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April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

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^^^ the song I had playin on pandora in the background of my iPhone matches that

Perfectly!! Lmfao!

Perfect track IMO, just a lack of precipitation being thrown back..Thickness' seem solid, as well as 850's though.

John, how much precipitation you seeing back into NYC? On my iPhone, so my pix Arent the biggest. Sorry for any contradictory statements

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2m temps are a bit warm given the time of day (18-21z) so we will have to check the soundings..but that was a pretty dramatic shift.

Yep thought the same thing looking at it, but still a drastic step in the right direction. The maps are insane on the euro...playing catch up?

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Decent model consensus starting to emerge now amongst Euro, UKMET, Canadian, and GFS ensemble. All show an intermediate solution and one that is close to what I see as the most likely solution. The 3rd and final shortwave doesn't catch up and phase until the storm is near Nova Scotia. When I say intermediate, I mean that this solution is between a fully phased one with an slower inland track and a 40 mb drop in 24 hours, and a totally suppressed out to sea one.

Note: this is HPC's preferred solution as well: http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html

...SYSTEM INITIALLY JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST...

...TROF AMPLIFYING INTO THE PLAINS/MS VLY WED-THU...

...SFC LOW NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST BY THU NIGHT...

PREFERENCE: COMPROMISE AMONG THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/GEFS MEAN

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Sounds like Apr 9-10, 1996 - that was a dynamic cooling special. It was 36F with light rain in Morristown, NJ and 36F with a light/rain snow mix in Newburgh, NY, while at the same time it was 33F with moderate to heavy snow in Islip, NY and Groton, CT.

The Euro is showing insane dynamic cooling...the 2m temps are colder over the heavy precipitation. At 18z Friday it's 36 at LGA with heavy precip (likely snow) and nearly 40 at Morristown, NJ.

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