A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 QPF looks very good. Storm Vista snowfall output is very impressive again.. .like it was 6Z.. it is producing widespread 6 inch totals, even near NYC.. it even has a couple of 12-18 inch maximums, interestingly near Trenton and then in extreme northern NJ and southeastern NY.. but I am not going to go nuts that we will get those kind of snowfall totals... well, at least not yet.. This time of year, I probably almost have to see it actually happen to believe it. but hey.. it's possible.. it has happened before.. not too often, but it's not like it's mid April yet Yes, it's actually on the first of April. I daresay this could have even happened a week later-- we've seen some nice snowstorms in the April 5-10 time period also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Best part about GFS is that the intense CCB hits our area hours 66-78. 8pm Thursday night thru 8am Friday morning. So 100% of it at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Gefs mean way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 which snow troll hacked into the bufkit site? It's showing no snow at KMMU at all for the 12z GFS 110401/0300Z 75 05013KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.024|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 1| 99 110401/0600Z 78 05018KT 32.7F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.524|| 0.55 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 4| 19| 77 110401/0900Z 81 05020KT 33.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.551|| 1.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110401/1200Z 84 07016KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.350|| 1.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110401/1500Z 87 14011KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.079|| 1.53 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110401/1800Z 90 16009KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 1.62 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110401/2100Z 93 25006KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.110|| 1.73 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110402/0000Z 96 29014KT 33.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 1.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 23| 0| 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Obviously these are with a grain of salt since it is still so far out, but some BUFKIT totals just for fun: The ratios are like 9:1 New Brunswick, NJ: 6.5" Trenton: 7.5" La Guardia Airport: 9.0" Newark, NJ: 7.0" Just as a sample evolution, for KLGA, surface temperatures at 5PM Thursday are still ~+7C. Sleet begins around 11PM and switches over to snow overnight. Surface temperatures bounce between 32F and 34F. It ends as a little bit of sleet and rain (marginal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Gefs mean way east Great point they went even further east, and the ggem is east? Nam a non event/ just trying to catch up at lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Gefs mean way east not the best sign. they were amped up last night at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z GGEM has good precip over us and storm appears far enough east. Appears though that thicknesses are warm. Need ewall to see 850 and other levels: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 which snow troll hacked into the bufkit site? It's showing no snow at KMMU at all for the 12z GFS 110401/0300Z 75 05013KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.024|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 1| 99 110401/0600Z 78 05018KT 32.7F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.524|| 0.55 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 4| 19| 77 110401/0900Z 81 05020KT 33.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.551|| 1.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110401/1200Z 84 07016KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.350|| 1.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110401/1500Z 87 14011KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.079|| 1.53 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110401/1800Z 90 16009KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 1.62 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110401/2100Z 93 25006KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.110|| 1.73 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110402/0000Z 96 29014KT 33.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 1.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 23| 0| 77 No offense, but text output != BUFKIT. BUFKIT is a specialized program that uses .buf files that are generated directly from model data. I don't know why your text outputs disagree with standard BUFKIT readings so much. It shows 6.0" for KMMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Obviously these are with a grain of salt since it is still so far out, but some BUFKIT totals just for fun: The ratios are like 9:1 New Brunswick, NJ: 6.5" Trenton: 7.5" La Guardia Airport: 9.0" Newark, NJ: 7.0" Just as a sample evolution, for KLGA, surface temperatures at 5PM Thursday are still ~+7C. Sleet begins around 11PM and switches over to snow overnight. Surface temperatures bounce between 32F and 34F. It ends as a little bit of sleet and rain (marginal). Hey, Jake, can you do one for JFK? Thanks! How long of an event are we talking about here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 not the best sign. they were amped up last night at 00z According to Coastal, the trough is actually sharper than at 00z and the ensembles may be too far east based on the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Obviously these are with a grain of salt since it is still so far out, but some BUFKIT totals just for fun: The ratios are like 9:1 New Brunswick, NJ: 6.5" Trenton: 7.5" La Guardia Airport: 9.0" Newark, NJ: 7.0" Just as a sample evolution, for KLGA, surface temperatures at 5PM Thursday are still ~+7C. Sleet begins around 11PM and switches over to snow overnight. Surface temperatures bounce between 32F and 34F. It ends as a little bit of sleet and rain (marginal). Is that snow accumulation, or snowfall? Or does BUFKIT not differentiate between the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 With short wavelengths this time of year, and how wound up the Ukie is, the GEFS being a bit east is not a bad thing, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 From Coastal in the NE thread: CoastalWx, on 29 March 2011 - 01:09 PM, said: It looks weird on the ensembles. In comparing the 500 height progs, this trough is actually sharper and would argue for a low somewhat west of the 00z run, yet it's east on the 12z run. If I had to guess, they might be a little too far east, but we are still in that shaky period where models shift around. Canadian is back nw of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Hey, Jake, can you do one for JFK? Thanks! How long of an event are we talking about here? It has 8.0" for KJFK. Event starts around Thursday at 8PM and ends around mid-afternoon Friday. Heaviest is from 5-8AM Friday morning. Nasty commute it'd be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 No offense, but text output != BUFKIT. BUFKIT is a specialized program that uses .buf files that are generated directly from model data. I don't know why your text outputs disagree with standard BUFKIT readings so much. It shows 6.0" for KMMU. I don't know why either, I'm getting them from http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ 6.0" seems underdone. If this closes off at 500mb even 6 hrs sooner, we get the heart