for the 00z runs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 John, how much of that QPF would be snow, in your estimation? Is this a quick mover? NYC and area get 1.60"-1.75" of qpf. I would be more conservative and say that coastal sections lose half the qpf to rain and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 im still not buying it, thinking mostly rain with a slight possibility of change to snow at the end. Maybe a good storm NW of 287 How many April snowfalls have you seen in our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What is the matter with you? excuse me? apparantly you don't frequent this board too often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 NYC and area get 1.60"-1.75" of qpf. I would be more conservative and say that coastal sections lose half the qpf to rain and sleet. Sounds like the QPF/snow distribution of Feb 26-27, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 your thought doesn't have much support right now except from the UKMET which has been terrible all year. There seems to be two camps now, One is for a 75% + snow event for most of NYC metro and the other is for a complete miss. The NAM, DGEX and some of the ensembles being part of the latter. I dont see a bomb in this pattern, its much too progressive regardless of what the GFS or Euro shows. If we dont get a bomb we are not going to achive the amount of dynamic cooling necessary for snow to the coast. NW of 287 with elevation has a much better shot for accumulating snows even without a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Going to be a full house for the 00z runs later. The late night crew is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I dont see a bomb in this pattern, its much too progressive regardless of what the GFS or Euro shows. If we dont get a bomb we are not going to achive the amount of dynamic cooling necessary for snow to the coast. NW of 287 with elevation has a much better shot for accumulating snows even without a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 FWIW, JMA is on the UKIE camp. Coastal hugger and all rain for coast. Big hit for interior: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The whole crew is back! i'll refrain... just pissed at how utterly STUPID MLB is to have east coast/outdoor teams at home the first 10-14 days of the baseball season...MORONS...same stupidity every year...injuries, rain outs, rain delays, cold weather baseball...a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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