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April 2nd - April 5th Severe Weather


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This moisture mixing out thing is getting old. I mean, it was expected, but still... and it looks to be an issue for the next couple of systems as well.

It will most certainly take a pattern reloading to develop a legitimate threat with legitimate moisture... that process may take a month.

We'll see. It's hard to say for sure until we get a legitimate, deep trough into the SW that can back low-level flow better. When you have H85 winds out of the WSW over the warm sector all through the morning and most of the afternoon, it's bound to happen. If you believe the GFS and Euro, the system next weekend might be better in this regard; hopefully it will, and we can judge how much the drought is hindering things even when a deep cyclone is in place. But, as I already said last night, I'm fully anticipating a shift to a solution with a retrograding/stuck ULL along the CA coast and then shearing out into the N Plains a few days later -- similar to what happened with the mid-March trough.

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MOC033-041-195-040230-

/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110404T0230Z/

SALINE MO-CARROLL MO-CHARITON MO-

907 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL CHARITON...

CARROLL AND NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 904 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD

NEAR NORBRONE. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF NORBORNE...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

CARROLLTON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...GOLF

BALL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM THROUGH CENTRAL CARROLL

COUNTY.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

922 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

DISCUSSION

921 PM CDT

MESOSCALE UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH STRETCHES ROUGHLY ALONG I-88 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN IL...WHILE STORMS CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. THREAT FROM ELEVATED STORMS TO THE NORTH IS MAINLY LARGE HAIL THREAT...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH INTO WARM SECTOR THE RELATIVELY LARGE SFC TEMP-DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS WILL ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT SOME WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED SINCE EARLIER IN THE EVENING...THUS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPC HAVE REPLACED ORIGINAL TOR WATCH WITH A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH EXTENDS EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND RUNS THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

RATZER

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My pick county for Illinois was La Salle - appears they will be receiving a decent severe storm.

Noticed the SREF probs continue to increase a bit for tomorrows tornado threat - especially for west TN. Trends on the SREF have been to increase and push slightly westward and north a bit on the tornado ingredient probs.

Even as far north as Southern Indiana. I think SPC will go with a hatched 30% area (for damaging winds) from Southern IN into Central Kentucky. Moderate risk for South Central Kentucky into TN Valley...

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check this out

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1006 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN GREEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

AT 1002 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARGYLE...OR 8 MILES EAST OF DARLINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 85 MPH.

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I was shocked SPC lowered probs earlier today - errr well they removed the hatch.

I thought and forecasted south central KY down into TN and northern AL/MS a moderate risk tomorrow.

See how it goes. Agree.

ME TOO! I think they will likely change there tune with the next update in the next three hours.

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check this out

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1006 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN GREEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

AT 1002 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARGYLE...OR 8 MILES EAST OF DARLINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 85 MPH.

WOW! You don't see that to often!

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Storm northeast of Madison being warned for hail up to tennis ball size.

Confirmed

AT 1015 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL

SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEAVER DAM...AND

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

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Awesome chase - multiple wall clouds, 1 rotating. Believe we also saw a gustnado drop down in front of us in Washington, Iowa. We are going to go back and rewatch the video. Hail over golf ball size twice and a 62 mph wind gusts.

I'll post plenty of pics and videos soon but here is one.

post-783-0-64229300-1301888149.jpg

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storm west of Joliet...anyone feel like posting radar/velocity?

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1109 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1104 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN MINOOKA...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MINOOKA...AND MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1116 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1116 PM HAIL CHANNAHON 41.43N 88.22W

04/03/2011 M1.75 INCH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

RT 80 AND 55

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