ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GGEM also looks like it would be rain to heavy snow. Ewall still hasnt come out though to confirm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Well we all should at this stage, but I'm not down on this at all. Canadian is a crusher it seems. I'm just saying we may have a few models swings given all the moving parts, so I'm gonna remain hopeful, but cautious. Your the man. Look foward to ur post. Ggem being a hit makes me feel a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Your the man. Look foward to ur post. Ggem being a hit makes me feel a bit better. GGEM looks like up to hour 72 its rain and then from hour 72-84, intense heavy snowfall under the CCB. Precip maps however are a mix for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GGEM: Through 72: Hours 72-78 - .75"-1" in 6 hours: Hours 78-84. SO AT THE VERY LEAST, the GGEM is .50" or so as ccb snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 ^ I think the GGEM has a warm thicknesses bias. It even shows the rain/snow mix for all of New England, and I'm almost positive that in that setup, New England would be getting blitzed with snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GGEM is further offshore with the track of the low yet its warmer temp wise than the GFS. One thing for sure, the cutoff won't be as sharp as Boxing Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 euro now a tad more amplified, ridge out west is a bit more ampd and heights out in front of the s/w a a tad higher. This is lookin good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yeah, the Euro is definitely more amplified than 0z, which is actually a good thing. The northern stream is digging a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Hopefully not too amped. We dont want it anymore west then 0z. Actually prefer it to be east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Hopefully not too amped. We dont want it anymore west then 0z. Actually prefer it to be east. 0z matured a "tad" too late, though, and we missed out on the best CCB. With the northern stream digging more, that should also allow more cold air to filter into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 0z matured a "tad" too late, though, and we missed out on the best CCB. With the northern stream digging more, that should also allow more cold air to filter into the system. Yeah this would actually be a better result for us now than-- let's say-- January-- because of the shorter wavelengths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This run is gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Thanks for the maps ag3. Ur a asset to a guy at work posting from his phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Blizzard? What do you think. Sure looks like it to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This run is amazing!!!!! Time to go to class now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 So the EURO has a disorganized and weak LP offshore at 66 and at 72 it undergoes some intensification east of NJ and spreads some higher qpf back. Temps are marginal. It appears as if the EURO might be later with the phase and more beneficial for areas of New England. Regardless it still has a storm, but I would just like to see it capture earlier so that it could have a more beneficial solution for many. It however is by no means a BAD run, it just needs some work. We still have some time to work things out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Absolutely incredible panels at 72-78 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Will post soundings when its out enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Like a Spring Version of Dec 26? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This looks great for NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 EC DAY 3: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 At hrs 78 and 84 it throws back even more qpf and drops to sub 986mb off of Long Island. Still a touch warm with the 2m temps. Like I said the only caution I advise is that it is later with the phase, and often times this can screw areas over further to the S that are expecting big QPF. Just think about past storms that have captured late and as a result everything is shifted north. Regardless a great run, and definitely gives more credence to the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This run is amazing!!!!! Time to go to class now. Dammit, I logged onto AIM to find out if you had running water yet haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro Soundings for LGA. Appears to be rain to heavy, wet snow. In order - surface temps, 850 temps (bolded) , sfc pressure, sfc rhu, 700 rhu, 6 hour precip (bolded) , 500 DM, 100/500 Thickness FRI 06Z 01-APR 2.6 1.3 1003 97 100 0.17 544 542 FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.6 -2.2 994 97 97 0.63 536 541 FRI 18Z 01-APR 2.1 -5.2 991 87 94 0.55 527 534 SAT 00Z 02-APR 2.1 -3.1 994 90 94 0.26 528 533 Thicknesses are very cold. Definitely snow, even with surface 34-36, which is likely overdone by all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This looks great for NJ. Why is it throwing so much QPF back over Philly/Trenton to the SW and less over Long Island? Do you think that will pass over our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Why is it throwing so much QPF back over Philly/Trenton to the SW and less over Long Island? Do you think that will pass over our area? Boxing day similarities. It has the comma head and associated mid level frontogenesis over NJ and into the Berks. Probably a little dryslot for a time over LI, but we are 3 days out and I wouldn't do naked hi-fives just yet. Euro is on the western envelope right now, but it could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Wow at this 6 hour frame at MMU FRI 18Z 01-APR 1.8 -4.6 993 90 94 0.79 527 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Boxing day similarities. You're going to give Noreaster85 a stroke with this kind of talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 1.90 qpf at Andover 1.74 at Morristown 1.74 at Caldwell 1.78 at Sussex 1.64 at NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro has 1.62" of precip for LGA from the main storm. I would guess that about .75" of that is wasted to rain/sleet before CCB cranks and gives all of us .75"+ of qpf as snow. By all of us I mean NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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