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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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I think the consistency between the EURO/GFS makes the potential of this becoming a major event more significant. When those two agree, it's usually a winning combo in my experience (especially this close in). Definitely have higher confidence in this snow event than our last one in terms of snowfall potential for the city itself.

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I do kind of wish the 500mb low was closing off a tad earlier. We saw the "consequences" of that happening slightly too late with the January 11th event--obviously that was a great storm, but a lot of areas didn't realize their full potential because of that.

It also looks like the best PVA is AT 72 hours, which is when eastern LI and SNE get crushed the most...this event actually may very well have similar banding features that the Jan 11th event did, if it were to come to fruition like this. However, maybe the insanely INCREASING PVA between 66 and 72, which is when we get crushed, will be enough.

A QPF field can't always be taken literally...you have to see if a certain QPF field makes sense given the forecast pattern. There is, however, earlier cyclogenesis than there was with the Jan 11th event, since this "hybrid" is originating a lot further south than the Jan 11th "Miller B". I think Jan 11th was also a hybrid, but it was more of a Miller B than this event is forecast to be.

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Doug you have good points but the key was the last paragraph. The atmospheric process is different when the shortwave is coming from the Great Lakes (Jan 11) , and when it's coming from farther southwest like this system.

This is actually a classic frontogenic banding signal on the GFS verbatim, but the chances of it being correct with the placement are rather slim.

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I already locked up the solution in my mind therefore it is going to happen

climo says we get rain, so therefore it wont happen.

this has potential to be a historical storm, not because of snowfall amounts, but because april snowstorms for the big cities are rare and nyc can break snowfall records if it comes true.

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Doug you have good points but the key was the last paragraph. The atmospheric process is different when the shortwave is coming from the Great Lakes (Jan 11) , and when it's coming from farther southwest like this system.

This is actually a classic frontogenic banding signal on the GFS verbatim, but the chances of it being correct with the placement are rather slim.

The 700 banding looks insane for a 6hr time down there.

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I do kind of wish the 500mb low was closing off a tad earlier. We saw the "consequences" of that happening slightly too late with the January 11th event--obviously that was a great storm, but a lot of areas didn't realize their full potential because of that.

It also looks like the best PVA is AT 72 hours, which is when eastern LI and SNE get crushed the most...this event actually may very well have similar banding features that the Jan 11th event did, if it were to come to fruition like this. However, maybe the insanely INCREASING PVA between 66 and 72, which is when we get crushed, will be enough.

A QPF field can't always be taken literally...you have to see if a certain QPF field makes sense given the forecast pattern. There is, however, earlier cyclogenesis than there was with the Jan 11th event, since this "hybrid" is originating a lot further south than the Jan 11th "Miller B". I think Jan 11th was also a hybrid, but it was more of a Miller B than this event is forecast to be.

The thing is the Jan 11 event was very close to being huge for us-- so this is still a great signal. The fact that this is originating further south should also help out. Remember that, with Jan 11, there was 15" of snow as far west as Eastern Nassau. Obviously we won't get anything like that, but we could see some accumulation out of this quite easily.

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Yeah it's ridiculous...how many times have we seen similar maps this year? I'm not trying to shovel 90 pounds of crocus crushing snow...but the crazy inbred DGEX model seems to have a following now. Unreal.

Ha I would like it to stall for awhile

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The GFS literally says, "you can take your climo into the bathroom with you and wipe your *** with it when your finished" :whistle:

Seriously, this is about as perfect of a run as we could have possibly gotten for this time of year. HECS.:scooter:

I like that we're actually evolving to this solution instead of having it 7 days out and moving away from it. Where are all the snow haters now? :arrowhead:

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climo says we get rain, so therefore it wont happen.

this has potential to be a historical storm, not because of snowfall amounts, but because april snowstorms for the big cities are rare and nyc can break snowfall records if it comes true.

I hope if this verifies someone comes up with an April 2011 sn :P

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QPF looks very good. Storm Vista snowfall output is very impressive again.. .like it was 6Z.. it is producing widespread 6 inch totals, even near NYC.. it even has a couple of 12-18 inch maximums, interestingly near Trenton and then in extreme northern NJ and southeastern NY.. but I am not going to go nuts that we will get those kind of snowfall totals... well, at least not yet.. This time of year, I probably almost have to see it actually happen to believe it. :arrowhead: but hey.. it's possible.. it has happened before.. not too often, but it's not like it's mid April yet

Ray is going to be so pissed off if this happens.

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