cyclone77 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 FWIW, the new RGEM breaks the cap in a big way tomorrow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 12z NAM is showing 0-3km CAPE in excess of 100 J/kg coincident with that area now. Yep, even higher just to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Obviously some capping issues but I've rarely seen a 700-500 mb lapse rate near 9C here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Kind of a novice when it comes to severe wx. What happens for the cap to be overcome? Also is that always an issue before storms can start to fire up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Yep, even higher just to the west. Starting to look more interesting up that way. Question is whether to play the better instability farther west or the better shear farther east. North central Illinois might end up being a good overlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Starting to look more interesting up that way. Question is whether to play the better instability farther west or the better shear farther east. North central Illinois might end up being a good overlap. Ya were thinking Burlington, IA or just east of there in IL with intentions of staying on the IL side after that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Kind of a novice when it comes to severe wx. What happens for the cap to be overcome? Also is that always an issue before storms can start to fire up? The quick and dirty...you need cooling aloft so that you reduce/eliminate the warm layer that blocks air parcels from rising. Surface based thunderstorms typically have a hard time developing in a capped environment. However, if one develops in an uncapped region and then moves into an area that is capped, it doesn't necessarily mean it will dissipate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Kind of a novice when it comes to severe wx. What happens for the cap to be overcome? Also is that always an issue before storms can start to fire up? It's not always an issue, but there are a number of ways it can be overcome. Sufficient heating, forcing (as in a cold front or mid level height falls that could cool the temps aloft), or low level jet forcing can result in elevated storms that form at and above the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Not much else to add to what you guys all mentioned. Looks pretty good over west-central and north-central Illinois later tomorrow. The target area may actually end up pretty close to here, but will have to see how it trends tomorrow. Will definitely be out chasing this one. I agree. I think West Central and North Central IL will be the place to be tomorrow night and i'll definitely be chasing if the potential is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Thanks for the inputs. Hope mother nature delivers for you chasers but with a close encounter with a twister last august here just north of detroit, ill pass on the severe wx and enjoy boating/golf. Don't trust myself enough to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 really think dewpoints are overdone around here for tomorrow(esp on the NAM) models in recent years have been over doing dewpoints in the spring this will reduce the CAPE some that is shown on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 really think dewpoints are overdone around here for tomorrow(esp on the NAM) models in recent years have been over doing dewpoints in the spring this will reduce the CAPE some that is shown on the models Legitimate concern. 60 plus dews are currently over TX and LA. Need strong advection to move them north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 SPC now goes 30% hatched for the affected areas in MO, IA, and IL for Sunday...still slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Sorry to re-direct the area of concern, but what do you guys think about up here along the I-70 corridor in Ohio on Monday afternoon? Frontal timing looks favorable, but looking at BUFKIT the temp profile looks almost vertical with very little cooling aloft. Trying to decide if the shear can overcome that for a decent wind event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Saw this little tidbit from the SGF morning discussion: ONE FINAL COMMENT...THE GULF OF MEXICO IS IN GREAT SHAPE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GULF ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH HAS ALLOWED VAPOR TO RECHARGE AT A FASTER RATE. THIS IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM LAST YEAR...AS THE GULF WATER TEMPERATURES WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL...LEADING TO HARDLY ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE OZARKS APRIL OF 2010. I never heard this, although it makes some sense. Does anyone know how high the correlation is between Gulf water temps and severe weather across Dixie and the southern Plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Saw this little tidbit from the SGF morning discussion: ONE FINAL COMMENT...THE GULF OF MEXICO IS IN GREAT SHAPE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GULF ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH HAS ALLOWED VAPOR TO RECHARGE AT A FASTER RATE. THIS IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM LAST YEAR...AS THE GULF WATER TEMPERATURES WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL...LEADING TO HARDLY ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE OZARKS APRIL OF 2010. I never heard this, although it makes some sense. Does anyone know how high the correlation is between Gulf water temps and severe weather across Dixie and the southern Plains? For one, It allows for more efficient moisture return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Saw this little tidbit from the SGF morning discussion: ONE FINAL COMMENT...THE GULF OF MEXICO IS IN GREAT SHAPE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GULF ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH HAS ALLOWED VAPOR TO RECHARGE AT A FASTER RATE. THIS IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM LAST YEAR...AS THE GULF WATER TEMPERATURES WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL...LEADING TO HARDLY ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE OZARKS APRIL OF 2010. Not really related to your question, but the bolded struck me as slightly odd, since I seem