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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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Kinda wish this was 24 hours, not 84

This model would be really considered screwed up if it was 24 hours - obviously the model is wrong for whatever reason -might be right with the track ... BUT it should begin to get the right solution which will be rain for NYC metro and mix or snow west and or north of the metro

NWS and Alan Kasper only mentioning rain - the only ones mentioning snow are the 2 ding - dongs over at weatherbell who are priming you guys to start paying into their pro site in the near future...

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January 26th anyone? Dynamic cooling when the low bombs off the coast, everyone knows what happened. Seems like the globals have finally keyed on a single shortwave, with the GFS phasing too strong and too early sending it up through PA but the EURO= awesomeness, just what has to happen for the city and other areas to get snow.

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Epic dynamic cooling... I hope this storm does bomb out in time like the 6z gfs. The track is another issue, but this would be really epic for whoever is under the band

According to this model run would the coastal areas a get a good dump of snow too? It looks like it if the storm does bomb as the the 6z gfs is advertising

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Epic dynamic cooling... I hope this storm does bomb out in time like the 6z gfs. The track is another issue, but this would be really epic for whoever is under the band

Yeah thats one hell of a ccb on the gfs...plus the storms crawals up the coast...sign me up for that. surface and 850's look plenty fine for nyc and jersey. Holmdel elevation for the win?

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According to this model run would the coastal areas a get a good dump of snow too? It looks like it if the storm does bomb as the the 6z gfs is advertising

The Euro and 6z GFS scenario would most likely result in snow even for coastal areas like the city, LI might be on the fringe though. With such a deepening low off the coast and rapid dynamic cooling, snow is possible with strength and track.

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According to this model run would the coastal areas a get a good dump of snow too? It looks like it if the storm does bomb as the the 6z gfs is advertising

Yes....but remember if(and thats a big if) the 06z verbatiam happens we are playing spring rules for a snowstorm. The shore would get snow, but this time of year nw jersey and elevation wins.

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Yes....but remember if(and thats a big if) the 06z verbatiam happens we are playing spring rules for a snowstorm. The shore would get snow, but this time of year nw jersey and elevation wins.

I'm sorry, but I'm wondering if you could explain "spring rules". The only thing I see with the bombing low shown on 6z GFS and it's soundings that screams spring is the fact it will melt quicker after the storm is gone. But you are right, it's an if....

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The 6z GFS Bufkit shows about 10.4" for LGA after some sleet and rain at the start. I think it's overdone and overamplifed. I think we might see rain ending as wet snow in NYC and coast, depending on how fast the low deepens offshore. Probably not more than slushy 1"-2 on the grass.

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I'm sorry, but I'm wondering if you could explain "spring rules". The only thing I see with the bombing low shown on 6z GFS and it's soundings that screams spring is the fact it will melt quicker after the storm is gone. But you are right, it's an if....

The fact if there is a forcast for 6-12 i would take the lower end of the forcast for the shore area and the higher total for elevated areas away from the coast......granted this is a dynamic bomb, but non elevated areas would still have to deal with some issues from spring like storms. Not trying to take accumlation from you, but i highly doubt his area would jackpot in a late season storm.....

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The fact if there is a forcast for 6-12 i would take the lower end of the forcast for the shore area and the higher total for elevated areas away from the coast......granted this is a dynamic bomb, but non elevated areas would still have to deal with some issues from spring like storms. Not trying to take accumlation from you, but i highly doubt his area would jackpot in a late season storm.....

I could care less about accumulations or jackpots this time of year. I'm just happy to be talking about the possibility of 6+ inches of snow in April!!

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CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_105HR.gif

Bufkit for KMMU shows only 6.5" of snow and mostly rain. Temps hover mostly in the 33-35 degree range. Goes to show you how intense the banding really is on the GFS to still get 6.5" of snow with above freezing surface temps and what looks to be very poor ratios. Too bad we couldn't have gotten this a month sooner. Either way I'll take my 6"+ and go home happy.

let's see how much heat I take for this forecast. 3-6" at Central Park. 3-7" for the western burbs. 6-11" for the lower Hudson Valley. 6-12" for interior CT and western MA. Someone in our area could see 12"+ and if I had to guess on the exact location it would be West Milford, NJ. 2-4" on western LI and little to no accumulation far eastern end. (First Call)

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Bufkit for KMMU shows only 6.5" of snow and mostly rain. Temps hover mostly in the 33-35 degree range. Goes to show you how intense the banding really is on the GFS to still get 6.5" of snow with above freezing surface temps and what looks to be very poor ratios. Too bad we couldn't have gotten this a month sooner. Either way I'll take my 6"+ and go home happy.

let's see how much heat I take for this forecast. 3-6" at Central Park. 3-7" for the western burbs. 6-11" for the lower Hudson Valley. 6-12" for interior CT and western MA. Someone in our area could see 12"+ and if I had to guess on the exact location it would be West Milford, NJ. 2-4" on western LI and little to no accumulation far eastern end. (First Call)

I don't know what Bufkit you're looking at, but the 6z GFS spits out 10+ inches across the board from MMU to LGA to JFK to Rutgers to even ATLH in coastal Monmouth County. That is using the Max temp in profile parameter

