Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

April 1st-2nd Nor'Easter Potential


Snow_Miser

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Nice discussion going on here, I'm hooked. This week will be a nail-biter for both systems, but a strong low off the coast will bring snows even to the City with the pattern in place and a High to our northeast, and the Wednesday storm will, if it happens, come off the cold air we've been having since Friday.

Guess this one will be the most highly regarded storm. Such a conducive pattern in place for big snows indeed, but nail-biting and unlikely scenarios as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z gfs - the positive is atleast its not cutting to our west and giving us a massive rainstorm. The potential looks pretty good imo, and i think the chances are dwindling to see a cutter here due to that first lead off wave suppressing heights enough to get the second storm off the coast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regardless of what the scores says, the UKMO is a pathetic model for east coast storms. It was way too cold and too far north last week with the precip and with all the big storms this year it was miserable. These bombs its throwing out are laughable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So much is riding on what happens with the first wave. It's impossible to determine what will happen till the first event is resolved. Either way, the fact that the UKMET, a progressive model is showing such a solution raised an eyebrow. I think strong and inland is more likely than weak and OTS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As bluewave stated it's very late in their range, but the ARW members of the SREF are really liking this system at 87 hrs

they were hitting the first "storm" yesterday too at that time frame. SREFS are just too unreliable at that range. Probably better if they were only run to 48 hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

78 hr NAM has a nice look aloft, might be a bit too disorganized to bring the system up the coast..but it's a nice looking upper air chart with the shortwave diving into the trough to interact with the shortwave that's trailing along the gulf coast.

agree. hr 84 continues with the shortwave diving into north TX / OK to the base of the trough. heights rising along the EC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ARW SREF members are way out of sync with nearly all other SREF members. The coastal low they show Thu afternoon is actually initiated by the first shortwave, which most other models show impacting only the lower mid-Atlantic. They slow down and amplify that shortwave so much that it takes on a negative tilt and begins to phase with the trailing shortwave (the one that most other models use to develop the Fri storm).

You can see this if you look at the 500 mb pattern shown for Wed evening by the ARW SREF members (top row) vs. the other SREF members. Notice how much slower ARW members 1, 2, 4 and 5 are with the shortwave - they place it over IN/OH while nearly all other SREF members have it over western PA/NY at the same time.

post-88-0-09094700-1301327727.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...