of the CCB instead of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It has 8.0" for KJFK. Event starts around Thursday at 8PM and ends around mid-afternoon Friday. Heaviest is from 5-8AM Friday morning. Nasty commute it'd be. Yeah-- I can envision some April Fools' Jokes being made about the snow on the morning news I hope this works out-- unlike April 1997, which we were forecast to get like 8-12 inches and ended up with 1-3 with more snow both to our south and our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 not the best sign. they were amped up last night at 00z Yeah not something I want to see. Hope for a big. run from the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Is that snow accumulation, or snowfall? Or does BUFKIT not differentiate between the two? It is "Snowfall Accumulation". It shows 9.5" of total hourly snowfall but 7.9" "accumulating" for JFK, for example. It also has a constant horizontal line for "Hourly Snowfall" but the "Snowfall Accumulation" decreases after the storm steadily. That feature is new to BUFKIT, at least for me, this winter, so I'm still getting used to it but it seems to make enough sense. I don't know how they actually wrote the algorithm and what it includes to calculate the 'accumulation' vs. actual snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The BUFKIT data you posted is from the 0z GFS Here's the 12Z GFS soundings for MMU from 54 to 84 hours. Precip. begins between 60 and 63 hours, with the heavy precip. beginning between 66 and 69 hours. Based on the soundings, the GFS shows light rain at the very onset at MMU, but quickly changing to snow by 66 hours. which snow troll hacked into the bufkit site? It's showing no snow at KMMU at all for the 12z GFS 110401/0300Z 75 05013KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.024|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 1| 99 110401/0600Z 78 05018KT 32.7F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.524|| 0.55 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 4| 19| 77 110401/0900Z 81 05020KT 33.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.551|| 1.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110401/1200Z 84 07016KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.350|| 1.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110401/1500Z 87 14011KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.079|| 1.53 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110401/1800Z 90 16009KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 1.62 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110401/2100Z 93 25006KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.110|| 1.73 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110402/0000Z 96 29014KT 33.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 1.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 23| 0| 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 From Coastal in the NE thread: CoastalWx, on 29 March 2011 - 01:09 PM, said: It looks weird on the ensembles. In comparing the 500 height progs, this trough is actually sharper and would argue for a low somewhat west of the 00z run, yet it's east on the 12z run. If I had to guess, they might be a little too far east, but we are still in that shaky period where models shift around. Canadian is back nw of 00z. I'm waiting to see if there are some members that might be skewing the mean. I thought it had a better presentation at 500mb as compared to 00z, but the surface depiction was east. Maybe it's right, but it seemed a little weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 hmmmm......maybe I clicked on the wrong run, perhaps. This now shows 12.2" of snow at KMMU but with a period of 25:1 ratios. I've never understood how it comes up with those numbers. 110331/0000Z 36 17004KT 34.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.075|| 0.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110331/0300Z 39 VRB02KT 32.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110331/0600Z 42 08003KT 32.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110331/0900Z 45 04004KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110331/1200Z 48 04004KT 32.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110331/1500Z 51 07006KT 41.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110331/1800Z 54 09005KT 43.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110331/2100Z 57 08007KT 43.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110401/0000Z 60 07005KT 37.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110401/0300Z 63 06007KT 34.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.094|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110401/0600Z 66 03011KT 32.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.154|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 39| 0| 61 110401/0900Z 69 02012KT 31.1F SNOW 25:1| 7.2|| 7.2 0.287|| 0.54 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110401/1200Z 72 01012KT 31.8F SNOW 18:1| 5.0||12.2 0.276|| 0.82 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 90| 0| 10 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110401/1500Z 75 34012KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0||12.2 0.134|| 0.95 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 65| 0| 35 110401/1800Z 78 30010KT 33.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0||12.2 0.094|| 1.05 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 26| 0| 74 110401/2100Z 81 28009KT 33.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0||12.2 0.028|| 1.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 110402/0000Z 84 29010KT 32.9F 0:1| 0.0||12.2 0.000|| 1.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm waiting to see if there are some members that might be skewing the mean. I thought it had a better presentation at 500mb as compared to 00z, but the surface depiction was east. Maybe it's right, but it seemed a little weird. I remember someone saying in that thread there were 3 members skewing the mean.... I don't remember who said that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 those text outputs are incredibly unreliable and don't offer much information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm waiting to see if there are some members that might be skewing the mean. I thought it had a better presentation at 500mb as compared to 00z, but the surface depiction was east. Maybe it's right, but it seemed a little weird. you being cautiously optimistic concerns me. Perhaps its better that way so I don't get my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I remember someone saying in that thread there were 3 members skewing the mean.... I don't remember who said that though. Yeah. They said that 3 members are not developing this wave and focusing on the NAM wave and therefore popping the storm way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12 Z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 ATown, what was the NOGAPS going? Was it further east or flagging the models to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 ATown, what was the NOGAPS going? Was it further east or flagging the models to the west? Well east..East of Nova Scotia.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 you being cautiously optimistic concerns me. Perhaps its better that way so I don't get my hopes up. Well we all should at this stage, but I'm not down on this at all. Canadian is a crusher it seems. I'm just saying we may have a few models swings given all the moving parts, so I'm gonna remain hopeful, but cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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