to remember back-to-back HIGH risk days in the Ozarks last April. Of course, if those two days were the only significant events, it still might be considered a quiet month overall. Back on-topic: does anyone know where you can find archived maps of Gulf SST anomalies? I'd be interested in doing a quick rundown of each year's temperatures vs. activity in the Southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Not really related to your question, but the bolded struck me as slightly odd, since I seem to remember back-to-back HIGH risk days in the Ozarks last April. i looked at this past april and found mod risk day just south of SGF forecast area and one day of high risk just east of the area with mod in the area, neither day produced any big events in that forecast area. One day with a slight risk had a decent amount of events with tornados, but other then that it was really slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 i looked at this past april and found mod risk day just south of SGF forecast area and one day of high risk just east of the area with mod in the area, neither day produced any big events in that forecast area. One day with a slight risk had a decent amount of events with tornados, but other then that it was really slow. Ah, you got me... just checked and it was April 30-May 1 I was thinking of, and the first day wasn't even a HIGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 really think dewpoints are overdone around here for tomorrow(esp on the NAM) models in recent years have been over doing dewpoints in the spring this will reduce the CAPE some that is shown on the models +1. I'm not sure dewpoints would even reach 65. Further south they may struggle to reach even 60. The moisture really mixes out well in the warm sector. Time and time again models just do not handle this scenario well. That being said, as LCL heights lower and mid-level cooling erodes the cap tomorrow evening after 0Z, a significant threat may develop across the I-80 corridor (though it wouldn't last long past 03Z due to decoupling). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Figures the 15z SREF skips forecast hour 33, which is 00z tomorrow. Hopefully it dumps in when the run finishes. But it does maintain 30% on the sig. tornado ingredients into 03z now, which is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 OT I just clocked a 46mph wind gusts here in sterling heights, picked up dust it was like a strong thunderstorm, I was really surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 There we go, the 30% bullseye has shifted slightly north and west. Slowing the front down will be good for maximizing heating potential in west central Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 now have a contoured 4 on the SREF STP, up from a 2 from the 9z run. And also a 30 now for both 0z and 3z on the tor ingredients Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 now have a contoured 4 on the SREF STP, up from a 2 from the 9z run. And also a 30 now for both 0z and 3z on the tor ingredients Thanks for posting that, for whatever reason I am unable to post an image here at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Thanks for posting that, for whatever reason I am unable to post an image here at work. No problem. I'm sure by how the day 2 was worded we will see 5% tor probs but I could possibly see them having a small area with a 10% contour if everything works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 now have a contoured 4 on the SREF STP, up from a 2 from the 9z run. And also a 30 now for both 0z and 3z on the tor ingredients Getting more concerned about northern Illinois as there looks to be a favorable window into the mid to perhaps late evening. Threat should be less roughly east of I-55 but you're already into some very populated areas by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Getting more concerned about northern Illinois as there looks to be a favorable window into the mid to perhaps late evening. Threat should be less roughly east of I-55 but you're already into some very populated areas by that point. Ya east of I-39 is when it starts to get quite crowded if you well but with some great, flat chase terrain. around that area and south of 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 LOT THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AROUND MIDDAY AS AN EML MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS WILL LIKELY CAPE THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE ROCKFORD AREA DURING THE EVENING TOMORROW. IT APPEARS THAT A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LEADING TO AROUND 1200-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. OF MORE CONCERN IS IS THE KINEMATIC FIELD. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES UPWARDS OF 40 KT OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS ADVERTISE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL VEERING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND...I THINK THERE WILL BE A TORNADIC THREAT...IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON FOR THOSE STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROUTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 LOT THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AROUND MIDDAY AS AN EML MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS WILL LIKELY CAPE THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE ROCKFORD AREA DURING THE EVENING TOMORROW. IT APPEARS THAT A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LEADING TO AROUND 1200-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. OF MORE CONCERN IS IS THE KINEMATIC FIELD. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES UPWARDS OF 40 KT OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS ADVERTISE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL VEERING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND...I THINK THERE WILL BE A TORNADIC THREAT...IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON FOR THOSE STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROUTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. I always wondered what a good "Caping" would do. "THE AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS WILL LIKELY CAPE THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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