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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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QPF looks very good. Storm Vista snowfall output is very impressive again.. .like it was 6Z.. it is producing widespread 6 inch totals, even near NYC.. it even has a couple of 12-18 inch maximums, interestingly near Trenton and then in extreme northern NJ and southeastern NY.. but I am not going to go nuts that we will get those kind of snowfall totals... well, at least not yet.. This time of year, I probably almost have to see it actually happen to believe it. :arrowhead: but hey.. it's possible.. it has happened before.. not too often, but it's not like it's mid April yet

Yes, it's actually on the first of April. I daresay this could have even happened a week later-- we've seen some nice snowstorms in the April 5-10 time period also.

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which snow troll hacked into the bufkit site? It's showing no snow at KMMU at all for the 12z GFS

110401/0300Z 75 05013KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.024|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 1| 99

110401/0600Z 78 05018KT 32.7F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.524|| 0.55 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 4| 19| 77

110401/0900Z 81 05020KT 33.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.551|| 1.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/1200Z 84 07016KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.350|| 1.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/1500Z 87 14011KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.079|| 1.53 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/1800Z 90 16009KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 1.62 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/2100Z 93 25006KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.110|| 1.73 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110402/0000Z 96 29014KT 33.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 1.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 23| 0| 77

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Obviously these are with a grain of salt since it is still so far out, but some BUFKIT totals just for fun:

The ratios are like 9:1 :lol:

New Brunswick, NJ: 6.5"

Trenton: 7.5"

La Guardia Airport: 9.0"

Newark, NJ: 7.0"

Just as a sample evolution, for KLGA, surface temperatures at 5PM Thursday are still ~+7C. Sleet begins around 11PM and switches over to snow overnight. Surface temperatures bounce between 32F and 34F. It ends as a little bit of sleet and rain (marginal).

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which snow troll hacked into the bufkit site? It's showing no snow at KMMU at all for the 12z GFS

110401/0300Z 75 05013KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.024|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 1| 99

110401/0600Z 78 05018KT 32.7F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.524|| 0.55 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 4| 19| 77

110401/0900Z 81 05020KT 33.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.551|| 1.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/1200Z 84 07016KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.350|| 1.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/1500Z 87 14011KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.079|| 1.53 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/1800Z 90 16009KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 1.62 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/2100Z 93 25006KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.110|| 1.73 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110402/0000Z 96 29014KT 33.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 1.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 23| 0| 77

No offense, but text output != BUFKIT. BUFKIT is a specialized program that uses .buf files that are generated directly from model data. I don't know why your text outputs disagree with standard BUFKIT readings so much.

It shows 6.0" for KMMU.

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Obviously these are with a grain of salt since it is still so far out, but some BUFKIT totals just for fun:

The ratios are like 9:1 :lol:

New Brunswick, NJ: 6.5"

Trenton: 7.5"

La Guardia Airport: 9.0"

Newark, NJ: 7.0"

Just as a sample evolution, for KLGA, surface temperatures at 5PM Thursday are still ~+7C. Sleet begins around 11PM and switches over to snow overnight. Surface temperatures bounce between 32F and 34F. It ends as a little bit of sleet and rain (marginal).

Hey, Jake, can you do one for JFK? Thanks! How long of an event are we talking about here?

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Obviously these are with a grain of salt since it is still so far out, but some BUFKIT totals just for fun:

The ratios are like 9:1 :lol:

New Brunswick, NJ: 6.5"

Trenton: 7.5"

La Guardia Airport: 9.0"

Newark, NJ: 7.0"

Just as a sample evolution, for KLGA, surface temperatures at 5PM Thursday are still ~+7C. Sleet begins around 11PM and switches over to snow overnight. Surface temperatures bounce between 32F and 34F. It ends as a little bit of sleet and rain (marginal).

Is that snow accumulation, or snowfall? Or does BUFKIT not differentiate between the two?

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From Coastal in the NE thread:

CoastalWx, on 29 March 2011 - 01:09 PM, said:

It looks weird on the ensembles. In comparing the 500 height progs, this trough is actually sharper and would argue for a low somewhat west of the 00z run, yet it's east on the 12z run. If I had to guess, they might be a little too far east, but we are still in that shaky period where models shift around.

Canadian is back nw of 00z.

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No offense, but text output != BUFKIT. BUFKIT is a specialized program that uses .buf files that are generated directly from model data. I don't know why your text outputs disagree with standard BUFKIT readings so much.

It shows 6.0" for KMMU.

I don't know why either, I'm getting them from http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/

6.0" seems underdone.

If this closes off at 500mb even 6 hrs sooner, we get the heart of the CCB instead of SNE.

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It has 8.0" for KJFK. Event starts around Thursday at 8PM and ends around mid-afternoon Friday. Heaviest is from 5-8AM Friday morning. Nasty commute it'd be.