Even more absurd, it spits out 5-6" at kACY during the storm's height

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I don't know what Bufkit you're looking at, but the 6z GFS spits out 10+ inches across the board from MMU to LGA to JFK to Rutgers to even ATLH in coastal Monmouth County. That is using the Max temp in profile parameter

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L%

======================================================================================================================

110329/0900Z 3 30009KT 25.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110329/1200Z 6 31011KT 26.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110329/1500Z 9 32012KT 38.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110329/1800Z 12 31012KT 44.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110329/2100Z 15 32011KT 42.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110330/0000Z 18 31007KT 32.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110330/0300Z 21 32006KT 30.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110330/0600Z 24 31005KT 29.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110330/0900Z 27 31005KT 28.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110330/1200Z 30 33005KT 30.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110330/1500Z 33 33003KT 42.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110330/1800Z 36 22003KT 48.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110330/2100Z 39 18003KT 40.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110331/0000Z 42 23005KT 36.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110331/0300Z 45 26003KT 33.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110331/0600Z 48 VRB02KT 28.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110331/0900Z 51 VRB02KT 28.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110331/1200Z 54 02005KT 34.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110331/1500Z 57 08005KT 45.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110331/1800Z 60 09007KT 47.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110331/2100Z 63 09008KT 45.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110401/0000Z 66 09006KT 38.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/0300Z 69 07009KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.028|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/0600Z 72 03011KT 34.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.122|| 0.16 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 4| 0| 96

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/0900Z 75 03015KT 32.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.346|| 0.51 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 72| 0| 28

110401/1200Z 78 36017KT 32.0F ZRSN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.244|| 0.75 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 88| 0| 12

110401/1500Z 81 34014KT 32.5F SNOW 19:1| 6.5|| 6.5 0.335|| 1.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110401/1800Z 84 30012KT 33.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 6.5 0.075|| 1.16 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 39| 0| 61

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/2100Z 87 29010KT 34.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 6.5 0.047|| 1.21 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110402/0000Z 90 29012KT 32.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 6.5 0.024|| 1.23 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 9| 0| 91

110402/0300Z 93 30011KT 31.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 6.5 0.000|| 1.23 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110402/0600Z 96 29011KT 28.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 6.5 0.000|| 1.23 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L%

======================================================================================================================

110329/0900Z 3 30009KT 25.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110329/1200Z 6 31011KT 26.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110329/1500Z 9 32012KT 38.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110329/1800Z 12 31012KT 44.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110329/2100Z 15 32011KT 42.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110330/0000Z 18 31007KT 32.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110330/0300Z 21 32006KT 30.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110330/0600Z 24 31005KT 29.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110330/0900Z 27 31005KT 28.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110330/1200Z 30 33005KT 30.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110330/1500Z 33 33003KT 42.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110330/1800Z 36 22003KT 48.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110330/2100Z 39 18003KT 40.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110331/0000Z 42 23005KT 36.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110331/0300Z 45 26003KT 33.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110331/0600Z 48 VRB02KT 28.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110331/0900Z 51 VRB02KT 28.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110331/1200Z 54 02005KT 34.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110331/1500Z 57 08005KT 45.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110331/1800Z 60 09007KT 47.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110331/2100Z 63 09008KT 45.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110401/0000Z 66 09006KT 38.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/0300Z 69 07009KT 36.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.028|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/0600Z 72 03011KT 34.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.122|| 0.16 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 4| 0| 96

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/0900Z 75 03015KT 32.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.346|| 0.51 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 72| 0| 28

110401/1200Z 78 36017KT 32.0F ZRSN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.244|| 0.75 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 88| 0| 12

110401/1500Z 81 34014KT 32.5F SNOW 19:1| 6.5|| 6.5 0.335|| 1.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110401/1800Z 84 30012KT 33.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 6.5 0.075|| 1.16 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 39| 0| 61

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/2100Z 87 29010KT 34.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 6.5 0.047|| 1.21 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110402/0000Z 90 29012KT 32.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 6.5 0.024|| 1.23 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 9| 0| 91

110402/0300Z 93 30011KT 31.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 6.5 0.000|| 1.23 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110402/0600Z 96 29011KT 28.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 6.5 0.000|| 1.23 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hmm, I'm not really sure what to make of that. But, notice how it spits out the 6.5" of snow all in 1 period with a 19:1 ratio. Seems suspect

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Agreed.......when you look at the surface temps its spitting out though they don't really support snow. Strange.

Up here at KSWF it's mostly below freezing.

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L%

======================================================================================================================

110401/0300Z 69 07007KT 37.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110401/0600Z 72 03010KT 34.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.059|| 0.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 62| 0| 38

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/0900Z 75 03012KT 31.6F SNOW 17:1| 4.4|| 4.4 0.260|| 0.33 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110401/1200Z 78 02013KT 31.1F SNOW 15:1| 3.1|| 7.5 0.205|| 0.54 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110401/1500Z 81 35012KT 30.9F SNOW 18:1| 5.5||13.0 0.303|| 0.84 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110401/1800Z 84 33012KT 33.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0||13.0 0.114|| 0.96 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 70| 0| 30

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110401/2100Z 87 31008KT 34.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0||13.0 0.016|| 0.97 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 20| 0| 80

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