Thundersnow12 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I agree with the majority here that Monday has the potential to bring huge implications to a large part of the SE United States (not to forget the Great Lakes). The one thing I don't like off this morning's 12Z GFS is the rather SSW flow at 500 MB. This makes the wind profile rather unidirectional by Monday evening. However the speed shear is incredible across the region. While this may reduce the tornado threat slightly, I'm becoming very concerned that we could have a widespread, significant severe weather event, the likes of which we haven't seen in a few years. With the widespread warm sector and progged instability values, this event's potential is sky high. The way this system looked off the 12Z GFS, this would easily be one event to remember. Now that I've got the weenie side out, I've posted a more 'down to earth' discussion over on my website at www.TexasStormChasers.com - Click here to read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 I agree with the majority here that Monday has the potential to bring huge implications to a large part of the SE United States (not to forget the Great Lakes). The one thing I don't like off this morning's 12Z GFS is the rather SSW flow at 500 MB. This makes the wind profile rather unidirectional by Monday evening. However the speed shear is incredible across the region. While this may reduce the tornado threat slightly, I'm becoming very concerned that we could have a widespread, significant severe weather event, the likes of which we haven't seen in a few years. With the widespread warm sector and progged instability values, this event's potential is sky high. The way this system looked off the 12Z GFS, this would easily be one event to remember. Now that I've got the weenie side out, I've posted a more 'down to earth' discussion over on my website at www.TexasStormChasers.com - Click here to read it. I agree that the SSW flow is a little discouraging as far as tornado potential goes, but SE flow isn't everything as far as tornado potential goes, and there is still plenty of time for things to change, as the modeling obviously does not have a good handle on this system yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I agree that the SSW flow is a little discouraging as far as tornado potential goes, but SE flow isn't everything as far as tornado potential goes, and there is still plenty of time for things to change, as the modeling obviously does not have a good handle on this system yet. Yeah, if there is some directional shear but a good amount of speed shear in the lowest KM, that has gotten the job done so many times. Especially considering this time we will have moderate to decent instability for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 While the 18z GFS is probably not depicting the system accurately - Monday on the 18z GFS looks hawt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 While the 18z GFS is probably not depicting the system accurately - Monday on the 18z GFS looks hawt! Yeah man, I certainly like that Warm Front being not to far from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I guess I'll take my cold rain here. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I agree with the majority here that Monday has the potential to bring huge implications to a large part of the SE United States (not to forget the Great Lakes). The one thing I don't like off this morning's 12Z GFS is the rather SSW flow at 500 MB. This makes the wind profile rather unidirectional by Monday evening. However the speed shear is incredible across the region. While this may reduce the tornado threat slightly, I'm becoming very concerned that we could have a widespread, significant severe weather event, the likes of which we haven't seen in a few years. With the widespread warm sector and progged instability values, this event's potential is sky high. The way this system looked off the 12Z GFS, this would easily be one event to remember. Now that I've got the weenie side out, I've posted a more 'down to earth' discussion over on my website at www.TexasStormChasers.com - Click here to read it. Agree with what you guys are saying. The trough evolution will be key but there's no denying the potential. It's very unusual to get the amount of instability the GFS is showing so far north this early in the season...and some of those past days are the big boy outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Lifted Index nearing -9 in central Oklahoma. Also no problem with the moisture feed. However, the cap could be a bit of an issue. Still plenty of time to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ironic that CLE's Skywarn training at Findlay is Monday, some severe storms that day would be excellent training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Ironic that CLE's Skywarn training at Findlay is Monday, some severe storms that day would be excellent training. If there is a chance of severe they will probably postpone it. They did that a couple weeks back when Iowa had severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 985 mb low on the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border Sunday evening at 7 pm cdt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 985 mb low on the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border Sunday evening at 7 pm cdt. Sunday is very likely to be an epic waste of "OMG" parameters. It looks very similar to April 5, 2010, which featured an extensive area of EHI values in the 5-10 range over OK/KS... and zero surface-based convection to speak of. With the 10 C isotherm at H7 well east of the dryline and at least up to the warm front latitude-wise, I don't see much hope for this one. What's worse, CINH is still unmanageable on the NAM and GFS, despite both of their depicting unrealistically-high surface dew points in the 65-68 F range. Given the ongoing drought and veered low-level flow through much of the afternoon, I imagine actual surface dew points along the dryline will be more like 62-64 F. Of course, it has to be watched. But without a faster solution that allows for more mid-level cooling before nightfall, I put the probability of significant severe along the dryline or warm front under 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Sunday is very likely to be an epic waste of "OMG" parameters. It looks very similar to April 5, 2010, which featured an extensive area of EHI values in the 5-10 range over OK/KS... and zero surface-based convection to speak of. With the 10 C isotherm at H7 well east of the dryline and at least up to the warm front latitude-wise, I don't see much hope for this one. What's worse, CINH is still unmanageable on the NAM and GFS, despite both of their depicting unrealistically-high surface dew points in the 65-68 F range. Given the ongoing drought and veered low-level flow through much of the afternoon, I imagine actual surface dew points along the dryline will be more like 62-64 F. Of course, it has to be watched. But without a faster solution that allows for more mid-level cooling before nightfall, I put the probability of significant severe along the dryline or warm front under 20%. .....Which may be one thing that helps increase the threat for Monday for areas further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 .....Which may be one thing that helps increase the threat for Monday for areas further east. Yep, normally those epic events are first day busts or overnighters, then the 2nd