Yeah-- I can envision some April Fools' Jokes being made about the snow on the morning news :gun_bandana:

I hope this works out-- unlike April 1997, which we were forecast to get like 8-12 inches and ended up with 1-3 with more snow both to our south and our north.

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Is that snow accumulation, or snowfall? Or does BUFKIT not differentiate between the two?

It is "Snowfall Accumulation". It shows 9.5" of total hourly snowfall but 7.9" "accumulating" for JFK, for example. It also has a constant horizontal line for "Hourly Snowfall" but the "Snowfall Accumulation" decreases after the storm steadily. That feature is new to BUFKIT, at least for me, this winter, so I'm still getting used to it but it seems to make enough sense. I don't know how they actually wrote the algorithm and what it includes to calculate the 'accumulation' vs. actual snowfall.

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The BUFKIT data you posted is from the 0z GFS :)

Here's the 12Z GFS soundings for MMU from 54 to 84 hours. Precip. begins between 60 and 63 hours, with the heavy precip. beginning between 66 and 69 hours. Based on the soundings, the GFS shows light rain at the very onset at MMU, but quickly changing to snow by 66 hours.

post-88-0-79462700-1301419178.gif

which snow troll hacked into the bufkit site? It's showing no snow at KMMU at all for the 12z GFS

110401/0300Z 75 05013KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.024|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 1| 99

110401/0600Z 78 05018KT 32.7F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.524|| 0.55 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 4| 19| 77

110401/0900Z 81 05020KT 33.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.551|| 1.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/1200Z 84 07016KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.350|| 1.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/1500Z 87 14011KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.079|| 1.53 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/1800Z 90 16009KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 1.62 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/2100Z 93 25006KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.110|| 1.73 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110402/0000Z 96 29014KT 33.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 1.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 23| 0| 77

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From Coastal in the NE thread:

CoastalWx, on 29 March 2011 - 01:09 PM, said:

It looks weird on the ensembles. In comparing the 500 height progs, this trough is actually sharper and would argue for a low somewhat west of the 00z run, yet it's east on the 12z run. If I had to guess, they might be a little too far east, but we are still in that shaky period where models shift around.

Canadian is back nw of 00z.

I'm waiting to see if there are some members that might be skewing the mean. I thought it had a better presentation at 500mb as compared to 00z, but the surface depiction was east. Maybe it's right, but it seemed a little weird.

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hmmmm......maybe I clicked on the wrong run, perhaps. This now shows 12.2" of snow at KMMU but with a period of 25:1 ratios. I've never understood how it comes up with those numbers.

110331/0000Z 36 17004KT 34.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.075|| 0.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110331/0300Z 39 VRB02KT 32.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110331/0600Z 42 08003KT 32.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110331/0900Z 45 04004KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110331/1200Z 48 04004KT 32.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110331/1500Z 51 07006KT 41.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110331/1800Z 54 09005KT 43.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110331/2100Z 57 08007KT 43.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110401/0000Z 60 07005KT 37.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/0300Z 63 06007KT 34.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.094|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/0600Z 66 03011KT 32.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.154|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 39| 0| 61

110401/0900Z 69 02012KT 31.1F SNOW 25:1| 7.2|| 7.2 0.287|| 0.54 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110401/1200Z 72 01012KT 31.8F SNOW 18:1| 5.0||12.2 0.276|| 0.82 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 90| 0| 10

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/1500Z 75 34012KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0||12.2 0.134|| 0.95 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 65| 0| 35

110401/1800Z 78 30010KT 33.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0||12.2 0.094|| 1.05 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 26| 0| 74

110401/2100Z 81 28009KT 33.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0||12.2 0.028|| 1.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110402/0000Z 84 29010KT 32.9F 0:1| 0.0||12.2 0.000|| 1.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

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I'm waiting to see if there are some members that might be skewing the mean. I thought it had a better presentation at 500mb as compared to 00z, but the surface depiction was east. Maybe it's right, but it seemed a little weird.

I remember someone saying in that thread there were 3 members skewing the mean.... I don't remember who said that though.

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I'm waiting to see if there are some members that might be skewing the mean. I thought it had a better presentation at 500mb as compared to 00z, but the surface depiction was east. Maybe it's right, but it seemed a little weird.

you being cautiously optimistic concerns me. Perhaps its better that way so I don't get my hopes up.
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I remember someone saying in that thread there were 3 members skewing the mean.... I don't remember who said that though.

Yeah. They said that 3 members are not developing this wave and focusing on the NAM wave and therefore popping the storm way east.

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you being cautiously optimistic concerns me. Perhaps its better that way so I don't get my hopes up.

Well we all should at this stage, but I'm not down on this at all. Canadian is a crusher it seems.

I'm just saying we may have a few models swings given all the moving parts, so I'm gonna remain hopeful, but cautious.

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