Stebo Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I don't know if anyone said it yet, but I think with the expanse and amount of reports for wind today a High Risk could have easily been justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 closing in on 500 severe reports today..and with warnings still active and old reports still trickling in..600 seems possible by 12z keep in mind .75 and .88 hail reports don't count anymore so its even more impressive some discrete stuff developing over S AL now 648 by 5z right now. with a new tornado watch just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Just thought I would throw this out there on why yesterday didn't happen in eastern IA. Here are two sfc maps to compare, one from yesterday at 6pm and one from 3/22 (the Creston, IA tornado day) at 6pm. As you can see the 3-22 day looks much better in the low-level flow department as there was backed winds at 20kts south of the warm front...but yesterday we had weaker winds and not much backing at all at the sfc which prevented good low-level rotation in those storms. We had better instability yesterday as it was 77/62 just northeast of the sfc low. IMO the tornado threat would of been alot greater if we had strongly backed winds yesterday ahead of those storms. But who are we kidding, two good days in IA in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Those gusts just looking at the traffic lights/poles were easily over 75mph. I think we will see a lot more adjustments in reports as we go along, I can imagine with how busy the offices were today that there will be fine tuning. I've determined the video is at the intersection of Union Street and 7th Ave North and they're facing east, towards the Cumberland. The Sheraton is to the right and across 7th, the cross street, the Tennessee Tower is directly to their left and behind them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I don't know if anyone said it yet, but I think with the expanse and amount of reports for wind today a High Risk could have easily been justified. I think a MDT risk was good, if there were more sig wind reports a HIGH would've been justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I think a MDT risk was good, if there were more sig wind reports a HIGH would've been justified. 600+ wind reports? How many would justify it if this isn't enough. I think either way there will be more 75+ reports to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 600+ wind reports? How many would justify it if this isn't enough. I think either way there will be more 75+ reports to come Up to 808 wind reports, 908 total reports.(hail tornado and wind)20 tornados and 80 hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I started a thread in the main forum about the soon to be 1000 yes 1000 storm report map http://www.americanw...ort-map-442011/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Up to 808 wind reports, 908 total reports.(hail tornado and wind)20 tornados and 80 hail. 896 wind reports now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I don't know if anyone said it yet, but I think with the expanse and amount of reports for wind today a High Risk could have easily been justified. I believe they base the risks upon the probablity of a severe weather event happening within a 25 mile radius of your location. So in this case a HIGH risk would have seemed justified. But I wonder if they try to keep the the HIGH risk more for dangerous tornado outbreaks or extreme severe wind events associated with derechos. As to not over use them, which I can understand. Here is what I found at the SPC site. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/#3.3 Over all I think SPC did a pretty good job on this one. The MDT risk could have been expanded larger, but it was clear from the PSWO that they were concerned about the expanse of the wind event. PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0405 AM CDT MON APR 04 2011 ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. Here is the verification: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_v_20110404_1200.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I believe they base the risks upon the probablity of a severe weather event happening within a 25 mile radius of your location. So in this case a HIGH risk would have seemed justified. But I wonder if they try to keep the the HIGH risk more for dangerous tornado outbreaks or extreme severe wind events associated with derechos. As to not over use them, which I can understand. Here is what I found at the SPC site. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/#3.3 Over all I think SPC did a pretty good job on this one. Maybe the MDT risk could have been expanded larger, but it was clear from the PSWO that they were concerned about the expanse of the wind event. PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0405 AM CDT MON APR 04 2011 ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. No I agree that normally the high risks are mainly used for tornadic outbreaks, however looking at the reports of structural damage over a wide spread area, this could have easily been justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Wow that is a lot of wind reports. I wonder if that is near a record of wind reports or near the overall severe reports in a day. I think a moderate risk with a 45% hatched area for damaging wind seemed justifiable but a high risk with a 60% hatched area for damaging should not have been of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 RT @stormchaser4850: NWS confirms EF-1 tornado struck Surry County, NC early this morning and damaged 35-40 homes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Nice! Looks like you ended up pretty close to where Thundersnow was. Here's a few more pics from yesterday. The storms were only about a half hour old in the first few pics. These things exploded about as fast as you will ever see. Nothing on the radar to severe in 3-4 scans. EDIT: I love how when you attach images they go in whatever order they want instead of the order you upload them in. These pics aren't in the order I wanted them, but oh well lol. Yea, he actually drove past while I was sitting north of Tipton. Nice pics. By the way, when you have your pics attached there should be an "add to post" button for each attachment on the right hand side of your screen to place them in the post in the spot/order you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Up to 808 wind reports, 908 total reports.(hail tornado and wind)20 tornados and 80 hail. That is extremely impressive. Most reports I can recall was 5/30/04 though I'm not sure if that was actually the highest day ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 That is extremely impressive. Most reports I can recall was 5/30/04 though I'm not sure if that was actually the highest day ever. 4/2/06 (1012) had been the highest in the past 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 4/2/06 (1012) had been the highest in the past 10 years. SPC site only lists 872 for some reason. I looked up 5/30/04 and it had 873. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Wow up to 1227 reports 1126 wind with 6 significant right now, I expect both of those to still go up some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 SPC site only lists 872 for some reason. I looked up 5/30/04 and it had 873. Here is where I got that number. I'm guessing that they adjust the number once monthly storm data is submitted. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2006_annual_summary.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Got my full chase log from Sunday finished finally. See it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2011/04/april-4-5-2011-severe-weather/ Good article off of NWS WFO PAH site today. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.