day is spectacular and the 3rd day is pretty good but not amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Sunday is very likely to be an epic waste of "OMG" parameters. It looks very similar to April 5, 2010, which featured an extensive area of EHI values in the 5-10 range over OK/KS... and zero surface-based convection to speak of. With the 10 C isotherm at H7 well east of the dryline and at least up to the warm front latitude-wise, I don't see much hope for this one. What's worse, CINH is still unmanageable on the NAM and GFS, despite both of their depicting unrealistically-high surface dew points in the 65-68 F range. Given the ongoing drought and veered low-level flow through much of the afternoon, I imagine actual surface dew points along the dryline will be more like 62-64 F. Of course, it has to be watched. But without a faster solution that allows for more mid-level cooling before nightfall, I put the probability of significant severe along the dryline or warm front under 20%. haha I thought of that exact same day, we played the warm front in northern MO and busted, which was a first chase of the year. And to make it worse we watched a monster elevated supercell go across the western burbs into the north side of chicago producing golf ball-tennis ball sized hail. And this would be my first chase this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I'll go ahead and copy over my thoughts from other forums. I'm in pretty good agreement with the "early evening crew" here that Sunday may be a big waste of OMG type parameters. Still, if anything could accidently form and get surface-based... it would be an OMG type of severe thunderstorm. The models are coming into substantially better agreement with this system, compared to the past few days... with the only real problem to figure out now in the data is the exact, precise evolution of the upper-level disturbance... because this will affect exactly how strong the surface low is and where it tracks... and the exact timing for everybody. We've consistently had widespread 1500-2500 j/kg CAPE progged in the warm sector of this system for several days now... which is a really strong signal of the fact that this system, regardless of its exact evolution... should have the kind of thermodynamics over a large area that we haven't seen in a while. Vertical speed and directional shear is also more than adequate for rotating storms over the entire warm sector. I get the idea... with the main forcing not arriving on the Plains on Sunday afternoon or evening, as chasers would like to see... and the extremely strong convective inhibition there on the models... that if any storms do occur ahead of the dryline Sunday, they would likely be further north in the central/southern Plains... closer to the frontal forcing... and mid-level wind trajectories would likely keep these north of much of the area of concern for Monday. The ultimate evolution of the upper-level trough will help dictate how widespread, if at all, any pre-frontal convection is during the day Monday... which would play a role in destabilization... but there's overwhelming support for rich low-level moisture being overridden by a well-established elevated mixed layer and steep lapse rates aloft, given the trajectory of the mid-level winds... regardless of exact trough evolution.We're still pretty far out... and there are many details to be worked out... but after you do this for a while, some of the bigger days really stand out at you... even in the midst of model madness. There are some events where, years later, all you have to do is say a city name... like Xenia or Yazoo City or Greensburg... and everybody knows the specific event you're talking about. I have the feeling that when all is said and done, this may be one of those events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 haha I thought of that exact same day, we played the warm front in northern MO and busted, which was a first chase of the year. And to make it worse we watched a monster elevated supercell go across the western burbs into the north side of chicago producing golf ball-tennis ball sized hail. And this would be my first chase this year lol Yeah, lets put it this way, I work until 8am Monday morning, and I am seriously considering chasing Monday even with the time schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Yeah, lets put it this way, I work until 8am Monday morning, and I am seriously considering chasing Monday even with the time schedule. I can't chase monday so it would have to be the big risk, big reward day sunday. Most of my luck on those days haven't been good but the big day was Bowdle last year where even up to about 12hrs before we thought the cap might hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 GREarth does forecasting now? Also, ****, I have a cloud physics test on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I need to get GREarth...now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Helicity is off the charts in Arkansas and Louisiana for Monday evening at 7 pm cdt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 Dr. Forbes tonight on the weather channel about the severe weather outbreak http://www.weather.com/outlook/videos/widespread-severe-outbreak-expected-20215 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 haha I thought of that exact same day, we played the warm front in northern MO and busted, which was a first chase of the year. And to make it worse we watched a monster elevated supercell go across the western burbs into the north side of chicago producing golf ball-tennis ball sized hail. And this would be my first chase this year lol Yeah I remember that. We busted in northwest Missouri too. It was our second chase, as we had gone after the sup near Keokuk IA the day before. I can't chase Monday either due to training crap we are required to be there for. My only hope is we finish early. Certainly looks pretty good at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 0z NAM is further east for sunday but the cap looks unbreakable as we stand now, maybe something further south along the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 The NAM actually shows Vernon getting close to 100F on Sunday. That would be insane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 The NAM actually shows Vernon getting close to 100F on Sunday. That would be insane... Even if that doesn't verify, I think it's a good signal that there's going to be really strong capping on Sunday. You don't get those kind of temperatures in the northern 1/2 of Texas on April 3rd unless you're behind the dryline... or there's a really stout EML overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Even if that doesn't verify, I think it's a good signal that there's going to be really strong capping on Sunday. You don't get those kind of temperatures in the northern 1/2 of Texas on April 3rd unless you're behind the dryline... or there's a really stout EML overhead. Yeah, to be honest, I'd be very surprised to see anything develop before sundown on Sunday, unless the upper air system speeds up by around 12 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Yeah, to be honest, I'd be very surprised to see anything develop before sundown on Sunday, unless the upper air system speeds up by around 12 hr. Yep with some captain insano type parameters most likely going to waste.. doesn't get much more sexy on a warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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